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홍차넷
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
질문
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 질문 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타게임진로연애가정/육아체육/스포츠교육의료/건강철학/종교IT/컴퓨터여행과학문화/예술법률홍차넷경제
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 21/07/31 23:14:39 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | Gogoss |
| File #1 | AKR20210404024900002_03_i_P4.jpg (107.2 KB), Download : 12 |
| Subject | 한국의 가계부채규모는 굉장히 위험한 수준 아닌가요? |
 https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20210404024900002 위 뉴스기사를 읽고 천천히 생각했는데.... 기사의 내용이랑 그래프가 생각하면 할수록 흥미롭더라고요. 부동산 투자하는 사람들은 한국은 LTV 한도 규제를 빡시게 적용하고 있어서 부동산이 버블이 아니라고 주장하지 않습니까? 근데 이게 반은 맞고 반은 틀린말인게 우리나라는 전 세계에서 거의 유일하게 전세라는 제도가 있다는 거죠. 전세자금대출도 주택담보대출에 포함하면 한국은 2020 제로금리 유동성 폭탄을 맞기도 전인 2019년에 이미 주요 선진국 중 GDP 대비 주택담보대출 비율이 가장 높은 국가였습니다. 더 눈여겨 봐야할 것은 미국이랑 유럽국가들입니다. 미국이랑 유럽국가들은 2008~2011년에 서브프라임모기지 사태와 유로존 재정위기 때문에 자산시장 폭락이 와서 가계가 어쩔수 없이 가계부채를 정상화했습니다. 하지만 아이러니하게도 한국은 그 당시 피해를 가장 덜 본 국가라서 자산시장의 붕괴가 크지 않아 가계부채비율이 오히려 급증했습니다. http://biz.khan.co.kr/khan_art_view.html?artid=201205312143255&code=920100 스페인 부동산 거품 꺼지며 저축銀 부실 - 매일경제 그런데, 2008년에 미국 다음으로 가계부채가 많았고 부동산 거품이 심했던 스페인이 부동산버블 터지고 경제위기를 겪지 않았습니까? 그러면 과연 코로나가 끝나고 미국이 금리인상하고 자산시장 급격히 흔들릴 때 가장 위험한 국가는 한국이 아닐까요? 지난 2020년 부동산, 주식 어느하나 급등하지 않은 자산이 없습니다. 그런데 이건 경제가 좋아서 자산가격이 올라간 것이 아닙니다. 국민들의 소득은 크게 올라가지 않았습니다. 오히려 국민의 20프로나 되는 자영업자들은 코로나 방역 때문에 상황이 더 어려워졌죠. 결국 소득상승이 아닌 저금리 대출이 우리나라의 자산거품을 만든 것 아닐까요? 제 개인적인 생각으로는 한국경제가 연착륙을 하려면 부동산과 주식의 거품을 빼야한다고 생각합니다. 거품을 빼고 가계부채를 줄이기 위한 가장 좋은 방법은 금리를 올리는 것입니다. 금리를 올리지 않으면 영끌이니 빚투니 하며 가계부채는 계속 늘어만 가니까요. 그런데 금리를 올리자니 한국의 중소기업들과 자영업자들이 이자랑 원금상환을 제대로 할 수 있을지가 의문입니다. 그래서 한은은 계속 금리인상한다고 시그널만 보내고 실제론 금리인상을 하지 않는 것 같고요. 여러분은 앞으로 한국의 자산시장 특히 부동산 시장이 어떻게 될거라 생각하시나요? 한은과 기재부는 어떤 스탠스를 취할까요? 혼자 고민하는 것 보다 많은 사람과 생각을 나누는 것이 큰 공부가 될 것 같아 허접한 글이지만 올려봅니다. 감사합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 Gogoss님의 최근 게시물 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
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Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 22
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
109351 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
109351 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
109351'> Cascade
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
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21/07/31 23:34
109351>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
개인적으로 금리 인상 해야 한다는 분들의 시각이 정확한 경제적 예측인 경우를 못 봤습니다.
오히려 부동산이 떨어져야 하는 이유에 금리 인상을 끼워맞추는 분들이 많으시더라구요.
그러니까 이러저러해서 금리 인상을 해야 한다가 아니라, 부동산이 문제니 금리 인상을 해야 한다는 시각인데
지금처럼 실물 경제가 크게 위축된 상황에서 우리나라만 금리 올릴 수가 없죠. 결국은 한은이나 기재부 스탠스가 아니라 연준 의중이 중요한건데, 그걸 정확히 맞출 수 있으면 여기서 댓글 다는 게 아니라 돈방석에 앉았겠죠.
저는 연준이 급... 더 보기
오히려 부동산이 떨어져야 하는 이유에 금리 인상을 끼워맞추는 분들이 많으시더라구요.
그러니까 이러저러해서 금리 인상을 해야 한다가 아니라, 부동산이 문제니 금리 인상을 해야 한다는 시각인데
지금처럼 실물 경제가 크게 위축된 상황에서 우리나라만 금리 올릴 수가 없죠. 결국은 한은이나 기재부 스탠스가 아니라 연준 의중이 중요한건데, 그걸 정확히 맞출 수 있으면 여기서 댓글 다는 게 아니라 돈방석에 앉았겠죠.
저는 연준이 급... 더 보기
개인적으로 금리 인상 해야 한다는 분들의 시각이 정확한 경제적 예측인 경우를 못 봤습니다.
오히려 부동산이 떨어져야 하는 이유에 금리 인상을 끼워맞추는 분들이 많으시더라구요.
그러니까 이러저러해서 금리 인상을 해야 한다가 아니라, 부동산이 문제니 금리 인상을 해야 한다는 시각인데
지금처럼 실물 경제가 크게 위축된 상황에서 우리나라만 금리 올릴 수가 없죠. 결국은 한은이나 기재부 스탠스가 아니라 연준 의중이 중요한건데, 그걸 정확히 맞출 수 있으면 여기서 댓글 다는 게 아니라 돈방석에 앉았겠죠.
저는 연준이 급격한 금리 인상을 절대 못할거라고 봅니다. 금리 인상 한다는 건 부동산 하락론자들의 행복회로라고 봅니다.
물론 연준이 금리를 인상한다면 부동산 가격에 꽤 영향이 갈 거라고 생각하긴 합니다.
오히려 부동산이 떨어져야 하는 이유에 금리 인상을 끼워맞추는 분들이 많으시더라구요.
그러니까 이러저러해서 금리 인상을 해야 한다가 아니라, 부동산이 문제니 금리 인상을 해야 한다는 시각인데
지금처럼 실물 경제가 크게 위축된 상황에서 우리나라만 금리 올릴 수가 없죠. 결국은 한은이나 기재부 스탠스가 아니라 연준 의중이 중요한건데, 그걸 정확히 맞출 수 있으면 여기서 댓글 다는 게 아니라 돈방석에 앉았겠죠.
저는 연준이 급격한 금리 인상을 절대 못할거라고 봅니다. 금리 인상 한다는 건 부동산 하락론자들의 행복회로라고 봅니다.
물론 연준이 금리를 인상한다면 부동산 가격에 꽤 영향이 갈 거라고 생각하긴 합니다.
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