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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | cummings |
| Subject | 집값은 올라가고 있는건가? 내려가고 있는건가? |
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<서울 아파트 실거래가 1년7개월 만에 하락…집값 하락 '신호탄'> https://news.naver.com/main/read.naver?mode=LPOD&mid=sec&oid=001&aid=0012918536&isYeonhapFlash=Y&rc=N 14일 한국부동산원이 공개한 지난해 11월 공동주택 실거래가 지수에 따르면 서울 아파트 실거래가 지수는 179.9로 전월 대비 0.79% 하락했다. 또 인천은 전월 대비 0.49% 올랐으나 경기도가 0.11% 하락하면서 수도권 전체의 11월 실거래가 지수도 0.27% 떨어졌다.  라는 기사가 1월14일에 나왔었는데 이 기사가 뜨기 딱 하루전 1월13일에 똑같은 부동산원 자료로 발표된 기사가 있습니다. <강남 집값 상승세 '여전'…전국 아파트값 0.03% 상승> https://n.news.naver.com/article/215/0001009099 1월 둘째주 전국 아파트값이 전주대비 상승했다. 13일 한국부동산원(원장 손태락)에 따르면 1월 2주(1월10일 기준) 전국 아파트가격 동향 조사 결과, 매매가격은 0.03% 상승했다. 수도권에선 서울이 0.02%, 인천, 경기가 각각 0.06%, 0.02% 올랐다  흔히 듣는 KB은행에서 발표하는 부동산 자료와 국가에서 발표하는 부동산원의 자료가 다르다는건 아시는분들이 많을텐데, 얘는 똑같은 부동산원 자료인데 뭐가 다른가??의야해서 한번 찾아봤습니다. 전자는 [아파트 실거래 가격지수]로 - 실제 [신고된 실거래가 내역]을 바탕으로 - 과거 거래된 동일한 주택. 즉 단지, 면적, 동, 층그룹(1,2층/중간층/최상층)을 동일주택으로 가정해서 - [특이거래(특수 거래, 일정수준 이상의 신고가)를 제외]하게됩니다. 참고, 아파트 실거래 가격지수 Q&A http://www.molit.go.kr/USR/policyTarget/dtl.jsp?idx=159 후자는 [전국아파트가격동향조사]로서 - 한국감정원 소속 전문조사자가 [현장조사를 통해 동향파악 + 실거래가 및 여타 가격자료](중개업소 탐문가격, 매물가격, 호가수준)을 참조해 가격이 평가됩니다. - 당월 표본주택거래가 없는 경우, [같은 유형 비슷한 규모의 인근주택 사례를 비교]하여 가격조사가 되며 - 조사된 가격을 바탕으로 주택가격 비율을 [주택재고량]을 기준으로 평균해서 산출됩니다. 참고, 전국주택가격동향조사 Q&A https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/policyTarget/m_24066/dtl.jsp?idx=873 즉, 일반적으로 전자가 더 명확하나 지금처럼 거래가 없고 신고가나 신저가가 날뛸때엔 왜곡될 여지가 있습니다. 급매를 제외한, 일반적으로 보이는 시장가격과도 괴리가 있을수 있구요. (첫 뉴스기사속 도표상에는 2020년 4월에도 하락했다고 되어있는데...하락이 있었는지 기억도 잘 안나네요;;;)  다만 1월 10일자 KB지수 또한 서울 아파트 매매가격이 지난주 대비 0.03%로 낮은 상승세의 보합권이 유지되나, 하락추세이고  [경매낙찰가율] 또한 100% 이상으로 유지가 되고있기는 하나 하지만 추세가 점차 내려가고 있는것은 사실이라... <꽁꽁 얼어붙은 아파트 경매 시장…지난해 12월 낙찰률 연중 최저> https://www.mk.co.kr/news/economy/view/2022/01/43816/ 급격하게 상승한 수도권 지역들에 대한 조정이 들어가고 있으며 2019년 초의 거래없는 치열한 눈치보기 조정장이 재현될것으로 예상됩니다. 다만 집값이 조정받는 이유가 하락전환이라기보다는 금리상승 + DSR등의 대출제한에 따른것이라고 생각되며 22,23년 주택부족과 3기 신도시나 이번 대선이후의 주택공급과의 괴리는 여전해보이는지라 갈아타실 생각이 있으신 분이나 조만간 집이 필요하신 분은 슬슬 대선 이후로 알아보시는것도 좋겠습니다. 민간뿐만 아니라 주요기관들도 올해 상승을 예측하는 상황이거든요. <정부 "집값 하락" 민간 "상승"…부동산원 난감? 올해 전망 안한다> https://news.mt.co.kr/mtview.php?no=2022010709451184300  공급을 시작하는 모양새인데다가 주택가격의 싸이클이 있다보니 시장에서는 2030년 전후의 조정 혹은 하락을 예상하나 개인적으로는 - 고금리가 오랜기간 지속된다거나 - 집값이 사회문제가 될 정도로 하락하는 모양새임에도 대출제한, 투기과열지구, 종부세 등을 유지할 것 이라고 생각하진 않고... 다음주에 IPO 하는 LG에너지솔루션에 어마어마한 투자대기자금이 들어올것으로 예상되어 (세상에 돈이 없는게 아니라 나만 없...ㅠㅠ) 장기간 거주할 수 있는, 지역 내 괜찮은 곳을 잡을 기회가 온다면 언제든 좋다고 생각합니다. 실거주 1주택이 지금 당장 팔지 않으면 큰일나는 상황은 드무니까요. 지금 집 샀다가 제2의 imf나 리먼때 폭락가격에 매도할거라고 생각하는게 쉽게 일어나지 않는 것처럼 지금 존버해서 제2의 imf나 리먼때 줍겠다는것도 쉽지 않을겁니다. 그때가 오면 전세금 빼기도 쉽지 않을거고, 주식시장도 집값이랑 같이 손잡고 바닥찍고있을테니까요. 대략 정리하면, 조정장이 시작될 분위기가 풍기지만 아직 집값 하락을 언급할 단계는 아니다. 거래가 막힌데에 따른 급매와 일부 신고가가 혼재된 양상으로 대선 이후 어디로 튈지는 알수 없다. 조만간 부동산시장에 참여해야할 상황이라면 요번 조정장에 급매를 알아보는것도 괜찮겠다. 정도로 요약을... Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 cummings님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
168044 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
168044 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
168044'> cummings
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
22/01/15 14:04
168044>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
[글쓴 사람 사실 부알못입니다.
선동과 날조에 유의하시고 꼭 스스로 투자판단 해주시기 바랍니다.]
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
8
선동과 날조에 유의하시고 꼭 스스로 투자판단 해주시기 바랍니다.]
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
8
168044>
168044>
