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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
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질문
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 질문 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타게임진로연애가정/육아체육/스포츠교육의료/건강철학/종교IT/컴퓨터여행과학문화/예술법률홍차넷경제
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 19/08/02 17:06:32 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 이노우에나오야 |
| Subject | 아베노믹스에 대한 평가 |
|
아베노믹스가 13년도부터 시행된 이후 언제나 말 하던 게 gdp대비 부채비율이 너무 높다 이건 망할 것! 이라는 말들이 엄청 많았고 유명한 경제학자나 투자가들도 그런 식으로 말을 많이 했던 거 같은데 지금 일본 경제를 보면 망한 건 아닌데 뭔가 성공했다고 보기도 힘들고 뭐 이런 애매한 상황인 거 같은데 어떻게들 보시나요 ? Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 |
|
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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66362 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
66362 class='vcm '>
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66362'> Jerry
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
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수정됨
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19/08/02 18:41
66362>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
뭐 간단히 얘기하자면, "대체로 성공"이라고 보시면 됩니다.
먼저, 부채비율의 이유를 들어 '일본은 망할 것'이라고 보는건 어찌보면 희망사항에 가깝지 현실이 아닙니다. 현실에선 엔화는 꾸준히 달러와 더불어 안전자산으로 사랑받아왔고 앞으로도 당분간은 그럴 것입니다. 이유는 간단한데, 부채도 많지만 자산도 많거든요. 오래된 이야기지만 옛날에 유행했던 아베의 3개의 화살을 끌고와봅시다: 제도개혁, 정부지출, 통화정책. 따지고보면 어느 나라에서나 써먹는 삼종신기 정책이고 3개의 화살로 브랜딩을 했었죠.
1.제도개혁은 적어도 하나 ... 더 보기
먼저, 부채비율의 이유를 들어 '일본은 망할 것'이라고 보는건 어찌보면 희망사항에 가깝지 현실이 아닙니다. 현실에선 엔화는 꾸준히 달러와 더불어 안전자산으로 사랑받아왔고 앞으로도 당분간은 그럴 것입니다. 이유는 간단한데, 부채도 많지만 자산도 많거든요. 오래된 이야기지만 옛날에 유행했던 아베의 3개의 화살을 끌고와봅시다: 제도개혁, 정부지출, 통화정책. 따지고보면 어느 나라에서나 써먹는 삼종신기 정책이고 3개의 화살로 브랜딩을 했었죠.
1.제도개혁은 적어도 하나 ... 더 보기
뭐 간단히 얘기하자면, "대체로 성공"이라고 보시면 됩니다.
먼저, 부채비율의 이유를 들어 '일본은 망할 것'이라고 보는건 어찌보면 희망사항에 가깝지 현실이 아닙니다. 현실에선 엔화는 꾸준히 달러와 더불어 안전자산으로 사랑받아왔고 앞으로도 당분간은 그럴 것입니다. 이유는 간단한데, 부채도 많지만 자산도 많거든요. 오래된 이야기지만 옛날에 유행했던 아베의 3개의 화살을 끌고와봅시다: 제도개혁, 정부지출, 통화정책. 따지고보면 어느 나라에서나 써먹는 삼종신기 정책이고 3개의 화살로 브랜딩을 했었죠.
1.제도개혁은 적어도 하나 정도는 지표상에서 유의한 성공을 거뒀다고 봅니다. 물론 제도개혁과 생산성 향상은 솔직히 말해 그 성공여부는 아무도 알 수가 없고 사후적으로 잘됐으면 그런가보다 안됐으면 역시나 싶은 수준의 주제입니다. 하지만 최근 일본의 여성 노동 참가율이 미국보다 높아졌다는건 의미가 있는 일입니다. 일반적으로 아시아권의 여성 노동 참가율은 꽤나 저조한 편이었고 일본이 대표적인 사례였는데, 이제는 아니에요. 수치상의 표면적인 성과라고 치부할 수도 있겠으나, 나름 핵심지표 중 하나였기 때문에 전 그렇게 생각하지 않습니다.
2. 정부지출은 일본정부 돈 많이 쓰고 있고 앞으로도 그렇게 신호를 주고 있습니다. 소비세 인상등을 통해 지나치게 순지출이 커지지않도록 관리하는 모습도 보여주고 있고, 경기가 어려울 때 확장적 재정지출에 대해 이견을 가질 경제학자는 많지 않을 것입니다.
3. 통화정책 참 말도 많고 탈도 많습니다. 일본 중앙은행이 일본 주식시장 ETF의 최대 구매자 중 한명이고, 연기금과 더불어 일부 기업들에서 대주주 명단에 이름을 올리기 시작했습니다. 마이너스 채권 금리는 말할 것도 없고요. 시장왜곡에 대한 우려가 나올정도로 노골적으로 완화적 통화정책을 실시하고 있는데, 결과적으로 보면 아무튼 경기부양에는 도움을 줬다고 봐야할 것 입니다.
제 개인적으로도 5년전 정도의 초창기엔 아베노믹스에 대해 대단히 의구심을 가졌습니다. 하지만 지금와서 보면 3개의 화살이 삐그덕거리긴해도 잃어버린 10년 소리가 나올정도로 비관적이었던 경제에 응급심폐소생술 정도는 해준것 같다고 생각합니다. 최근까지도 일본 GDP 성장률이 아주 좋게 나오는건 아니지만, 최소한 이제 일본 경제를 그 이전만큼 비관적으로 바라보지는 않아요. 지난 1분기 일본 경제 성장률은 한국과 대조적으로 꽤 좋았고 이번 분기는 어떨지 모르겠네요. 최근에 아베가 저지르는 무모한 무역전쟁이 새로운 리스크로 등장하긴 했지만 그건 이제 시작이니 두고 볼 일이라고 생각합니다.
먼저, 부채비율의 이유를 들어 '일본은 망할 것'이라고 보는건 어찌보면 희망사항에 가깝지 현실이 아닙니다. 현실에선 엔화는 꾸준히 달러와 더불어 안전자산으로 사랑받아왔고 앞으로도 당분간은 그럴 것입니다. 이유는 간단한데, 부채도 많지만 자산도 많거든요. 오래된 이야기지만 옛날에 유행했던 아베의 3개의 화살을 끌고와봅시다: 제도개혁, 정부지출, 통화정책. 따지고보면 어느 나라에서나 써먹는 삼종신기 정책이고 3개의 화살로 브랜딩을 했었죠.
1.제도개혁은 적어도 하나 정도는 지표상에서 유의한 성공을 거뒀다고 봅니다. 물론 제도개혁과 생산성 향상은 솔직히 말해 그 성공여부는 아무도 알 수가 없고 사후적으로 잘됐으면 그런가보다 안됐으면 역시나 싶은 수준의 주제입니다. 하지만 최근 일본의 여성 노동 참가율이 미국보다 높아졌다는건 의미가 있는 일입니다. 일반적으로 아시아권의 여성 노동 참가율은 꽤나 저조한 편이었고 일본이 대표적인 사례였는데, 이제는 아니에요. 수치상의 표면적인 성과라고 치부할 수도 있겠으나, 나름 핵심지표 중 하나였기 때문에 전 그렇게 생각하지 않습니다.
2. 정부지출은 일본정부 돈 많이 쓰고 있고 앞으로도 그렇게 신호를 주고 있습니다. 소비세 인상등을 통해 지나치게 순지출이 커지지않도록 관리하는 모습도 보여주고 있고, 경기가 어려울 때 확장적 재정지출에 대해 이견을 가질 경제학자는 많지 않을 것입니다.
3. 통화정책 참 말도 많고 탈도 많습니다. 일본 중앙은행이 일본 주식시장 ETF의 최대 구매자 중 한명이고, 연기금과 더불어 일부 기업들에서 대주주 명단에 이름을 올리기 시작했습니다. 마이너스 채권 금리는 말할 것도 없고요. 시장왜곡에 대한 우려가 나올정도로 노골적으로 완화적 통화정책을 실시하고 있는데, 결과적으로 보면 아무튼 경기부양에는 도움을 줬다고 봐야할 것 입니다.
제 개인적으로도 5년전 정도의 초창기엔 아베노믹스에 대해 대단히 의구심을 가졌습니다. 하지만 지금와서 보면 3개의 화살이 삐그덕거리긴해도 잃어버린 10년 소리가 나올정도로 비관적이었던 경제에 응급심폐소생술 정도는 해준것 같다고 생각합니다. 최근까지도 일본 GDP 성장률이 아주 좋게 나오는건 아니지만, 최소한 이제 일본 경제를 그 이전만큼 비관적으로 바라보지는 않아요. 지난 1분기 일본 경제 성장률은 한국과 대조적으로 꽤 좋았고 이번 분기는 어떨지 모르겠네요. 최근에 아베가 저지르는 무모한 무역전쟁이 새로운 리스크로 등장하긴 했지만 그건 이제 시작이니 두고 볼 일이라고 생각합니다.
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