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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 15/09/10 14:30:32 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | MANAGYST |
| Subject | 국내 수출부진에 대한 소고 |
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-14.7% 8월 우리나라 수출액 감소를 나타내는 숫자입니다. 깜짝 놀랄만한 숫자여서 무역규모, 불황형 흑자 이런 말들이 떠돌고 있네요. 그래서 오늘은 작년초 기사를 하나 가져왔습니다. [ANALYSIS]역(逆)글로벌화 시대 시작?…미국 ‘나 홀로 성장’에 변방국가 ‘덜덜’ http://news.mk.co.kr/newsRead.php?year=2014&no=293509 18개월 전 기사지만, 핵심을 잘 집어주었다고 생각되는데요 ^^; 미국의 리쇼어링, 생산기지로서 중국의 경쟁력 약화 스토리는 여전히 중요합니다. 다만, 올해 무역 상황에서 한 가지 추가된 것이 있다면, "가격의 영향력이 크게 확대되었다"가 될 것 같습니다. 그래서 한국 무역협회 자료를 보면서 몇 가지 시사점을 찾아봤습니다. 1. 어쨌든 세계 교역은 많이 줄었다. 가격 요인이 컸다고는 하지만, 수출이 10%, 수입은 13% 줄었으니 정말 많이 줄긴 했습니다. 더욱 우려되는 점은 지난 2010년 이후로 무역액 증가율이 계속해서 하락하고 있다는 점입니다. "고용 없는 성장"이라는 말에 이어 "무역 없는 성장"이라는 단어가 나올지 궁금하네요. 신선한 말이긴 하지만, 둘 다 지속될 수는 없을 텐데 걱정입니다. 2. 가격의 영향력이 압도적이었다. 놀랍게도 올해 우리나라의 수출입 물량은 늘었습니다. 수출(+2.3%), 수입(+1.2%). 그런데 단가가 엄청나게 하락했네요. 수입과 수출이 각각 14% 내외로 급락했습니다. 가격이 하락한 영향이 절대적이었다는 겁니다. 물론 물량 기준으로도 증가율이 줄었다는 것은 부정할 수 없는 사실입니다. 3. 나라별 수출입 금액 DATA (참고) 우리나라의 수출은 상대적으로 정말 선방했다고 볼 수 있습니다. “잘했다”가 아니라, 다른 나라들에 비하면, “그나마 선방했다”입니다. 수출 상위10개국 중에서 10% 이하로 막은 나라는 5개에 불과하고, 중국과 홍콩을 제외하면 하락폭은 가장 작았으니, 선방했다고 볼 수 있습니다. 결론적으로 신문 기사들만 보면, 우리나라가 당장 폭망할 것 같지만, 그 정도는 아니다라고 할 수 있겠습니다. 4. 구체적으로 보면, 더 잘했다. 해당국가의 수입이 얼마나 감소 했는지와 그래서 그 나라에 대한 우리나라의 수출이 얼마나 줄었는지를 비교해보면, 미국의 경우에는 전체적으로 수입이 3% 감소했는데, 우리나라는 미국向 수출이 5.5% 늘었으니 잘했다고 볼 수 있는 거죠. 그리고 중국을 대상으로도 장사를 잘했습니다. 중국은 15% 감소했지만, 우리나라는 2%만 줄었습니다. 물론 “에이~ 그게 뭐 잘 한거냐” 할 수도 있습니다. 왜냐면, 유가 등 가격에 영향을 받았던 품목의 비중을 따져봐야 하기 때문이죠. 그래도.. 그냥 잘했다고 칭찬도 좀 해주고 하는 걸로 하겠습니다. (결 론) - 아직 우리나라의 경쟁력 약화를 이야기할 정도는 아니라는 판단. - 다만, 장담할 수 있는 문제는 아님. “중국이 따라온다” 이런 이야기는 여전히 유효. - 그래도 어려운 외부 환경하에서도 우리기업들이 나름 선방했다는 점은 인정하자. - 언제까지 어려운 외부 환경(무역량이 줄어드는)이 언제까지 지속될지 여부가 중요! - 디플레이션 환경 속에서 M/S경쟁을 할 수 밖에 없는 상황. - 지금처럼 잘하고 있으면, 기회를 잡을 수 있을 거라는 정도의 희망은 남겨두기! P.S 수출이 너무 부진하니, 우리나라 제조업 경쟁력이 약화된 거 아니냐는 의견이 많고, 저두 일정부분 동의합니다. 그런데 오늘 제가 우리 기업들을 옹호?하는 이야기를 쓴 이유는 경쟁력 약화라는 것이 아직 숫자로는 확인되지 않고 있다는 것을 이야기하기 위해서입니다. 물론 시장은 빨라서 오지 않을 미래까지 예상하며, 가격에 반영합니다만, 어쨌든 다른 나라대비 잘하고 있다는 건 경쟁력이 약화되었다는 증거로 사용될 순 없죠. - 제조업 경쟁력이 나빠졌다는 것은 이미 확인된 사실이다(X) → 잘하고 있음 - 앞으로도 지금처럼 잘할 것임(?) → 걱정되는 부분되 있긴 있음 요정도로 정리하면 되지 않을까요? http://managyst.com/220470265975 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 이 게시판에 등록된 MANAGYST님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
14331 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
14331 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
14331'> Beer Inside
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/09/10 15:00
14331>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
두가지 문제가 있지요.
정부 보조금과 최저임금으로 버티는 한계업종이 언제까지 버틸것인가?
기술력이 있는 줄 알았는데, 알고 보니 저가 수주에 기술력이 없어서 배상금만 물고 있는 중공업은 언제까지 정부가 지원할 수 있을까?
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
정부 보조금과 최저임금으로 버티는 한계업종이 언제까지 버틸것인가?
기술력이 있는 줄 알았는데, 알고 보니 저가 수주에 기술력이 없어서 배상금만 물고 있는 중공업은 언제까지 정부가 지원할 수 있을까?
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
14331>
14331>
