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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 15/06/06 02:26:37 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 낭만토토로 |
| Subject | 2007-09 불황은 어떤 사람에게 가장 피해를 줬을까? (링크 수정) |
|
안녕하세요. pgr에서도 같은 닉으로 매우 드문드문 경제 관련 글을 올리는 낭만 토토로입니다. 홍차넷에 가입만 하고 눈팅만 하다 그녀생각님의 글과 Toby님의 글을 보고, 저도 제 전공을 살린 글을 하나 올려야겠다! 싶어서 예전에 제 페북에 썼던 글을 수정해서 올립니다. 당연한 이야기지만 경제 환경의 변화는 이질적 (heterogeneous)인 특성을 가진 사람들에게 서로 다른 영향을 줍니다. 제 연구 주제 중의 하나가 큰 틀에서 볼 때 경제의 '구조'적 변화가 서로 다른 특성을 가진 노동자들에게 어떻게 영향을 주는지 연구하는 것이기 때문에, 이런 변화의 이질적 (heterogeneous) 영향력에 관심이 많은 편이죠. 원래 제가 박사 3년차 때 진행하고 있던 논문이 있었는데 지도 교수님이 별로 좋아하지 않아서 멈춘 것이 있는데, 이 연구를 진행하다가 찾은 재밌는 페이퍼가 있었습니다. 최소 2년 동안 revision 중이라고만 해서 저자들이 페이퍼 버린 줄 알았는데, 어느날 문득 찾아보니까 새 버전이 나왔더군요: http://www.jonathanheathcote.com/ajdv.pdf 이 논문은 4인 공저인데, 거시 경제학계에서 유명한 사람이 세 명이나 있습니다; Dirk Kruger, Victor Rios-Rull, 그리고 Jonathan Heathcote. (개인적으로는 Heathcote 논문들을 좋아합니다. 특히 Kjetil Storesletten (현재 오슬로 대학에 있습니다.)와 같이 쓴 논문들 중에 좋아하는 논문들이 많은데 차후에 시간이 되면 소개해보겠습니다.). 이 논문은 2007~09년 사이의 경제 불황이 크게 청년/중년/노년층으로 나눴을 때 어떤 세대가 가장 큰 피해를 봤을지 전형적인 거시 경제학 모델을 토대로 연구했습니다. (이름만 들어도 어려울 거 같은 (heterogeneous) stochastic overlapping-generations general equilibrium model.. 을 이용했죠... 변태들.. 쿨럭..) 핵심은, 나이가 많아질수록 보유한 자산(wealth)으로 인한 소득이 높고, 젊을수록 노동소득의 비중이 높기 때문에, 불황의 효과가 세대 간에 차이가 있다는 점입니다. 자산 가격이 내렸을 때 젊은 사람들은 자산이 거의 없어서 그 피해는 적게 보지만 대신 자산을 상대적으로 싼 가격에 구매할 수 있고 그 자산의 가격이 시간에 따라 상승할 것이기 때문에 positive wealth effect가 있어서 자산을 이미 보유해서 1. 가격 하락으로 인한 자산의 감소, 2. 자산 가격이 회복되기 전에 사망할 가능성이 큰 (ㅠㅠ) 노년층은 큰 피해를 보게 되지요. 물론 젊은 사람들도 낮아진 노동소득 때문에 피해는 보지만 (노년층은 상대적으로 이로 인한 피해가 작고요) 자산 가격의 하락으로 인한 피해보다 상대적으로 그 규모가 작아서 덜 피해를 본다는 것이 이 논문의 핵심 주장입니다. 이 논문의 결론은 2007~09년 불황의 경우 노동 소득의 하락보다 자산 가격의 큰 하락이 동반돼서 노년층에 더욱 큰 부담으로 작용했다는 것입니다. 저자들의 분석에 따르면, 20~29세 사이의 사람들에게는 불황의 효과가 그리 크지 않았던 반면, 70대 이상의 노인분들에게는 평생 소비의 8%를 잃어버렸다는 점에서 07~09년 불황이 더 안좋았습니다. 여기서부터는 개인적인 의견입니다. 일단 흥미롭고 필요한 연구라는 점은 맞는데, 개인적으로는 청년층의 불황으로 인한 피해가 저평가된 것이 아닌가 싶습니다. 많은 연구에서 보였듯이 청년층이 경제가 불황일 때 노동 시장에 진입하면 상대적으로 오랜 기간 좋은 직장을 찾기 힘든 등의 문제가 있어서 장기적으로 호황일 때 노동시장에 진입한 사람들에 비해 효용 감소분이 큰데, 이 논문에서는 그러한 점이 고려되지 않았기 때문이죠. (물론 이미 복잡한 모델에 이거까지 들어가면 눈물 나게 계산(computation)이 어려워우지겠지만) 여하튼 흥미로운 논문으로, 관심 있는 사람들은 서론 정도만 읽어도 공부가 될 거 같아서 소개 합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
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Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
3241 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
3241 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
3241'> 뤼야
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/06/06 06:33
3241>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
낭만 토토로님 링크가 page not found로 나오네요.
음... 저는 개인적으로 IMF가 노동자들의 실질적인 삶의 양상이나 가치관, 그리고 그 후 세대에게 많은 영향을 미쳤다고 보는데
그 이후로는 특별히 떠오르는 큰 사건(?)은 없어서요.
2007-2009년으로 기간을 상정하신 이유가 따로 있나요?
저는 경제학에 관해서는 아무것도 모르는데, 한국 경제가 불황이라는 말은 10년? 20년?이 넘게 들어온거 같아서요.
쓰고보니 너무 무식한 질문인데 토토로는 제가 좋아하는 캐릭터라 여쭤봅니당.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
음... 저는 개인적으로 IMF가 노동자들의 실질적인 삶의 양상이나 가치관, 그리고 그 후 세대에게 많은 영향을 미쳤다고 보는데
그 이후로는 특별히 떠오르는 큰 사건(?)은 없어서요.
2007-2009년으로 기간을 상정하신 이유가 따로 있나요?
저는 경제학에 관해서는 아무것도 모르는데, 한국 경제가 불황이라는 말은 10년? 20년?이 넘게 들어온거 같아서요.
쓰고보니 너무 무식한 질문인데 토토로는 제가 좋아하는 캐릭터라 여쭤봅니당.
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Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
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Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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