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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Name | 구글 고랭이 |
| Subject | 여론조사 9개중 6개는 접전…尹, 3개 오차범위밖 '우세' |
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https://news.naver.com/main/read.naver?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=001&oid=448&aid=0000345199 대선 d-100을 맞아 tv조선에서 여러 여론조사들을 한꺼번에 정리를 잘 해놨더군요. 그래서 여기에 공유합니다.    윤석열은 3개 여론조사에서 이재명을 오차범위 밖에서 앞섰고, 다른 6개 조사에선 오차범위 내에서 경합합니다. 윤석열-이재명 간의 격차는 대체적으로 좁혀지는 추세이고, 다만 이재명 지지율은 30%대 박스권을 벗어나지는 못하고 있습니다.  세대별로는 60대 이상 & 20대에서 윤석열이 앞서고, 40대에서 이재명이 앞서고, 30대·50대에서는 경합합니다.  보수에서는 윤석열이, 진보에서는 이재명이 크게 앞서고, 중도층에서는 윤석열이 약우위에 있습니다.   이번에 대선을 100일 앞두고 윤석열은 충청에서, 이재명은 호남에서 유세를 했습니다. 전국 표심의 캐스팅보트를 쥐고 있는 충청권 민심은 윤석열이 약우위에 있습니다. 호남 지역에서 몇몇 조사는 윤석열이 20% 가까이 차지하고 있다는 점이 주목됩니다.   20대는 아직도 지지후보를 정하지 않은 부동층 표심이 많습니다.   20대男/女 모두 윤석열이 이재명을 앞서는데, 20대女 민심이 심상정 쪽으로 상당히 많이 가고 이재명이 그 표를 흡수하지 못한 것이 커 보입니다.   윤석열은 정권 교체 표를 다 흡수하지 못하고 있고, 이재명은 대통령 지지율만큼도 다 얻지 못하고 있습니다.  지지후보를 바꿀 수 있다는 비율이 30% 가량 됩니다. 앞으로 몇개월 동안 바뀔 여지는 충분합니다. 특히 안, 심 -> 윤, 이 로의 후보 단일화 여부 및 막판 표심 이동이 어떻게 될지 궁금합니다.   리얼미터-오마이뉴스 주간집계는 11월 22일(월)부터 26일(금)까지 닷새 동안 전국 18세 이상 유권자 53,228명에게 통화를 시도해 최종 3,023명이 응답을 완료, 5.7%의 응답률(응답률 제고 목적 미수신 조사대상 2회 콜백)을 나타냈고, 무선 전화면접(8%), 무선(81%)·유선(10%) 자동응답 혼용방식, 무선전화(90%)와 유선전화(10%) 병행 무작위생성 표집틀을 통한 임의 전화걸기 방법으로 실시했다. 통계보정은 2021년 7월 말 행정안전부 주민등록 인구통계 기준 성별, 연령대별, 권역별 림가중 부여 방식으로 이루어졌고, 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에서 ±1.8%P이다. 여론조사 전문기관 리얼미터가 YTN 의뢰로 차기 대통령 후보 지지도를 조사한 결과는 지난 26~27일 전국의 만 18세 이상 남녀 1032명을 대상으로 한 무선(90%), 유선(10%)의 전화 조사에서 나타났으며, 응답률은 6.3%다. 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에서 ±3.1%포인트다. 글로벌리서치가 JTBC 의뢰로 지난 27~28일 전국 18세 이상 남녀 1006명을 상대로 한 이번 여론조사는 100% 전화 면접 방식(무선 100%)으로 진행됐고, 여론조사의 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에 ±3.1%포인트다. 한국리서치-KBS 조사는 지난 26~28일 사흘간 전국 만 18세 이상 성인 1000명을 대상으로 면접원에 의한 전화면접조사 방식으로 실시됐다. 응답률은 21.5%, 표본오차는 95% 신뢰 수준에서 ±3.1%포인트다. KSOI(한국사회여론연구소)가 29일 공개한 차기 대선 다자대결 조사(TBS 의뢰, 26~27일 조사, 전국 만 18세 이상 유권자 1009명 대상)는 중앙선관위 제공 휴대전화 가상번호(안심번호)를 활용한 무선자동응답 방식이다. 중앙일보가 엠브레인퍼블릭에 의뢰해 지난 26~27일 전국의 만 18세 이상 남녀 1020명을 대상으로 유선 임의전화걸기(RDD, 비율 14.9%)와 무선(가상번호, 비율 85.1%)을 결합한 전화면접조사 방식으로 진행했다. 유ㆍ무선 평균 응답률은 13.8%며 2021년 10월 말 행정안전부 주민등록 인구 기준으로 가중값을 부여했고 표본오차는 95% 신뢰 수준에서 최대 ±3.1%포인트다. 28일 여론조사업체 <케이스탯리서치>에 따르면, <한겨레> 의뢰로 지난 25~26일 이틀 동안 전국 성인 1천27명을 대상으로 대선후보 적합도를 조사한 결과 이번 조사는 유무선 병행방식으로 실시됐으며, 응답률은 19.4%, 표본오차는 95% 신뢰 수준에 ±3.1%포인트다. 조사의뢰 : MBC 조사기관 : 코리아리서치 조사대상 : 전국 거주 만 18세 이상 남녀 조사기간 : 11월 27일~28일 (2일간) 조사방법 : (국내 통신 3사 제공) 휴대전화 가상번호 100% 이용 무선전화면접 피조사자 선정방법 : 성/연령/지역별 할당 표본크기 : 전국 1,008명 응답률: 23.9% (4,225명 통화 1,008명 응답) 가중값 산출·적용방법 : 성/연령/지역별 가중치 부여 (셀 가중, 2021년 10월말 행정안전부 주민등록인구통계 기준) 표본오차: 95% 신뢰수준 ±3.1% 포인트 조사 의뢰 : SBS 조사 기관 : 넥스트리서치 조사 일시 : 2021년 11월 27일~28일 조사 대상 : 전국 만 18세 이상 남녀 1천7명 (성·연령·지역 할당 후 유선 RDD 및 무선 가상번호 추출) 조사 방법 : 유·무선 전화면접조사 (무선 86%, 유선 14%) 응답률 : 19.0% (5천286명 접촉하여 1천7명 조사 성공) 가중치 부여 방식 : 성별·연령별·지역별 가중값 부여 (셀가중/2021년 10월말 행정안전부 주민등록인구 기준) 표본 오차 : ±3.1%p (95% 신뢰 수준) 자세한 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지를 참조하면 된다. 제 사견을 첨하자면, 윤석열vs이재명이 거의 박빙인 건 맞는데 뭔가 한끗(?)이 윤이 더 앞서있고, 안철수는 국힘과 단일화할 가능성이 매우 높은데 심상정(정의당)은 민주당과 단일화할 가능성은 거의 없다고 봅니다. 그러면 옛날 박근혜vs문재인 구도의 재판이 되면서 민주당 쪽이 아슬아슬하게 지는 구도가 나오지 않을까 생각합니다. 이대로만 간다면요. 그래서 이재명은 이 구도를 뒤집으려면 뭔가 변수를 둬야 해요. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 구글 고랭이님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
166141 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
166141 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
166141'> 물냉과비냉사이
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/11/30 01:10
166141>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
https://www.mt.co.kr/election2022/?fbclid=IwAR00wqvRWAgjT5N10VPTk736B1WySSSTQTYTDZB9MAVGxprdDzdOjm_YPRg
이건 서울대 언론정보학부 한규섭 교수팀(폴랩)에서 작업한 것인데, 여러 조사들을 통합해서 지수화하고 각 날짜별로 지지율 평균과 신뢰구간 잡아서 그림그리는 것입니다. 이런 것도 참조할만 할듯.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
이건 서울대 언론정보학부 한규섭 교수팀(폴랩)에서 작업한 것인데, 여러 조사들을 통합해서 지수화하고 각 날짜별로 지지율 평균과 신뢰구간 잡아서 그림그리는 것입니다. 이런 것도 참조할만 할듯.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
166141>
166141>
