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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 21/08/18 17:13:44 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | Picard |
| Subject | 다음 대선은 양강구도? 다자구도? |
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안녕하세요. 정치 이야기 좋아하는 아재입니다. 뉴스만 퍼다가 의견 달다가 오랫만에 풀타임 잡담입니다. 엊그제 누가 그러더군요. 내년은 양자구도라고... 대선은 다자와 대선을 반복해왔다고 합니다. 그런가? 하고 민주화 이후를 따져보니... 13대 : 노태우-김영삼-김대중-김종필 (???) 14대 : 김영삼-김대중-정주영 (보수1, 진보1, 중도1) 15대 : 김대중-이회창-이인제 (보수2, 진보1) 16대 : 노무현-이회창 (양강) 17대 : 이명박-정동영-이회창 (보수2, 진보1) 18대 : 박근혜-문재인 (양강) 19대 : 문재인-홍준표-안철수-유승민-심상정 (진보2, 보수2, 중도1) 노태우가 민주화 이후인가? 는 좀 애매하지만.... 이렇게 보니 지난 대선이 역대급 다자구도였네요. 그래서 이번에는 양강구도 차례랍니다. 그런데, 돌아가는 꼴을 보면 내년 대선도 역시 다자구도일 것 같습니다. 2강(국힘-민주), 2약(국당-정의) 겠지만요. 이정도면 양강구도로 봐줘야 할까요? 그런데, 민주-정의는 절대 단일화 안될거라고 봅니다. 양당의 열혈 지지자들이 서로를 증오합니다. 민주당 열혈 지지층은 정의당을 개혁을 발목 잡는 국힘 2중대라고 하고, 정의당 열혈 지지층은 민주당이 국힘이랑 다를게 뭐냐고 합니다. 이쪽은 후보가 사퇴를 해도 단일화 효과 안날거에요. 민주당은 정의당 지지율인 5%는 무조건 까고 가야 합니다. 단일화 된다고 해도 움직이는 표는 2% 남짓할겁니다. 이정도면 그냥 가자고 열혈지지층이 난리칠거라... 한편, 국힘-국당은 무조건 단일화 갈겁니다. 지난 대선하고 18년 서울시장 선거에서 국당 안철수 대표도 배운게 있잖아요. 그래서 이번 보궐에 조건 없는(?) 단일화를 했죠. 그리고 승리 했지만, 몇달후 결과를 보면 국당은 승리한게 아닌게 되어버렸으니 하나 더 배웠을거에요. 안철수가 돈이 많다고 해도 정주영, 정몽준 보다는 없습니다. 내년 대선의 선관위 공식 선거비용은 500억 정도입니다. 하지만, 공식적인 선거비용 외에 나가는 돈이 꽤 된다는게 정치권 통설입니다. 지난 대선때 국당이 공식적으로 460억을 썼고, 21%를 받아서 전액 보전 받았지만 비공식적인 비용으로 못해도 수십억은 썼을거거든요. 게다가 지금은 지지율이 전액 보전되는 15%는 커녕 반액 받는 10%도 될까 말까 하니까, 절대 그 돈 못씁니다. 안철수 대표가 정치 초기에 자기 돈보고 정치하면서 돈 써야 한다고 하던 사람들 불신하면서 안철수 대표가 너무 날로 정치하려고 한다는 찌라시가 돈적이 있습니다. 그후 국민의당 창당하면서 30-40억 썼는데, 사비를 쓴게 아니라 국당에 채무로 잡아놔서 총선 끝나고 대부분 회수 했다는 건 유명한 이야기니까요. 문제는, 국힘 경선이 시작하기도 전부터 이준석 대표 vs 윤석열 프레임으로 짜여지면서 윤총장이 경선에서 이기더라도 후유증이 남을 상황이 되어버렸습니다. 안철수 대표에게는 유리하게 되었죠. 이준석의 젊음과 개혁을 지지하는 반문유권자들이 윤총장에게서 떨어져 나오면 누구에게 가겠습니까? 오리지널 반문인 안철수 대표밖에 더 있겠습니까? 안대표는 이준석 대표와 윤총장의 싸움을 팝콘 씹으면서 즐기고 있을지도 모르겠네요. 안철수 대표는 국힘 후보가 결정되면 당무우선권을 이용해 후보간에 이야기 하자고 하면서 이준석 대표에게 당한 수모를 돌려주려고 할테죠. 만약, 국힘 후보가 지금처럼 윤총장이 되면, 서로 기존 정치권에 대한 혐오를 갖고 있는 사람들이기에 의외로 확~끈하게 대화가 통할수도 있습니다. 윤총장과 안대표간에 대선은 윤총장이 대통령, 안대표가 차기당대표라는 이면계약을 맺을 수도 있겠지요. 일단, 지금까지 돌아가는 상황을 보면 윤총장과 이대표는 이제 다시 화해하면서 이대표의 특기인 친화력으로 윤총장과 사이를 복구하기는 너무 멀리와버렸다고 생각이 되고요. 윤총장이 후보가 되면 이대표는 식물대표가 될테고, 내년 3월에 윤총장이 대통령선거 이기면 5월 지선도 친윤계가 당권 잡고 공천할테고 지선 끝나면 바로 당대표 선거 들어가는데 대통령이 밀어주는 안철수가 국힘 먹기 딱 좋은 구도 아닙니까. 안철수가 지지율을 얼마나 끌어올리느냐에 따라 이 시나리오가 현실화 될지, 아닐지..... 이준석 대표도 당연히 내년 지선까지 바라보고 있을것이기 때문에... 안철수 대표를 어떻게 견제할지 궁금합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 Picard님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
161432 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
161432 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
161432'> 맥주만땅
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/08/18 17:19
161432>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
양강구도라고 봅니다.
다자구도가 되려면 강력한 제 3자가 있어야 하는데, 지금으로 보아서는 양당의 지원없이 독자생존가능한 후보가 많아보이지 않습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
다자구도가 되려면 강력한 제 3자가 있어야 하는데, 지금으로 보아서는 양당의 지원없이 독자생존가능한 후보가 많아보이지 않습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
161432>
161432>
