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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 난커피가더좋아 |
| Subject | 아주 쉽게 보는 AI 이야기(1) |
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[부제: 이재용 구속을 맞이한 삼성과 엘리엇의 향후 움직임과 관련하여] 아쉽게도 기대해하셨을 인공지능 얘기도, 얼마전까지 나라를 발칵 뒤집어놓았던 조류인플루엔자 얘기도 아닌 대체투자(Alternative Investment) 에 관한 얘기를 해볼까 합니다. (요새 티타임에 경제 카테고리 얘기가 너무 없기도 하고요) 1. 삼성의 "태극기 시위" 사실 박근혜 게이트의 중심 축 중 하나는 국민연금의 '삼성편들기'인데요, 박근혜 대통령의 뇌물죄 성립에 중요한 부분인지라, 다시 예전의 제일모직과 삼성물산의 합병얘기가 많이 나오고 있습니다. 간단히 말해, 삼성물산의 주가를 제일모직 주가의 1/3 수준으로 책정해 진행하는 합병에 대해 삼성물산의 지분을 많이 갖고 있는 행동주의 투자자인 엘리엇을 중심으로 많은 외국계 자본들이 반대를 합니다. 하지만 가장 큰 손인 국민연금이 손해를 감수하면서 삼성 손을 들어주자 '삼성을 위해 국민의 쌈짓돈을 낭비했다. 이는 청와대의 지시에 따라 삼성의 승계를 쉽게 해주고 정유라 지원은 물론 각종 재단 출연금을 받아내기 위한 대가였다'라는 주장이 나왔습니다. 그게 이 논란의 핵심인거죠. 이 일이 벌어진 게 2015년 여름인데, 이때 '주주들에게 해를 끼치는 잘못된 합병'이라는 엘리엇의 주장이 설득력을 얻기 시작하자, 삼성은 각 언론사마다 '태극기'를 전면에 내세운 '국민기업'프레임의 광고를 쏟아냅니다. 그로 인해 여론이 얼마나 바뀌었는지는 모르겠습니다만, 아마도 국민연금의 개입 명분은 만들 수 있었다고 생각했겠죠. 이 과정에서 엘리엇을 무슨 '벌쳐 펀드'인 마냥 공격해대는데, 사실 이건 엘리엇이라는 투자자한테는 매우 억울한 소리였죠. 이게 사실 우리나라의 많은 사람들이 헤지펀드, 가치투자, 대체투자 라는 용어 등을 엄청나게 접하면서도 그 개념틀을 제대로 구분하지 못하거나 정확하게 알고있지 못하기 때문에 벌어지는 일이라는 생각이 들었습니다. 특히 행동주의 투자자본이라는 용어는 '사회활동가'를 지칭하는 영어 'activist'와 같은 단어인 관계로 더욱 '공격적'으로 보이게 만들지요. 다시 얘기가 나오는 김에 저라도 한 번 정리를 해볼까 합니다. 여기에 직접 자산을 운용하시는 분들, 애널리스트들, 경제학자분들도 많지만, 전문가가 아니기에 개념 이해가 쉽지 않았던 제가 오히려 쉽게(다소 단순한 도식화와 오류가 있더라도) 설명을 드릴 수 있지 않을까 싶습니다. 일단 엘리엇이라는 투자자의 특성, 행동주의투자가 뭔지를 알기 위해서는 가장 큰 범주인 '대체 투자'라는 범주를 알아야 합니다. 이걸 이해하는 과정에서 사모펀드니 뭐니 하는 단어도 정확하게 이해할 수 있는 거지요. 2. '대체투자'란 무엇인가? '대체( Alternative Investment)'란 원래 '전통'과 '본류'가 있을 때 성립할 수 있는 말입니다. '대안적 정책'이라는 말 등 에서 알 수 있듯이. 그럼 전통 혹은 본류적인 투자란 무엇일까요? 사실 전통적 투자는 굉장히 단순한 것입니다. 이 전통투자를 제외한 모든 것이 대체투자이며 전통적 투자와 달리 대체투자은 그 종류를 셀 수 없고 지금 이 시간에도 새로운 투자 방식이 탄생하고 있습니다. 따라서 '전통적 투자'가 무엇인지를 정의하고 그 외의 투자를 '대체 투자'라고 정의해야 합니다. 마치 "손을 크게 벌려 원을 그려봐. 세상에서 그걸 뺀 만큼 너를 사랑해"라고 하듯이 원을 정확하게 그려 '전통적 투자'를 정의한 후 그걸 뺀 투자의 세상 전체를 대체투자로 보는 것이죠. 이것 외에는 대체투자를 정의할 방법은 없는 것으로 알고 있습니다. (이 분야 최고 전문가로부터 설명을 들은 것이니 나름 자신 있는 부분입니다.) 그럼 전통적 투자란 무엇일까요? 이건 오직 주식/채권에만 투자하는 것을 말합니다. 그리고 심지어 조건도 있습니다. 첫째, 투자대상이 공모(상장)된 주식과 채권이어야 한다. 둘째, 투자 방법에 기교가 없어야 한다. 즉 상승을 예상하고 투자하고 이로 인한 수익을 얻는다.(공매도 등의 방법은 상장된 주식에 투자하더라도 전통적 투자로 보지 않는다고 합니다.) (혹시나 몰라서 공매도 용어설명 링크 http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=1199626&cid=40942&categoryId=31830) 셋째, 레버리지, 헷징 기술 등을 사용하면 안된다. 레버리지는 대부분 정확하게 아시지만 헷징은 오해가 좀 많은 개념인데요, 일단 사전적 정의는 [가격변동으로 인한 손실을 막기 위해 실시하는 금융 거래행위]인데요, 이건 뭐 광범위해서 하나마나한 얘기이고 오히려 전통적 투자에서 쉽게 이해하려면 '주식이나 채권 고유의 리스크/수익을 뒤트는 기술'로 보는 게 쉽습니다. 모든 투자에는 리스크와 리턴이 존재하는데 이게 원래 정해진 대로 이뤄지지 않도록 다양한 기술을 방법을 쓴다는 건데, 이걸 하지 않고 '우직하게 정석대로'투자하는 것만 전통적 투자의 범주에 들어갑니다. (혹시나 몰라서 레버리지 용어설명 링크 http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=3431620&cid=58438&categoryId=58438) 이걸 빼고 나머지는 다 대체투자입니다. 종류가 어마어마하겠죠? 그래서 다시 대략적으로 구분을 해서 살펴볼 필요가 있습니다. 다음 번에는 대체투자(AI)를 크게 네 분류로 나눠보고 그 과정에서 워런 버핏은, 엘리엇은, '흔히 말하는 투기자본'은 각각 어디에 속하는지를 살펴보겠습니다. (다음 편에 계속) 읽어주셔서 감사합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 7
이 게시판에 등록된 난커피가더좋아님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
72916 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
72916 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
72916'> 신문안사요
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
17/03/05 12:25
72916>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
Atificial Intelligence인줄 알았는데 그건 아니었군요 그래도 빅쇼트 한번 봤더니 이해가 갈거 같기도 하네요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
72916>
72916>
