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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | MANAGYST |
| Subject | 점점 더 중요해지는 돈 버는 능력 |
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1. 돈 많은집 아들이지만, 안똑똑~해서 돈 많이 못버는 남자랑 결혼하시겠어요? 2. 가난한 집 자식이지만, 똑똑똑~해서 돈 잘~ 버는 남자랑 결혼하시겠어요? 물론 돈도 많은데, 똑똑하면 쵝오! 그래도 하나만 선택하라고 하면, 1번은 선택하시는 분들이 많을 듯 합니다. 아무리 돈을 잘 벌어도, 수십억 자산가 집안 자제분이 사는데 도움이 되죠. 근데, 앞으로 (아주 서서히라는 가정하에) 2번을 선택하시는 분들이 많아질 것 같습니다. 오늘은 그렇게 생각하는 이유에 대해서 간단하게 풀어보려고 합니다. I. 돈 버는 능력이 중요하다고? 그걸 모르는 사람도 있냐? 좋은 질문입니다. 그런데, 제가 오늘 하고 싶은 말은 돈을 버는 능력이 중요하다는 게 아닙니다. "돈을 버는 능력" 자체의 가치가 올라간다는 것을 이야기하고 싶은 겁니다. 예를 들어보죠. 공부 잘하는 거. 중요합니다. 그런데 최근에는 공부를 잘하지 못해도 성공하는 사람들이 늘어나고, 실제로 그것을 부러워하는 사람도 늘어났습니다. 그러니 "공부를 잘하는 것"의 가치는 과거보다는 떨어졌다. 라고 말할 수 있습니다. 그래도 여전히 공부 잘하는 거는 중요합니다. 다만, 그 중요성이 과거보다 줄어들었다는 거죠. 네. 오늘 제가 하고 싶은 말은 돈버는 능력이 중요하다는 사실이 아니라 그 중요성이 점점 커진다는 사실을 이야기하고 싶다는 겁니다. 그런데... 소위 선수라고 하시는 분들은 왜 다들 Cash flow를 강조할까요? (저도 선수는 아니지만, Cash Flow 창출 능력은 매우 중요하게 생각합니다 ^^;) II. 돈 버는 능력이 점점 더 중요해지는 이유 제가 생각하는 두 가지 포인트를 정리해볼까? 합니다. 2가지 이유입니다. 1) 자산가격이 너무 올라갔기 때문입니다. 2) 저금리 시대이기 때문입니다. 1) 자산가격이 올라간게 왜? 뭐가 어때서? 좋은 거 아니야? 우리 딸은 4살입니다. 우리 딸에게 2차방정식을 풀 것을 요구하진 않아요 그냥 퇴근한 저에게 애교만 몇번 해줘도 그냥 녹습니다~ 근데 만약 제가 2차방정식을 못 풀면(?) 고건 문제가 됩니다. (공대 출신이라서..고작 생각해낸 게 2차방정식입니다 죄송) 주식도 부동산도 마찬가지입니다. 자산의 가격이 올라가면, 사람들은 더 많은 걸 요구합니다. 생각해보세요. $1짜리 주식은 $1원만 올라도 100%가 오른거지만, $100리 주식이 $1원 오르면 겨우 1% 오른 겁니다. 똑같이 $1 올랐지만, $1짜리 주식에게는 "Great Job~!"하는데, $100짜리 주식한테는 "에게~ 겨우 요거? So what?"한다는 거죠. 잘 아시는 것처럼 금융위기 이후 자산가격이 모두 많~이 올랐습니다. 그런데 자산가격이 올라하면 사람들은 "우와~! 기분 좋다. 앞으로 더 많이 올라가겠지? 기대된다~!"라고만 생각할 뿐, "자산가격이 상승할수록 기대할 수 있는 수익률(Expected return)은 낮아진다"것을 의미하는지는 간과하는 경우가 많습니다. 기대할 수 있는 수익률이 낮아진다고??? 확정된 수익률은 (번 돈)을 (투자한 돈, Invested capital)으로 나누면 구해집니다. 그런데 기대수익률이란 (벌 것으로 예상되는 돈)을 (투자해야 하는 돈)으로 나눠야 합니다. 기대수익률 = 벌고 싶은 돈 / 투자해야 하는 돈(현재 자산가격) 전세계 자산가격이 올라갔다는 것은 위식의 분모인 "투자해야 하는 돈"이 커졌다는 걸 의미하고, 분모가 커졌으니 당연히 기대수익률은 낮아져야합니다. 하지만, 현실은?그렇지 않습니다. 자산가격이 올라가더라도 사람들은 더 많은 수익을 요구합니다. 상황이 이러하다보니, 덩치에 맞는 Cash를 창출할 수 있는 능력을 가진 회사들이 귀해집니다. 덩치는 커졌는데, 덩치에 맞는 능력을 가진 회사가 줄어든다는 거죠. 이 부분이 정말 중요!! ★★★★★★ 당연히 돈을 못 버는 자산들은 가치가 점점 떨어지고, 현금을 만들어내는 능력을 가진 자산들의 가치는 점점 올라갑니다. 2) 저금리가 지속되기 때문에 현금(Cash Flow)이 더욱 중요해진다. 기업의 가치를 결정하는데 있어 가장 중요한 개념중 하나는 "현재가치"를 구하는 것입니다. 앞으로 매년 최소한 100만원을 벌 수 있을 것 같은 회사의 현재가치는 얼마일까? 이런거죠. 이 때 가장 중요한 건 뭘까요? 바로 Discount rate(할인율)입니다. 그리고 Discount rate를 결정하는 것은 금리입니다. 그런데, 모두 잘 아시는 것처럼 금리는 지금 매우 낮은 상황입니다. 미래가치를 현재화 할 때 금리가 높을 때보다는 낮을 때 Cash Flow의 가치는 높아집니다. 앞으로도 저금리 환경은 지속될 가능성이 높기 때문에 현금을 창출할 수 있는 능력을 가진 회사의 가치는 더 높아질 수 밖에 없습니다. 이제 좀 억지스러운 질문이었지만, 돈 많은 집 아들이냐? 돈 버는 능력있는 남자냐? 라는 질문을 서두에 꺼낸 이유를 아시겠죠? III. 우리에게 주는 몇가지 교훈 : 투자의 관점과 생활의 관점 1) 투자 관점 - Cash flow를 창출할 수 있는 능력이 있는 회사에 더욱 집중 - 여기서 Cash flow 창출 능력이란 과거의 능력이 아니라 미래의 능력을 의미함을 명심 - 과거의 이익을 기준으로 현재 배당수익률이 얼마니깐 매력있다. 이런 식의 접근은 절대 안됨! 2) 생활의 관점 김무성 대표가 얼마전에 놀라운 이야기를 했습니다. 나는 "표를 잃더라도" 노동개혁에 총력을 기울이겠다. 이걸 "김대표님이 표를 잃고 싶구나"라고 이해하시는 분은 없겠죠? "김대표님이 노동개혁을 해도 표를 잃지 않을 수 있는 묘안이 있구나" 현재 노동시장을 "아빠와 아들간의 일자리 싸움"으로 규정합니다. 이를테면, 아들의 일자리를 아빠가 다 뺏어간다라는 식이죠. 혹은 이미 취직한 사람들이 너무 많은 혜택을 누리고 있기 때문에 능력있는 젊은이들이 취직을 못한다. 그리고, 정년을 연장해줬으니..연봉도 좀 덜 받고, 쉽게 짤릴 수도 있어야 하는 거 아니냐는 주장을 하죠. (지금 그렇게 하고 있습니다) 어쨌든 이런 방식으로 노동개혁은 매우 신속하게 진행될 겁니다. 대한민국의 모든 직장인 분들은 현재 한국 경제가 어려워진 근본적인 원인제공자가 되실 마음의 준비를 하셔야 합니다. 그런 의미에서 생활의 관점에서 찾을 수 있는 교훈을 정리해봤습니다. - 안정적인 직장의 가치는 더욱 올라갈 듯. - 안정적인 직장이라는 개념을 없애려는 시도도 무차별적으로 진행될 가능성. - 내가 포기하지 않더라도 회사는 당신을 포기할 수 있음(자발적, 비자발적 포함) - 따라서 회사가 당신을 포기하지 않게 해야 함. - 혹은 스스로 Cash Flow를 창출할 수 있는 뭔가를 개발해야 함. http://managyst.com/220415925567 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 MANAGYST님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
13763 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
13763 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
13763'> 레이드
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/09/07 10:01
13763>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
흑흑... 왠지 이런 글들이 앞으로 젊은 사람들에게 점점 더 결혼할 수 있는 가능성이 줄어든다..라고 읽히는 건 저뿐만은 아니겠죠 흑흑. 어렵습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
13763>
13763>
