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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 21/08/18 14:42:33 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | right |
| Subject | 코로나로 인한 부동산 가치의 변동 |
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많은 전문가들이 코로나 이전의 시대로는 돌아가지 못한다고 말합니다. 그 원인은 여러가지가 있겠지만 근본적으로는 환경변화를 제시하고 있습니다. 예를 들어 인간이 삼림을 계속 벌목하면 많은 야생동물들이 그만큼 도시에 접촉하게 되고, 이들이 보유한 균이 사람에게 전파된다는 것입니다. 그 외에도 북극의 빙하가 녹으면서 그 안에 있던 바이러스들이 전파된다는 설명도 있습니다. 결국은 지구 온난화, 환경 파괴 등이 이전보다 다양한 바이러스를 인간에게 전파한다는 것인데, 아시다시피 환경문제는 해결이 요원한 상태입니다. 또한, 지금은 국제 여행이 매우 활발한 시대입니다. 예전에는 아프리카에서 말라리아가 퍼져도 그 나라, 대륙 안에서만 퍼졌죠. 지금은 하루아침에 아프리카에서 남미, 아시아로 퍼질 수 있는 시대입니다. 이런 점에서 현대는 바이러스에게 매우 유리한 환경이라 할 수 있고, 그러한 추세는 가속화될 것으로 보입니다. 이런 상황에서 부동산 가치는 어떻게 변할지 생각해보겠습니다. 바이러스의 특징은 사람과 사람이 접촉함으로써 퍼지는 것입니다. 따라서 코로나 이후 시대에는 사람간의 거리를 더 넓게 유지할 필요가 있고, 더 많은 공간이 필요합니다. 단적으로 카페만 가봐도 알 수 있습니다. 앉을 수 있는 자리가 같은 공간에 절반 가까이 줄었죠. 특히 각 건물의 1층을 차지하고 있는 대면업종들은 더 타격을 받을 것입니다. 그 외에 마스크를 쓰기 힘든 운동시설이나, 클럽과 코인노래방과 같은 밀접접촉 업종들의 타격이 크겠죠. 상대적으로 타격이 덜한 업종은 편의점, 마트 등의 소매업이 될것입니다. 기업들의 사무공간도 카페와 마찬가지로 일정거리를 유지해야 하므로 비슷한 타격을 입을 것입니다. 현재는 과도기라고 볼 수 있습니다. 부동산은 매몰비용, 이전비용이 커서 바로 바뀌지는 않습니다. 예를 들어 카페의 경우 지금의 거리두기를 유지해야한다면 신규출점할 이유가 전혀 없습니다. 매출이 예전보다 훨씬 줄어들었으니까요. 즉 이대로 코로나가 지속되고 제2, 3의 코로나가 나타난다면 서울은 매우 다른 모습이 될 것입니다. 카페와 같이 다수가 함께 공간을 이용하는 업종은 매우 줄어드고 높은 가격으로만 이용이 가능하게 될 것입니다. 컴팩트하게 공간을 유지할 수 있는 업종은 상당히 늘어날 것입니다. 즉 편의점, 마트, 배달음식점등은 남겠죠. 누군가와 대면하는 업종은 대부분 비대면으로 전환이 가속화될 것입니다. 예를 들면 대다수 병원 진료등이 비대면으로 이뤄질 것입니다. 이는 부동산의 가치가 줄어든다는 것입니다. 10명을 수용할 수 있는 공간이 5명밖에 수용을 못하니까요. 결국 몰려있는 인구는 점점 더 넓은 곳으로 퍼질수밖에 없습니다. 이를 가속화하는게 재택근무입니다. 지금까지 사람들이 수도권으로 몰리는 이유는 직주근접이 가장 컸습니다. 근데 이제 바이러스 때문에 재택근무가 필수가 되어가고 있습니다. 대다수 기업들은 기존보다 2배 이상의 사무실 비용을 내면서 수도권에 사무실을 유지할 이유가 없습니다. 물론 매몰비용떄문에 당장 사무실을 옮기진 않겠지만 점진적으로 지방 이전을 하거나 없애겠죠. 지방 중에 어디냐고 하면 아무래도 서울 접근성이 좋은 곳, GTX가 연결된 신도시가 유력합니다. 이에 따라 서울의 인구도 이러한 신도시로 많이 이동할 것으로 예상합니다. 요약 : 기후환경 변화로 인해 코로나와 같은 바이러스는 계속 발생할 것임. 이에 따라 사람들은 계속 거리두기를 해야하며, 그만큼 부동산에서 사람을 수용할 수 없음. 서울은 지금의 밀집도를 유지할 수 없게 되며, 사람들은 더 넓은 지역으로 퍼지게 될 것임. GTX가 연결된 신도시들의 가치가 더 올라가게 될 것임. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 right님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
161417 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
161417 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
161417'> moqq
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/08/18 14:49
161417>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
재택근무를 하면서 집에서 보내는 시간이 증가 -> 사람들이 넓은 집과 인테리어, 가구를 원하게 됨 ->
집값과 관련 업종 매출이 증가한 현상은 어떻게 보시나요?
밀집도가 낮아짐 -> 소수의 사람들만 서울에 수용될 수 있음 -> 서울집값 상승 이라는 논리도 가능은 할 것 같구요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
2
집값과 관련 업종 매출이 증가한 현상은 어떻게 보시나요?
밀집도가 낮아짐 -> 소수의 사람들만 서울에 수용될 수 있음 -> 서울집값 상승 이라는 논리도 가능은 할 것 같구요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
2
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