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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
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티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 20/04/20 09:45:32 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | rknight |
| Subject | 민주당의 자민당화에 대한 잡담(?) |
|
민주당의 자민당화, 1.5당화 이런 담론이 슬슬 보이는데, 여성+3040대+호남 이라는 탄탄한 지지층을 가지고 자민당처럼 1.5당체제로 간다는 말인데, 한번 소고?를 해볼라고 합니다 한국의 정치지형은 일본의 예시만 보기보단 일본+미국영향+프랑스의 중앙집권 모델을 보는게 더 "정확"할거라고 한번 뇌동해봅니다. 일단 미국과 비교해보자면, 1. 박근혜+탄핵을 아들부시+이라크전으로 도치 2. 문재인당선+이번선거 등등을 오바마 당선으로 도치 이렇게보면 얼추 들어맞기도 하는거 같은데, 한국에 과연 트럼프 같은 사람이 있는가? 가 첫번째 문제이고 과연 트럼프체제가 장기적으로 유지가능한가, (2020년에도 트럼프가 이길것 같기는 합니다만) 의 문제를 떠나서 이념의 문제로 가봅니다. 애초에 트럼프가 뜨게된 이유도 공화당이 똥볼만차다가 안에서 끓던 분노가 폭팔한거니까요. 자한당 계열의 이념은 사실상 미국 네오콘이념을 그래로 복붙한거에서 진보한것이 하나도 없는데 롬니,매케인이 패배한것도 (이런저런게 있지만) 저런 구사상에서 전혀 변한것이 없었던것이 문제인데, 그걸 트럼프가 확 판을 바꿔버렸죠. 이걸 로드맵으로 보자면 자한당계가 쓸 전략은 트럼프같은 포퓰리즘으로 가는건데, 과연 한국정치지형에서 트럼프같은 정치인이 (1)나와서 자한당을 먹고 (2) 여성+3040+호남 콘크리트를 깬다 (3) ? 이건 뭐, 가능성이 없지요 - 1,2번과 3번은 공존이 가능한 성질이 아니니깐요. 또 자한당계열의 이념적 문제는 대북관+미국적 네오콘주의+복음주의적 성향이 스까버려져서 지금 사상에서 벗어날수가 없다고 생각됩니다. 마르크스주의자가 투표에서 계속진다고 유물론을 포기하겠습니까. 이건 개인적인 소견이긴 한데 네오콘계열의 사상적 문제는 자기들이 사실상 유물론자라는걸 자각을 잘 못하는데서 온다고 생각됩니다. 그러면서 좌파니뭐니 쉐도우 복싱을하는데 실제는 자기자신과의 싸움이거든요. 대처-레이건때는, 이명박때는 관료적 처리든, 운빨이든 뭐든해서 일단 닥치고 경제성장시켜서 (그게 미래를 담보로한것이든, 민족의 정체성을 담보로 한것이든, 사회구조의 안정성을 담보로 한것이든) 자리보전을 했는데, 더이상의 경제성장이 없으면 저들은 뭐다? 이렇게 됬다고 보거든요. 이걸 벗어날려면 구좌파의 베를린 장벽이 무너지는것과 비슷한 쇼크가 있어야되는데 과연? 여기서 문득 생각이든건 과연 3040대와 호남이 얼마나 전략적으로 공존이 가능한 그룹인가에 의문이 들더군요. 적어도 제가보기에는 호남은 상당히 보수적인 동네거든요. (궁금한게 민주당의 진보화에 이끌려서 호남이 진보화가 됬다는 이야기도 들리는데 실제로 그럽니까?) 여기서 민주당계가 사회적 진보 아젠다를 계속 밀다보면 1964년 존슨-골드워터 마냥 휙 뒤바뀌는 수가 있을수도 있거든요. 남북전쟁후 딕시에서 공화당 뽑기 100년정도 걸렸으니 호남은 80년후 50년정도 걸릴까요? 2. 일본과 비교를 하는데 솔직히 일본 정치지형과 한국 정치지형은 많이 달라서... 내각제로 바뀐다면 모르겠습니다만, 대통령선거는 인물 개개인의 영항도 매우 강한지라. 신민이 다이묘 후손에 충성하는것과 한국 지형은 좀 다르다고 생각해서 3. 프랑스는 걍 마크롱 언급하고 싶어서 써봤습니다. 어떻게든 보나파르티스트,오를레앙파,정통파 등등 짱구를 굴려봐도 각이 안나오더군요. 시라크를 DJ+노무현, 사르코지를 MB+박근혜, 올랑드를 문재인, 마크롱을 다가올 포퓰리스트로 놓는건 너무 어거지 인거 같기도 하고요. 여하튼 마크롱을 언급한 이유는 지금 한국의 정당성향이 지역+이념 등등으로 꼬일대로 꼬여서 마크롱처럼 새로 창당하지않는이상 노답인거 같다 같습니다. 마크롱은 경제적 보수, 사회적 진보인데 한국은 역으로 사회적 보수, 경제적 진보하면 잘 먹힐거 같기도 하고요. 근데 또 이러면 북한때문에 꼬이네요. 결론. 마크롱+트럼프를 섞은마냥 대위복무 부산출신 아내와 결혼한 호남출신 포퓰리스트 정치인이 앙마르슈 마냥 [전진민족당]을 차리지 않는 이상에얀 민주당의 1.5당 독재는 계속될거다. 왜냐? 자한당이 soul searching 하느라 계속 똥볼을 찰것이기 때문. 그러나 3040+여성과 호남이 더이상 지속 불가능할정도로 사이가 틀어지면 "역사적 필연성" 때문에 코리안 맠럼프가 떡하니 나타날..수도? 지금 보이는 그 쇼크는 북한내부붕괴 뭐 이런건데 이건뭐, 걍 로또사러 가겠습니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
142325 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
142325 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
142325'> 안경쓴녀석
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
20/04/20 09:51
142325>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
와 제가 쓰고싶어하던 주제가 여기에 ㅋㅋㅋ... 그런데 저도 잘 모르겠어서 아직은 얼개만;
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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