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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | MANAGYST |
| File #1 | 3.png (102.8 KB), Download : 13 |
| File #2 | 2_(1).jpg (51.1 KB), Download : 10 |
| Subject | 성장률 하향은 왜 일상다반사가 되었나? |
  http://managyst.com/220501674681 어제 IMF에서 세계경제전망을 하향조정했습니다. 그리고 그 이유가 중국경제 둔화와 美연준의 금리인상 우려 때문이랍니다. 속으로 이런 억지가 어디있나? 싶어서 비유를 만들어 봤습니다. 무엇이 원인이고, 무엇이 결과인가? "효석아.. 이번 기말고사 왜 이렇게 못봤니?" "모르는 문제가 나와서요. 그리고 추가시간을 안주고 정시에 시험이 끝나서요." 위 예에서 이야기했던 변명은 원인이라기 보다는 차라리 결과에 가깝습니다. 모르는 문제가 나왔다는 것은 공부를 안했다는 것의 결과이고, 추가시간을 안줬다는 것은 시험시간이 다 끝났기 때문이죠. 중국경제 둔화는 그동안의 작동해왔던 성장모델이 수명을 다했기 때문에 나타난 결과이지 원인이 아닙니다. 美연준의 금리인상 역시 이미 수년동안 나타난 경기 회복의 결과일뿐 그 자체가 원인은 아닙니다. (저를 포함한 대부분의 사람들은 느끼지 못했겠지만 말이죠) 그럼 성장률 전망치를 왜 이렇게 계~~~~~속 하향조정되나? 이유는 아주 간단합니다. 이렇게 경제가 안 좋을 줄 지난번에 예측할 때는 몰랐기 때문입니다. 아니... 그걸 왜 몰랐냐구??!!! 사람이기 때문이죠. ㅡ.ㅡ; 이코노미스트들로 만나보면, 다 똑같은 사람일 뿐입니다. 사람이 미래를 어떻게 알아요? 주글래? 좀 더 폼나는 설명 없어? 쪼금 더 폼나는 용어 "Anchoring Effect"에 대해서 설명을 드리겠습니다. 아래 그림은 미국의 경제성장률과 애널리스트들의 예측입니다. 놀라운 사실은 실선(예측)이 점선(실제치)을 완벽하게 후행한다는 것입니다. 반대라면, 예측이 맞았다고 볼 수 있겠지만, 실제로는 "예측은 실제 경제성장률을 보고 따라한 것에 불과했다"라고 할 수 있겠네요. 그림을 다시 보니, 참... 비참할 정도로 틀렸네요. 암튼 Anchoring bias가 뭐냐? 닻내림 효과 정도로 번역할 수 있을 것 같은데요. 반대로 여러분이 올해 세계경제 성장률을 예측한다고 생각해보세요. 그럼.. 멘땅에 헤딩할 수는 없으니, 제일 먼저 찾아보는 것이 아마 작년 경제성장률일겁니다. 즉, 작년 경제성장률에 닻을 내린다는 거죠. 그리고 그 숫자에서 이래저래 더하기 빼기해서 숫자를 하나 만들어내죠. 그게 일반적인 방식입니다. 배가 닻을 내린 주변을 빙빙돈다고 해서 Anchoring 이라고 합니다. 그래서 경제성장률이 계속 하락하는 구간에서는 그 하락폭을 쫓아가지 못해서 뒤늦게 추가로 하향조정하는 일이 발생합니다. 다른 Bias들은 아래 글을 참고하시구요 ^^; http://managyst.com/60204207542 보다 근본적인 이유에 대해서는 기존에 설명해둔 자료를 긁어왔습니다. 참고해주세요 여러분이 경제와 관련된 신문기사를 보면서 제일 자주 봤을 법한 문장은 다음과 같다. "올해 경제성장률은 당초 전망보다 부진한 3.0%를 기록할 것으로 보입니다." 등등 "예상보다 안 좋다"는 이야기를 너무 오랫동안 들어왔음. 물론 지겹긴 하지만, 새롭진 않아. 이를 설명하기 위해 아래 그림을 참고 (Y축 물가 상승률, X축 성장률) 위 그림에서 빨간색 네모(2004~2007)가 파란색 네모(2012~2015)보다 옆으로 누워있음 빨간색 구간은 성장률이 증가하는 것보다 물가가 천천히 올랐다는 걸 의미. 즉, "성장률이 높이져서 좋은데, 물가까지 안정되니 더 좋다"가 됨. 파란색 구간에서는 성장률이 둔화되는 것보다 물가가 빨리 내려가고 있다는 것을 의미. 즉, "성장률이 둔화되서 안좋은데, 물가는 더 내려가니 더 걱정"이 됨. Why? 빨간색 구간에서 중국의 역할이 중요했음. 중국이 뭐든 싸게 만들어 주면서 물가 부담 없이 성장할 수 있는 환경을 만들어 주었기 때문. 반면, 파란색 구간(지금 우리가 살고 있는 지금 이시대)에는 빨간색 구간에서 만들어졌던 과잉 공급이 해소되지 못은 상황에서 소비가 늘어나기 매우 어려운 처지. 때문에 성장률도, 물가도 계속 떨어지기만 하는 것. 소비는 왜 안 늘어나나? 그리고 왜 자꾸 경제 전망은 틀리나? 1) 기본적으로 경제주체들이 부채가 많은 것이 가장 큰 이유. 그래서 과거를 기준으로 "경제가 이만큼 좋아지면, 돈을 이만큼 쓴다" 이런 논리가 잘 안 맞게 됨. 리차드 쿠 아저씨 이야기랑 일맥 상통~ 2) 또 사람들이 여전히 저축만 많이 하는 이유는 Job 의 Quality가 안좋기 때문. 언제 짜릴지 모르는 상황에서 흥청망청 돈을 쓸 순 없으지 않소~! http://managyst.com/220402248490 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3 이 게시판에 등록된 MANAGYST님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
17228 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
17228 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
17228'> 삼공파일
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/10/07 09:28
17228>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
전망치라는 건 후망치였군요...
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
17228>
17228>
