Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 278
홍차넷
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 18/06/15 06:05:44 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 다시갑시다 |
| File #1 | Summarized_Results.JPG (189.7 KB), Download : 4 |
| Link #1 | https://redtea.kr/?b=3&n=7683 |
| Subject | 2018월드컵 ELO로만 예측해본다면? |
 아래 손금불산입님의 글을 보고서는 그대로 차트를 만들어보았습니다. ELO자료는 아래 글과 같이 https://www.eloratings.net/2018_World_Cup 이곳의 정보를 사용했습니다. 사이트와 마찬가지로 결승전의 K값은 60, 그이외의 경기들의 K값은 50입니다. 결과 계산을 위하여 제가 임의로 정한 몇가지 조건을 추가로 걸었습니다. 1. 홈 어드밴티지를 (레이팅+100점) 받는 팀은 러시아가 유일합니다 2. 조별예선// 승리조건 - 승리기대치 67%이상 무승부조건 - 승리기대치 34~66% 패배조건 - 승리기대치 33% 이하 3. 토너먼트// 승리조건 - 56% 이상 무승부조건 - 45%~55% 패배조건 - 44% 이하 토너먼트의 경우 연장전의 영향을 감안하여 무승부로 끝날 확률이 더 작다고 판단하여 임의로 무승부조건을 더 까다롭게 만들었습니다. 토너먼트에서 무승부 나와서 승부차기 가면은 진출팀 어떻게 정해야할지 생각하기 귀찮아서 그런것도 분명히있었고요. 자 그럼 결과들을 적당히 보아볼까요? 대형이변이 없이 전력대로 결과가 나왔을 경우 올해 월드컵을 예측해보았다고 생각하시면됩니다 (문어다시갑시다) 좌에서 우로 갈수록 조별예선 1경기, 2경기, 3경기// 16강// 8강// 4강// 결승 (3,4위전) 입니다 각 라운드에서 진출한 팀들을 초록색으로 표기했고 임의로 결과를 결정했어야하는 팀들은 노란색으로 떨어진팀들은 흰색입니다. 조별예선) 일단 다행스럽게도 오늘 첫경기에서 러시아가 기대대로 사우디를 격파하면서 아직까지는 ELO 모델이 예측율 100%를 보이고있습니다! 이변이 없다는것을 생각해보면 아주 당연하게도 조별예선을 통과해 16강 진출하는 팀들은 모두다 ELO레이팅 상위권팀입니다 (러시가 +100점인걸 감안해서 말이죠). 이는 적어도 이번 대회에서 피파가 조를 나눈 기준이 전력분포면에서 꽤나 합당했다는 것을 시사하죠. 그럼에도 불구하고 E조 2번째 경기인 브라질-코스타리카 경기는 무려 405점이나 차이가나는 경기입니다. 여기서 브라질이 만약 패배한다면 이번 대회에서 ELO기준으로 가장 큰 이변일겁니다. 이 모델을 기반으로 조별예선 결과가 가장 혼돈인 조는 프랑스/페루/덴마크/호주의 C조입니다. 프랑스, 페루, 덴마크가 호주를 잡고 서로서로 비기는 결과가 나온다는 예측이 나온 조입니다. 꽤나 강력한 우승후보로 예측되는 프랑스인만큼 저도 계산을해보고 놀랐는데, 페루와 덴마크가 다른조의 2/3위권 팀들에 비해서 레이팅이 높아서 생긴 현상인것 같습니다. 이 조에서는 그래서 조별예선이 끝나고 ELO점수가 가장 높은 프랑스와 페루가 진출하는 것으로 결정을하였습니다. (다른조에서도 승점이 같은경우 최종 ELO점수로 판단을하였습니다). 조별예선에서 3전 전승을 기록할것으로 예측되는 팀은 아르헨티나, 브라질, 독일 3팀입니다. 아시아 팀들은 4국 모두 승점 1점으로 조별예선 광탈이 예상되고있습니다... deltaR에서 볼수있듯이 ELO점수면에서 아르헨티나와 러시아가 엄청나게 점수를 쌓아올리면서 꿀을 빨며 올라오는 와중에 프랑스는 크로아티아와 함께 유이하게 점수를 깍아먹으면서 진출을하게됩니다. 누가 운이 좋은건지는 개인의 판단의 영역으로 남기겠습니다 ㅋㅋ 16강) 대진 승리팀 아 추꾸 몰라요 조별예선이 예측대로 결정난다면 16강 대진과 승리자들은 아래와 같습니다. 우루과이-포르투갈 프랑스-크로아티아 브라질-멕시코 잉글랜드-폴란드 스페인-러시아 아르헨티나-페루 독일-스위스 콜롬비아-벨기에 모든 대진이 승리자가 확실한 와중에 마지막 경기인 콜롬비아-벨기에전만이 미궁에 빠져있습니다. 무슨 이유에서든 16강에서 가장 호각인 한경기만 보시겠다! 하시는 분들에게 추천드립니다. 반대로 16강에서 가장 전력차가 많이나는 팀이 한쪽 두들겨 패는거 보고싶다! 하시는분은 브라질-멕시코전을 추천드립니다 (310점 차이 -_-;;). 8강) 포르투갈-프랑스 브라질-잉글랜드 스페인-아르헨티나 독일-벨기에 이럴수가 뻥글랜드가 8강이라니. 잉글랜드와 벨기에가 자리가 뒤바뀌는게 충분히 가능합니다만, 어쨋든 두팀다 8강이 최고치일것으로 보입니다. 쟤네도 브라질, 독일한테는 안되요. 그냥 좋은 경험했다치고 넘어가야지 어쩔수 없습니다. 8강에서 제일 억울한건 아마 프랑스일겁니다. 아직 경기를 하나도 하지 않은 포르투갈과 프랑스는 프랑스가 ELO점수를 17점 차이로 앞서고있습니다. 다만 이 모델의 예측결과에 따르면 프랑스가 조별예선에서 점수를 까먹는 와중에 포르투갈은 열심히 쌓아올리면서 8강이 되면 오히려 포르투갈이 17점 앞서게됩니다. 둘의 페이스가 비슷했어도 예측이 쉽지 않지만 (승리기대치 = 52%) 모르겠으면 ELO 점수로 계산하는 모델의 특성상 포르투갈이 올라갑니다. 스페인 아르헨도 마찬가지로 스페인이 올라가고요. 4강) 포르투갈-브라질 스페인-독일 뭔가 현대축구를 대변하는 팀들이 4강에서 만나서, 축구역사를 가장 잘대변하는 두팀이 결승에서 맞붙습니다. 축구는 90분동안 22명이 모양 빠지게 뛰어서 독일이 승리하는 스포츠죠. 그게 싫으면 브라질 사람 하던가. 이렇게 될 경우 유럽3-남미1의 꾸준한 유럽강세가 이어지고, 아르헨티나가 스페인 대신 올라올 경우 유럽2-남미2의 밸런스가 나오죠. 지금 생각해보니 포르투갈, 아르헨이 올라오면 3,4위전에서 무려 메-호 대전이 펼쳐집니다! 서로 결승전보면서 [내가 없는 곳에서 정상다툼은 의미가 없다]를 시전할수있는거죠. 축구 키보드 워리어들의 여가생활 촉진을 위해서 이게 가장 이상적인 옵션이라고 판단됩니다. 3,4위전) 누가 올라와도 비슷한 애들끼리 비슷하게 놉니다. 메나 호나 다 한물감요 결승) [세계 제일 네이마르] 끗. 모델에 의하면 브라질과 독일만이 전승 우승을 예측할수있는 유이한 국가들입니다. 사실 따지고 보면 브라질이 좀 심각하게 깡패입니다. 결승전 이전까지 가장 작은 ELO 점수차이가 4강에서 167점입니다. 반대편 독일-스페인이 겨우 67점 차이 나는것과 비교해보면 심하죠. 포르투갈 대신 스페인이랑 붙어도 거의 120점 차이납니다. 조별예선에서는 260여점 차이나는 스위스와의 첫경기가 가장 힘든 경기고요. 제가 조별예선에서 토너먼트로 올라오면서 승리 조건을 더 관대하게 만들었습니다. 근데 브라질은 결승까지 모든 경기 승리기대값이 70% 이상입니다. 독일은 4강에서 60%아래로 떨어지는데 말이죠. 즉 토너먼트를 위한 조건 수정이 없어도 전승우승을 여전히 예측해볼수있는건 브라질 밖에 없다는거죠. 자 이제 한달동안 하루하루 이 예측이 파괴되는 것을 보면서, 계산 다시갑시다!를 외쳐주시면 되겠습니다. 감사합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 이 게시판에 등록된 다시갑시다님의 최근 게시물
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106078 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
106078 class='vcm '>
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106078'> itstruelovedontfakeit
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18/06/15 06:38
106078>삭제 주소복사
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네이마르 발롱도르 가나요
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Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
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Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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