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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 눈부심 |
| Subject | 만장일치의 역설 |
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출처 : http://phys.org/news/2016-01-evidence-bad.html 고대 유대인들의 법에 의하면 판사들이 어떤 판결을 만장일치로 결정하면 피의자는 죄를 면할 수 있었다고 해요. 논리가 이상해 보이지만 당시 법률제정자들은 만장일치는 종종 판결의 정확함보다는 법률체계에서 문제가 발생했음을 의미하는 것이라고 생각했다고 해요. 그냥 직관적으로 too good to be true의 경우 분명 실수가 있었을 것이라고 생각했다고 합니다. Lachlan Gunn씨 등 연구일행들이 ‘만장일치의 역설’이라는 이름으로 최근에 논문을 출판했는데요. 논문 왈, 너무 많은 개개인의 목격자들이 어떤 범죄의 피의자를 만장일치로 지목하면 우리는 보통 그 피의자가 범인이 틀림이 없다고 생각합니다. 만장일치를 상당히 신뢰하는데요. 그치만 실제로 많은 사람들이 모두 의견 일치를 보일 확률은 적어요. 따라서 우리의 확신에는 뭔가 잘못된 점이 있는 거죠. 만장일치의 역설이 보여주는 것은 바로 사람들의 확신은 그들이 믿는 것만큼이나 정확하지 않다는 거예요. 이를테면, 경찰에서 용의자를 한 줄로 늘어놓고 목격자들로 하여금 피의자를 지목하라고 했을 때 의견이 만장일치할수록 피의자를 정확하게 가려내는 확률이 적었음을 연구자들이 보여주었어요. 피의자를 지목하는 과정에서 생기는 체계적 실수란 건 경찰이 용의자들을 보여주는 방식이라든지 목격자 자신이 가지고 있는 개인적 바이어스 등 모든 종류의 바이어스를 의미하는데요. 아주 미미한 정도의 바이어스도 결과물에 지대한 영향을 끼친다고 해요. 용의자들 중 단 1%가 특정 피의자에 대한 바이어스를 노출하기만 해도, 보통 목격자 세 명이 만장일치로 피의자를 지목한 정도로는 꽤 정확하지만 더 이상의 목격자의 일치하는 지목이 정확할 확률이 줄어들어 버린다고 합니다. 우리의 직관과는 반대로, 목격자 중 한 사람이 남들과 다른 사람을 피의자로 지목하면 다른 많은 목격자들이 지목한 피의자가 범인일 확률이 더 높아진다고 하고요. 이런 논리는 수학적으로 베이즈 확률을 이용하면 설명이 가능하고요. 다시 말해, 만장일치란 건 확률적으로 매우 드물게 일어나는 경우이니 그런 일이 발생한다면 시스템에 문제가 있음을 인지할 필요가 있다는 거예요. 만장일치가 늘상 의심할 만한 건 아니에요. 바이어스가 있을 확률이 아예 없거나 거의 없는 환경에서는 만장일치가 정확성을 담보합니다. 사과를 바나나들 사이에 두고 사과를 고르라고 하면 쉽게 사과를 만장일치로 골라내듯이요. 범인이 도망가는 모습을 목격한 많은 사람들의 경우 만장일치의 확률이 낮을수록 정확한 데이타를 제공하겠지만 인질로 잡혀 있었다거나 범인과 오랫동안 생활한 사람들의 경우 만장일치로 범인을 지목하겠죠. 만장일치의 역설은 법적 영역뿐 아니라 다른 많은 영역에서 적용이 가능한데요. 그 중 하나가 컴퓨터 암호 해독영역이에요. 이건 뭐라고 뭐라고 써놨는데 무슨 말인지 몰르겠음;; 다른 재밌는 예들도 있어요. 폭스바겐 스캔달이 그 예. 회사측에서 컴퓨터조작을 통해 실제 배기가스양보다 적은 수치가 나오도록 해놓았는데 그걸 검사하는 사람들이 들여다보기에 차의 연식이 오래됐든 새차든 배기가스배출량이 한결같이 낮더래요. 그게 되게 이상했대요. 다른 유명한 예로는, 유럽에서 1993년과 2008년 사이에 어떤 사건에 대해 too good to be true한 증거들이 쏟아져 나온 적이 있어요. 프랑스, 독일, 오스트리아에 걸쳐 15군데의 범죄현장에 똑같은 여성의 DNA가 발견된 거예요. 이 희한한 살인자는 증거는 완벽한데 결코 잡히는 법이 없었죠. 알고 보니 DNA검사 중 일어난 실수 때문이었어요. DNA검사에 사용된 면봉이 한 사람의 DNA에 의해 오염이 됐는데 그 면봉을 생산하는 공장의 여자직원 거였어요. 선거의 경우, 박빙으로 패하면 안타까워들 하죠. 큰 차로 이겼으면 얼마나 좋았을까 바라마지 않고요. 그치만 너무 큰 득표차로 이기는 선거는 그만큼 부정선거일 확률이 높아요. 푸틴은 140%의 득표율로 선거에서 승리! 과학에서 가설과 실험은 공생관계이며 서로를 지지해야 마땅하지만 모든 실험에는 늘상 문제가 있을 수 있는지라 에러가 일어날 수도 있는 거예요. 역사상 유명한 과학실험들이 있었는데 게중에 too good to be true한 실험들이 많았어요. 그런 실험들일수록 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 논란의 여지도 많았어요. 큰 조직의 회의에서 보통 어떤 아이디어에 대해 만장일치의 의견을 보여주길 기대하는 경향이 있어요. 직원의 진급을 결정하거나 수행평가를 할 때 회의장 모든 사람들이 동의할 때까지 의견들을 개진합니다. 반대의견이 한 두 사람으로 좁혀지면 대충 만장일치라고 보고 넘어들 가버립니다. 이 논문이 주는 교훈은 반대의견의 목소리도 존중되어야 한다는 것이겠네요. 회의 중 반대의견이 있다면 다름을 수용하고 이견이 있었음을 기록해 두는 거죠. 이견이 있다는 건 부정적이기만 한 것이 아니라 시스템 상의 실수가 덜하다는 긍정적 현상이니까요. 유진 위그너는 수학이 물리이론을 너무 완벽하게 설명하는 것이 참 이상하다고 말한 적이 있어요. too good to be true인 거죠. 근데 실제로 현대기계는 완벽한 수학적 등식보다는 소프트웨어를 통해 시뮬레이션을 해봄으로써 생긴 경험적 공식들을 이용해 분석을 합니다. 수학보다는 빅데이타나 기계학습(machine learning)내용을 들여다 보고요. 수학적 분석은 모든 문제에 맞는 완벽한 도구는 아니에요. 수학이란 것도 우리가 몰라서 그렇지 거부된 공식도 많고 우리가 체리 피킹하듯 선택적으로 이용하고 있죠. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 10
이 게시판에 등록된 눈부심님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
27859 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
27859 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
27859'> 레지엔
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
16/01/11 12:36
27859>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
하지만 MLB 명예의 전당이 100%가 안나오는 건 도저히 납득이 안됩...
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
27859>
27859>
