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홍차넷
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뉴스
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- 새로운 뉴스를 올려주세요.
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전체기타정치IT/컴퓨터방송/연예스포츠경제문화/예술사회게임의료/건강과학/기술국제외신
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| Date |
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| Name | 카르스 |
| Subject | 2024년 총선, ‘승패의 방정식’은 이미 정해져 있다 |
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2022년부터 투표율은 왜 다시 떨어지는 것일까? ‘한 시대의 미션’이 일단락되었기 때문일 가능성이 크다. 여기서 ‘한 시대의 미션’이란, ①노무현 전 대통령의 죽음에 대한 미안함 ②이명박-박근혜 정부에 대한 반감 ③유럽식 복지국가 노선에 대한 기대감이다. 그럼, 한 시대의 미션은 왜 일단락되었을까? 문재인 정부가 출범하고 진보적 사회경제 정책을 상당부분 실험해봤기 때문이다. ①문재인 대통령의 당선과 적폐청산 작업을 통해 노무현 전 대통령의 죽음에 대한 미안함이 어느 정도 풀렸다. ②문재인 정부의 출범을 통해 이명박-박근혜 정부에 대한 반감도 어느 정도 털었다. ③유럽식 복지국가 노선의 경우, 소득주도성장 정책을 비롯한 진보적 사회경제 정책을 상당부분 해봤다. 성과도 있었고, 부작용도 발생했다. 경제학에는 ‘경기변동론’이 정설로 자리 잡았다. 경제는 호황기와 불황기를 반복하는 경기순환을 거친다. 정치도 유사하다. 투표율 하락기가 있고, 투표율 상승기가 있다. 국면의 변동이 작동한다. 셋째, 2024년 4월 총선은 어떻게 되는 것일까? 선거공학적 관점에 국한해서 보면, 민주당에는 나쁜 징조 두 가지와 좋은 징조 한 가지가 혼재한다. 나쁜 징조는 두 가지다. 하나는, 2030세대가 투표율 하락을 주도하고 있다. 이는 2024년 총선에도 지속될 가능성이 있다. 다른 하나는, 한국갤럽은 2016년 1월부터 진보-보수 이념 지형을 조사하고 있는데, 2021년 3분기 이후 다시 ‘보수 우위’로 바뀌었다. 2016년 3분기 국정농단 사태 이후, ‘진보 우위’가 되고 오랫동안 유지됐다. 2021년 4·7 재보선 이후, 3분기를 기점으로 다시 ‘보수 우위’ 구도가 됐다. 정치지형만 놓고 보면 민주당이 불리한 형국이다. 좋은 징조 한 가지도 있다. 윤석열 대통령이 ‘공산-전체주의 세력’과의 투쟁에 나섰다는 점이다. 한국 정치에서 8·15 광복절은 매우 무게감 있는 행사다. 역대 대통령들은 광복절에 국가 비전과 외교적 중대 제안을 발표해왔다. 윤 대통령은 달랐다. 뜬금없이 ‘공산-전체주의 세력’과의 전면적 투쟁을 선언했다. 이후 홍범도, 김좌진 장군 등이 ‘공산주의자’라고 공격하기 시작했다. 오죽하면, 국정원 출신 이종찬 대한광복회 회장이 반대하고 나설 정도다. 홍범도, 김좌진, 이범석 등은 박정희 대통령 이후 역대 진보와 보수 대통령을 막론하고 업적을 인정했던 분들이다. 윤 대통령 스스로가 뉴라이트 세력의 이념에 ‘진하게’ 포섭되고 있음을 방증한다. 2016년 총선을 앞두고 민주당은 위기였다. 안철수와 호남 의원들이 대규모 탈당했다. 그러나, 결국 원내 1당이 됐다. 한 축으로는 스스로 혁신했고, 한 축으로는 박근혜 정부가 유승민 원내대표 찍어내기, 국정교과서 추진 등을 통해 ‘이념 편향적인’ 세력임을 스스로 입증했기 때문이다. 1987년 민주화 이후 9번의 총선이 있었다. 선거 승패를 좌우했던 두 개의 방정식이 작동했다. 첫째, 상대방 실책에 의한 ‘반사이익’이다. 집권 여당이든 야당이든 지나친 강경함은 언제나 ‘상대방 선거운동’을 도와주게 된다. 현재도 유효하다. 둘째, 혁신과 확장을 주도하면 승리했다. 정치에서 혁신 개념의 본질은 ‘약점을 보완하는 것’이다. 약점 보완을 주도하면 혁신 이미지를 선도하게 된다. 확장의 본질은 ‘중도 확장’이다. 민주당에는 ‘중도는 허상’이라고 생각하는 사람이 수두룩하다. 중도 확장과 거리가 먼 발상이다. 선거는 ‘51% 예술’이다. 지지층을 결집하되, 중도 확장에 성공해야만 51%가 가능하다. 혁신과 확장 없이, 반사이익만으로는 승리하지 못한다. ======================================================================================== 다 동의하지는 않지만, 생각할 거리를 많이 주는 최병천의 칼럼이라 가져왔습니다. 다만 2022년 지선 투표율 하락에 너무 큰 의미를 부여한 것 같네요. 대선 세 달만에 투표라, 정치 저관심층에게는 피로감을 주었을 가능성이 높거든요. 2008년 총선도 비슷했습니다. 청년 투표율의 큰 하락은 눈여겨볼 지표지만. (여긴 대선때도 투표율 감소했으니) Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 이 게시판에 등록된 카르스님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
283943 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
283943 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
283943'> 토비
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
23/09/03 15:11
283943>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
투표율은 이제 큰 의미가 없는 것 같습니다.
과거에는 투표율이 낮으면 진보가 불리하다고 했는데 딱히 그런 경향도 없고, 투표율이 높다고 해서 좋은 지도자가 뽑히는 것도 아니라는 점이 여러차례 증명되었다고 생각합니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
5
과거에는 투표율이 낮으면 진보가 불리하다고 했는데 딱히 그런 경향도 없고, 투표율이 높다고 해서 좋은 지도자가 뽑히는 것도 아니라는 점이 여러차례 증명되었다고 생각합니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
5
283943>
283943>
