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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 22/03/03 20:29:36 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | 괄하이드 |
| File #1 | 스크린샷_2022_03_03_20.16.51.png (1004.7 KB), Download : 29 |
| Subject | 대선에 대한 잡다한 생각들 |
 글 전체를 관통하는 큰 주제는 없는 그냥 잡다한 생각들입니다. 1. 개인적으로 이재명 승리를 예측하는 예측글을 한번 써보려고 며칠전에 생각했다가 일이 바빠서(+귀찮아서) 미루고 있었는데 안 쓰길 잘 했다는 생각이 드네요... 어차피 저는 단일화가 이제 물건너갔을거라고 예측했기때문에 거기서부터 틀려먹긴 했습니다. 재외국민투표까지 다 끝난 사전투표 전날 전격 단일화가 벌어질줄이야. 2. 이재명이 유리한 것 같다고 판단한 이유중에 하나는 물론 여조의 막판 추세였습니다. 여전히 윤석열이 근소우위인 조사가 많긴했지만 모든 조사에서 지난주 대비 격차를 가파르게 좁히는 추세를 보여주었지요. 많은 여론조사 전문가분들이 예측할 수 없는 박빙승부라고들 하고 있는 상황에서, 개인적으로 교류하는 여조 전문가분의 견해를 들어보니 (본인도 방송 인터뷰에서는 박빙이고 예측불가라고 하지만) 개인적으로 돈을 걸라면 이재명에게 걸 것 같다는 이야기를 하시더군요. 당연히 단일화 전 얘기라서 이제는 의미 없는 이야기입니다.. (반면 홍차넷 이벤트 댓글을 보니 거의 한손으로 꼽을정도로 소수를 제외하면 대다수가 윤 승에 베팅했고, 심지어 박빙이 아니라 10%가량 차이나는 압도적인 윤 승리를 예측하신 분들이 많아서 좀 놀랐습니다.) 극적인 단일화가 이뤄진 것에는 물론 선거비용을 보전받기위한 안철수의 동기가 크지만, 여조 추세가 따라잡히면서 윤캠의 불안감이 커졌기 때문이라고 볼 수도 있겠지요. 여유있게 이길수 있는 상황으로 판단했다면 굳이 정권의 지분을 나눠줄 필요가 없으니까요. 3. 여조 외에 개인적으로 이재명의 승리를 점친 요인 중 하나는 청년 여성표의 존재입니다. 이준석은 '세대포위론'이라는 이름으로 대충 2030청년표를 가져와 원래 전통적인 지지층인 60+ 노년층과 함께 4050중년표를 포위해서 이기겠다는 전략을 내세웠습니다. 하지만 전설의 시작이 된 7글자 [여성가족부 폐지] 를 시작으로 이준석이 택한 전략은 '청년'을 위한 공약이 아니라 '청년 남성'(정확히 말하면 인터넷 남초 커뮤니티)의 반페미니즘 열망을 자극하는 전략이었죠. 그 생각이 옳다 그르다 당위를 말하고 싶은게 아니라 순수하게 선거공학적 측면에서 저는 늘 약간의 의구심이 있었습니다. 특정 계층을 위한 약속에는 대개 반대 집단의 '청구서'가 있기 마련이죠. 예를들어 성소수자를 위한 정책을 밀면 당연히 성소수자들의 표심을 손쉽게 가져올수 있겠지만, 그런 전략을 잘 택하지 않는 이유는 '기독교인 표심'이라는 청구서가 있고, 그게 더 과대평가되고 있기 때문이지요. 근데 청년 남성이 수적으로 여성보다 많은 것도 아니고 (약간 더 많긴 합니다;) 여성이 집안일하느라 투표장에 못 나오는 시대도 아닌데, 도대체 왜 청년 남성을 위한 반페미니즘 공약은 청구서를 받지 않는다는 것일까요? 물론 일리가 있는 전략이 맞습니다. 청년 여성층은 지지의 기준점이 높다고 해야하나.. 아무튼 웬만한 정책으로 지지가 잘 움직이지 않는 계층이긴 합니다. 예를들어서 문재인 정부가 페미니스트 정부라고 남초에서는 욕을 먹는데, 그럼 반대로 페미들은 좋아해줘야 되는건데 정작 페미들은 문정부 별로 맘에 안 들어한단 말이죠. 저정도가지고 무슨 페미니스트 정부냐고 욕하면서 심상정이나 지지하곤 했으니, 당연히 선거공학적으로는 남자들 챙겨주는게 더 가성비가 좋은거죠. 근데 윤석열이 지속적으로 친남성 행보를 보이면서 여성표의 이재명집결이 어느정도 발생하고 있지 않았나 생각합니다. 이재명 찍기 정말 싫었는데, 윤석열이 계속 펨코 타겟 친남성 정책 내는거 보니까 무서워서라도 막아야겠다는 얘기들이 나오고 있는 것이죠. 이건 저의 뇌피셜이기도 하지만 당연히 윤캠쪽에서도 인지하고 있는 문제라고 생각하며, 그 결과 위 페북글이 어제 올라온 것이라고 생각합니다. '여성가족부 폐지'라는거 SNS에서 쏠쏠하게 써먹었으니 슬쩍 10대공약에서 뺐다가 걸려서 다시 넣었고, 결국 전국민에게 발송하는 공보물에서는 무려 두 페이지에 걸쳐 10대 공약을 설명하고 있지만 여성가족부 폐지 얘기가 슬쩍 빠져버린 사실도 마찬가지로 해석됩니다. (왜 뺐냐는 질문에는 '홍보 수단의 특성에 따른 맞춤형 전략일 뿐'이라고 답했습니다.) 아무튼 저는 그 청구서가 분명히 돌아오지 않을까 싶습니다. (청년 여성층은 여론조사 포집이 가장 어려운 계층이기도 하고요) 4. 개인적으로는 여론조사에 관심이 좀 있었고 과연 이대로 끝나면 어떤 조사방법이 적합했고 어떤 업체가 엉터리였는지 분석을 한번 각잡고 분석해보겠다는 계획이 있었는데... 완전히 판도가 바뀌면서 그냥 이전에 했던 조사들은 다 무의미해져버렸네요. 개인적으로 이번 단일화에서 가장 빡치는 포인트입니다... ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ 이제 정말로 깜깜이 상태로 선거를 치르게 됐네요. 과연 단일화의 효과는 어떤식으로 작용될까요? 아마 윤이 분명히 이득을 보긴하겠지만, 얼마나 이득을 보게 될지, 최종 결과가 어떻게될지 이제는 잘 모르겠습니다... Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
169865 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
169865 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
169865'> 애플트리
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 134
수정됨
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
22/03/03 20:33
169865>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
일반적인 남성과 함께하는 일반적인 여성, 페미니스트는 아닌 그런 대다수 평범하고 정상적인 여성들을 간과하신 글이라고 생각합니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
169865>
169865>
