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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 과학상자 |
| Subject | 탈원전은 없었다. |
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https://youtu.be/XTINOLfscVE https://m.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/economy_general/1006784.html?_fr=nv 제목이 자극적이지만 평소에 관심있던 내용을 상세히 다룬 기사가 있어 소개합니다. 유튜브 영상에 시각자료가 있어 보기 편한데, 활자화된 기사만 보셔도 충분합니다. 뉴게에 올릴까도 했지만 더 이야기하고 싶은 부분도 있어서, 내용 요약과 함께 몇가지 덧붙여 씁니다. 문재인 정부 시작부터 있었던 탈원전 논란은 탈원전 때문에 미세먼지가 증가한다, 전기요금 오른다, 전력난이 온다, 원자로 짓던 두산중공업 망한다, 태양광 발전 짓는다고 멀쩡한 산 갈아 엎는다 하며 숱한 공격을 받았지만, 사실 탈원전은 시작도 하지 않았습니다. 문재인 정부의 탈원전 계획이라 함은, 설계수명이 다한 노후원전을 연장가동하지 않고 새로운 원전을 더 짓지 않기로 하여 60년에 걸쳐 원전 발전 비율을 점차적으로 줄여가는 것입니다. 계획에 의하면 현시점 관측으로 이미 건설중인 원전들이 완공되는 2025년까지 원전설비는 증가할 예정입니다. 탈원전의 영향은 현재로서는 전혀 있을 수가 없는 시점입니다. 유일하게 원전설비가 줄어든 것이 있다면 2018년도에 영구폐쇄된 월성1호기가 있지요. 그런데 월성1호기가 2018년도에 전체 발전량에서 차지하던 비율은 0.6%에 불과했습니다. 또 멀쩡한 발전소 폐쇄했다고들 하지만, 사실 월성 1호기는 멀쩡하지 않았습니다. 우리 나라에서 두 번째로 오래된 원전이고, 30년의 수명이 2012년에 이미 지났습니다. 가장 오래된 원전이었던 고리1호기는 우여곡절을 겪다가 박근혜 정부 시기에 영구정지가 결정되어 2017년 5월 폐쇄되었습니다. 월성 1호기는 2009년에 수명연장이 신청되었고 2012년에 수명이 지나 가동중단되었다가 2015년 수명연장하기로 해서 재가동되지만 2017년 2월 법원에서 수명연장이 무효라고 판결합니다. 수명연장을 결정하는 과정에서 안정성 평가시 이미 월성 2호기(1997년 준공)의 설계기준으로 사용된 최신의 기준을 사용하지 않고 과거(1983년)의 기준을 사용했으며, 계속운전을 위한 허가과정에서 필요자료가 누락되었고, 적법한 절차 없이 원안위 사무처 과장의 전결로 처리하는 등 위법이 있었다는 이유였습니다. http://m.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/marketing/922383.html 월성 1호기 수리에 6000억원 정도가 들었는데 폐쇄하는 바람에 몽땅 날렸다고 하지만, 6000억원을 투입하는 결정 자체가 위법이었습니다. 수명연장신청을 하기도 전에 설비교체를 시작했거든요. 이미 부적법한 절차로 돈을 투입해놓고 매몰된 돈이 있으니 연장해야 한다는 결정을 내린 겁니다. 거기에 재가동된 2016년도에도 설비고장으로 2차례나 정지된 적이 있었고, 원자로 건물, 설비에서 계속 결함이 발견됩니다. 올해초 월성원전 부지 내 삼중수소 누출에 대한 보도가 나왔는데 당장 심각한 수준의 방사능이라고는 못해도 정상적인 상황에서 검출되지 말아야 할 정도이긴 합니다. 일단 왜 검출되는지 파악을 못한다는 게 문제가 크죠. 더군다나 2016년, 2017년에 경주, 포항 일대에 지진이 연속적으로 발생해 노후화된 원전의 안전에 대한 우려가 높아지고 있었습니다. 월성은 경주에 있거든요. 결국 문재인 정부 들어서 탈원전 추세에다 기존의 법원 판결도 있고 하니 2018년 6월부터 가동이 중단되고 이후 심사를 거쳐 영구폐쇄가 결정됩니다. 논란이 되었던 경제성 평가 조작이라는 것은 뭘까요? 감사원은 월성 1호기의 경제성 평가의 신뢰도를 떨어뜨릴 문제가 발견됐다고 했고, 월성 1호기를 계속 가동할 때의 이익을 224억으로 낮춰 잡았다고 지적했습니다. 전력 판매단가를 낮춰 잡아서 경제성이 불리하게 나오게 계산되었다는 건데, 감사원의 지적대로 한다면 1088억으로 늘어나긴 한답니다. 1088억이나 이익이니까 계속 가동해야 하는 것 아니냐 할 수 있지만, 박근혜 정부 때 폐쇄 결정된 고리 1호기의 사례를 보면, 계속 가동했을 때의 이득을 1792억 내지 2688억으로 계산했음에도 폐쇄를 했죠. 경제성 뿐만 아니라 안정성을 함께 고려했기에 가능했던 결정이었겠죠. 월성1호기에 대해서도 박근혜 정부 때 경제성을 평가한 자료가 있더군요. 2014년도에 국회예산정책처에서 제출한 보고서의 결과입니다  연장해서 이용률을 90% 이상 유지할 때 순편익이 -1462억 수명연장 안할 때 순편익이 -1697억이니 연장해도 적자, 연장 안해도 적자지만 연장하면 235억 덜 적자네요. 85% 미만이면 오히려 적자가 더 늘어나구요. 그런데 2016년 월성 1호기 가동률은 53%에 불과했죠. 더 자세히... https://m.pressian.com/m/pages/articles/120384 https://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=141041 이렇듯 경제성 평가라는 게 어떤 한 가지 방법이 있는 게 아니고, 어떻게 계산하느냐에 따라 이득이 되기도 하고 손해가 되기도 하고 해서 말이 많았습니다. 아무튼 그때는 프레시안 뿐만 아니라 조선일보도 경제성 문제 있다는 식으로 보도했고, 새누리당 의원들도 연장을 반대했어요. 하태경이 열일했었네요? https://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2015/02/27/2015022701660.html http://www.kbmaeil.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=343179 어쨌든 월성1호기 영구폐쇄도 탈원전이라면 탈원전이겠죠. 그래도 멀쩡하다고만 할 수 있는 원전 폐쇄한 건 아니라고 이야기하고 싶습니다. 의사결정 과정에 절차 하자가 있었다는 지적은 가능하지만, 이미 선행된 절차하자가 있었으며 지난한 공방이 있었다는 것도 함께 알았으면 좋겠습니다.  처음의 한겨레 기사는 현재 세계 각국의 원전 현황도 이야기하고 있는데, 실제로 다른 나라에서도 탈원전이 추진되어 원전이 줄어들고 있으며 후쿠시마 사태 이후 원전이 늘어나고 있는 나라는 중국, 러시아, 인도, 파키스탄에 이어 우리나라 정도라는 점을 언급하고 있네요. 또 후쿠시마 사태 이후 안전비용이 수직 상승하여 원전의 경제성도 이전 같지 않다고 지적합니다. 일본 경제산업성에서 7월에 발표한 자료에 의하면 2030년에는 원전의 발전단가가 태양력, 풍력보다 비싸지게 된다고 예측했습니다.  https://n.news.naver.com/article/028/0002552352 보다 최신 자료에 의하면 태양력, 풍력에 추가비용이 가산되어 여전히 원전이 우위를 유지하지만 적어도 화력에 비해서는 경제성이 떨어지게 되네요.  https://n.news.naver.com/article/469/0000621820 여튼 탈원전은 본격적으로 시작하지 않았습니다. 탈원전의 영향은 적어도 2025년 이후에 받을 수 있을 겁니다. 이후에도 다른 에너지원으로 전환하는 것이 원활치 않다면 다시 노후원전 수명을 연장하거나 부지확보까지 되었다가 중단된 신규원전을 건설하는 등 계획 수정은 불가피하겠죠. 한겨레 기사는 보수언론의 탈원전 비판을 괴벨스식 선동이라고 주장하는데, 저도 어느 정도 공감합니다. 언론들의 가혹한 비판도 유용한 구석이 있다는 생각이지만, 반대 의견도 좀 다루어졌으면 하는 생각입니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 12
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
161104 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
161104 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
161104'> moqq
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/08/09 08:12
161104>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
좋은 글 감사합니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
161104>
161104>
