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홍차넷
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뉴스
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- 새로운 뉴스를 올려주세요.
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전체기타정치IT/컴퓨터방송/연예스포츠경제문화/예술사회게임의료/건강과학/기술국제외신
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| Date |
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| Name | 카르스 |
| File #1 | thumb_2041357502_8FLKnsgy_2.jpg (160.3 KB), Download : 1 |
| File #2 | thumb_2041357502_R05htJ1j_5.jpg (192.1 KB), Download : 1 |
| Subject | 제3지대 신당 ‘별의 순간’ 올까 |
  (전략) 쉽지 않은 상황에서 빅텐트에 성공했지만 막상 통합 후 개혁신당에 대한 여론은 예상보다 취약하다. 왜 그럴까? 제3지대 정당의 흥행은 보수와 진보양 정당에 대한 ‘동시(同時) 심판론’을 자양분으로 한다. 제3지대 정치의 가능성을 열었던 2012년 총선과 대선에서의 ‘안철수 현상’, 2016년 국민의당 돌풍 당시와 비교해 보면 이번 총선의 ‘동시 심판론’의 토양은 상대적으로 취약하다. 국민의힘, 민주당 ‘동시 심판론’의 규모를 측정하자면 ‘정부여당 심판론(윤석열 정부와 국민의힘)’과 ‘야당(민주당) 심판론’ 각각에 대한 국민의 평가를 봐야 한다. 필자는 양당 중 어느 한 당에 대한 반감이 나머지 다른 정당에 대한 지지로 바로 연결되지 않는 ‘양가적·상충적 유권자(ambivalent)’층이 존재한다고 판단한다. 즉, A당을 심판하고 싶다고 당연히 B당을 선택하는 것이 아니라 B당이 대안이 되면 지지하고, 그렇지 않으면 다른 선택을 하는 특성을 가진 유권자층이 존재한다는 것이다. (중략) 올 4월 총선에서 개혁신당이 2016년 국민의당과 같은 돌풍을 일으킬 수 있을까? 제3지대 정당이 성공하려면 무당파나 미결정층을 자신의 지지층으로 흡수하는 ‘동원투표(mobilization)’와 기존 정당 지지층에서 지지를 철회하고 신당으로 지지를 옮기는 ‘전향투표(conversion)’를 동시에 만들어내야 한다. 양당 정치에 소외된 유권자층에게 ‘새로운 정치’의 기대감을 불러일으켜야 ‘동원’이 가능하고, 양당에 대한 공세를 통해 지지자들의 반감을 조직할 때 ‘전향’을 끌어낼 수 있다. 총선이 두 달도 남지 않은 현 상황은 어떨까? 우선 무당층이 줄어들어 신당 입장에서 새 지지층의 추가 동원이 쉽지 않다. 윤석열 정부 출범 이후 대표적인 전화면접 정기조사인 갤럽과 NBS 조사에 따르면 2023년 7~9월 사이 고점을 찍었던 무당파 비율이 이후 꾸준히 감소하기 시작했다. 국민의힘과 민주당의 지지율은 상대적으로 상승세에 있다. 무당파층 감소로 추가 동원이 어렵다면 남는 변수는 전향투표의 가능성이다. 결국 신당의 성공은 기존 양당 지지 기반에서의 이탈, 즉 전향을 만들어내지 않고서는 불가능하다. 수도권 혹은 충청권은 양당의 지지기반이 공고해 제3당이 아무리 경쟁력 있는 후보를 내더라도 지역구 의석 확보는 쉽지 않다. 호남과 영남(특히 대구·경북)은 양당의 핵심 기반이다. 역설적으로 각각 민주당과 국민의힘의 1당 독점 지역이기 때문에 신당이 경쟁력 있는 후보들을 낼 수만 있다면 일거에 1위 경쟁을 할 수 있는 지역이다. 실제로 전체 지역 중 광주·전라와 대구·경북에서만 무당파가 2위이다. 다른 지역에서는 양당 경쟁이 치열해 신당이 무당파 동원에 성공하더라도 1위 당선이 쉽지 않다. 호남과 대구·경북에서는 무당파 동원과 1당 표의 전향을 이뤄낸다면 지역구 의석 획득 가능성이 생긴다. (중략) 한국 정치의 역동성을 고려할 때 신당의 성과를 섣불리 단정하기는 어렵다. 2016년 총선 당시 한국일보 조사를 보면 1차 조사 시점인 2월에 더불어민주당 지지율은 16%, 국민의당 지지율은 7%에 불과했다. 하지만 3~4월 새누리당 공천 파동을 거치며 더불어민주당 지지율은 30%, 국민의당 지지율은 20%까지 치솟았다. 따라서 경선 과정에서의 양당 내부 균열 여부에 신당 지지율 반등 가능성이 연동된다. 더불어민주당에서 친명·친문 갈등이 커지고, 문재인 정부 지지층 이탈을 유발했던 ‘정권 교체 책임론’ 이슈가 재점화되면서 정권 심판론은 둔화 조짐을 보인다. 이는 민주당 심판론 내지 양당 동시 심판론을 자극할 가능성으로 이어질 수 있다. 2월 둘째 주 NBS 조사에서는 총선구도에서 우위를 보이던 정권 심판론을 정권 지원론이 앞질렀다. 정당 지지율에서도 국민의힘 지지율이 상승세로 전환될 조짐을 보인다. 더구나 민주당이나 국민의힘 공히 공천 과정에서 현역 의원들이 대거 탈당하는 사태가 촉발될 가능성도 있다. 당장은 동원투표도, 전향투표도 어려운 상태지만, 양당 공천 과정에서 신당에 기회가 올지도 모를 일이다. 무엇보다 제3지대의 성공은 몸집 불리기 이상으로 스스로의 존재감을 키워내는 데 달려 있다. 또 강력한 리더십 구축과 자강(自强) 의지 확립도 선결 과제다. 제3지대는 양당이 생산적 대안 제시는 뒷전이고, 상대방에 대한 네거티브 공세로 반사이익만 꾀한다고 비판해왔다. 따라서 제3지대는 포지티브한 의제 발굴, 혁신적인 대안 제시에도 심혈을 기울여야 한다. 과거 제3의 정치세력들이 선거에 임박해 아무런 해명도 없이 양 진영으로 은근슬쩍 복귀해 극한 대결에 앞장선 전례도 신당의 발목을 잡을 수도 있다. 우리 정치는 무한 대립과 소모적 정쟁의 늪에서 빠져나오지 못하고 있다. 유권자들은 그 책임을 거대 양당뿐만 아니라 자신의 입지를 버리고 진영 논리에 가세한 과거의 제3세력, 제3정당에게도 묻고 있다. 이번 4월 총선에서 신당의 성패는 양당 정치의 폐해에 신물이 난 유권자들에게 다당제 정치의 실현 가능성과 비전을 얼마나 확고히 어필하느냐에 달려 있다고 할 것이다. 출처: https://jmagazine.joins.com/monthly/view/339237 ============================================================= 믿고보는 정한울의 현 정세 분석. 구구절절 동의합니다 개인적으로 제일 인상깊었던 부분은, 양당 동시 심판론자들이 생각보다 적다는 지적입니다. 인터넷만 보면 과반은 기본으로 넘기는 것 같지만 현실은.. 2010년 이후 총선만 보자면 두번째로 낮은 비율. 2020년 총선보다는 높지만 그땐 한국정치사에서 예외적인 친민주당 시기였으니. 거기에 무당층 비중마져 많이 낮아졌고(이건 한국갤럽 여조에서도 관찰됨)... 제3세력에 대한 비판도 동의합니다. 글 마지막 문단은 속이 다 시원. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 카르스님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
296258 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
296258 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
296258'> 스티브잡스
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
24/02/28 20:40
296258>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
시간이 너무 없어요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
2
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
2
296258>
296258>
