Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 278
홍차넷
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 18/10/30 07:23:45 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | AGuyWithGlasses |
| Subject | 페이롤로 알아보는 보스턴 레드삭스의 2019년 우승 가능성. |
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보스턴 레드삭스는 그간의 성공적인 투자로 결국 올해 월드시리즈 우승을 차지하는데 성공합니다. 보스턴 팬으로써는 너무나 팀이 자랑스럽고 기쁜 순간입니다. 2000년대 가장 우승을 많이 한 팀이기도 하지요. 하지만 사람의 욕심은 끝이 없는법. 2019년에도 HOXY...하는 생각이 드는 것은 당연합니다. 그렇다면 내년도 보스턴 레드삭스는 현재의 로스터에서 얼마나 변화가 있을까...를 팀 페이롤(전반적인 계약상황)을 통해 대충 알아볼까요. 자료는 baseball-reference.com를 참조했습니다. 내년에 FA가 되는 선수들 명단입니다. 괄호안은 2018년 연봉. 2B 이안 킨슬러(11Mil$) CP 크레익 킴브럴(13Mil$) 1B 스티브 피어스(6.25Mil$) SP 드류 포메란츠(8.5Mil$) SP 네이선 이오발디(2Mil$) RP 조 켈리(3.83Mil$) 이외에 데이빗 프라이스(30Mil$)가 옵트아웃이 가능하고, SP 크리스 세일의 팀옵션(15Mil$), 3B 누네즈는 5Mil$의 팀 옵션이 있습니다. 세일의 팀 옵션은 무조건 실행될 것이고(내년 세일을 1년 15mi$l에 쓸 수 있는데 누가 안 하겠습니까), 프라이스는 옵트아웃을 하지 않을 것입니다. 누네즈는 팀 옵션 미실행시 2Mil$을 주고 바이아웃되며, 이 2Mil$은 페이롤에 포함됩니다. 프라이스, 세일은 남고, 누네즈와 위에 언급한 6명을 제외하면 확정 팀 샐러리가 어떻게 될까요? 안타깝게도 그것만으로 거의 사치세 라인을 넘어설 가능성이 높습니다. 왜냐하면 이 팀은 올해 메이저리그에서 가장 많은 돈을 쓴 구단이기 때문입니다. 총 페이롤 규모가 약 229Mil$ 사치세 라인인 198Mil$은 예전에 넘었으며 2차 사치세 라인까지 딱 맞춰서 운영한 팀입니다. 여담으로 2차 사치세 라인을 넘어가면 그때부터는 드래프트 픽을 잃습니다.. 현재 확정된 계약들을 보면, 프라이스 31Mil + JD 23.75Mil + 페드로이아 15Mil + 포셀로 21.12Mil + 러스니 카스티요 11.77Mil(ㅂㄷㅂㄷ...) + 산도발 바이아웃 18.6Mil(야이...) + 크리스 세일 15Mil + 포수 바스케스 2.85Mil + 모어랜드 6.5Mil = 145.59Mil$ 여기에 연봉조정 대상자 선수들이 추가됩니다. 조정 2년차 무키 베츠(전해 10.5Mil) + 조정 3년차 젠더 보가츠(전해 7.05Mil) + 조정 2년차 JBJ(전해 6.1Mil) + 조정 1년차 E-Rod(전해 2.38Mil) + 조정 3년차 브록 홀트(전해 2.23Mil) + 조정 3년차 타일러 쏜벅(전해 2.05Mil) + 조정 2년차 샌디 레온(전해 1.95Mil) + 그외 1Mil이 안되는 선수들 기타 등등... 레퍼런스는 이 선수들의 조정 이후 총 연봉을 러프하게 리그 평균치로 계산해서 58.4Mil로 계산하고 있습니다. 실제로는 변동이 있겠지만 지금 우리가 그걸 정확하게 알 길은 없습니다. 그래서 이 58.4Mil을 갖다 쓰도록 하겠습니다. 그러면 여기에서 이미 194.3Mil$이 나옵니다. 여기에 조정 이전 단계에 해당되는 선수들(대충 4Mil 정도로 잡습니다)까지 더하면 198Mil$쯤 됩니다. 위에서 언급한 7명 중 단 한 명도 계약하지 않아도 이미 사치세라인인 겁니다. 여기에 팀의 미래도 생각해야 합니다. 세일, 보거츠는 내년에 FA가 됩니다. 베츠와 JBJ는 2년 후 FA가 되구요. JBJ를 놓친다 하더라도 최소 저 셋은 현 상황에서 100% 잡아야 합니다. 현재 로스터에서는 대체할 선수가 없거든요. 저 만 재계약해도 거의 연 8천 이상 나온다고 봐야 합니다. 저 셋중 하나 놓칠수도 있는 상황이죠. 그런걸 따졌을 때 현재 이 이상 돈을 쓰기 쉽지 않다는 결론이 나옵니다(이미 MLB에서 가장 돈을 많이 쓰는 팀이구요). 물론 리버풀+레드삭스를 모조리 성공적으로 이끌고 있는 구단주께서 계속 사치세 물겠다고 하시면 뭐 할 말은 없습니다만 일단 보수적으로 생각하도록 하겠습니다. 여기까지는 팩트고, 지금부터는 그래서 내년에 보스턴은 어떻게 해야하는가...에 대한 제 사견을 적을까 합니다. 우선 위와 같은 이유로 외부영입은 꿈도 꾸지 못할 겁니다. 코빈..하퍼... 다 남의 떡입니다. 필라나 양키스 간다고 봐야합니다. 그렇다면 남은 7명 중에 현재 가지고 있는 자원으로 최대한 대체할 수 있는 선수들을 제외하고 꼭 필요한 선수만 재계약하고 이적시장 샷다 닫는 그림이 그려집니다. 뭐 트레이드가 일어날 수도 있겠지만 변수가 너무 커지니 일단 트레이드는 제외하도록 하겠습니다. 우선 킨슬러, 포메란츠는 100% 바이바이입니다. 킨슬러는 페디의 부상으로 영입한 선수이지만 그렇게 큰 도움이 되진 못했고, 페디가 돌아오면 홀트와 함께 쓰면 되기 때문입니다. 페디가 매년 노쇠해가지만 보스턴은 나머지 자리 타력이 강한 팀이라 그정도면 충분합니다. 홀트도 좋은 선수구요. 포메란츠는 실패한 트레이드로 기억에 남겠군요. 그야말로 보스턴 입장에선 작년 한때 빼곤 거의 망한 선수입니다. 누네즈도 이제 다버스가 있으니 놔 주는게 맞지 않을까 싶습니다. 보스턴도 3루 잔혹사를 이제 끊어야죠. 백업으로는 린즈웨이가 있는데 2년 연속 쏠쏠했습니다. 킴브럴도 잡기 쉽지 않을 겁니다. 올 시즌 조금 하향세를 보인데다가 포스트시즌에서 보여준 모습은 좀 그랬죠. 오히려 조 켈리를 잡아야 한다고 생각합니다. 켈리를 잡아서 반즈, 브레이저와 함께 마무리 테스트를 하는 것이죠. 물론 내년도 펜웨이는 극장이 자주 벌어지겠습니다만... 관건은 켈리에게 얼마까지 줘야 하냐는 거겠죠. 일단 연차는 제외하고 연 7~8Mil 정도 예상합니다. 피어스... 정말 잡고 싶습니다... 연 7Mil에 어떻게 남아줄 수 있나요ㅠㅠ라고 생각하면 도둑놈일까요. 출장경기수가 좀 적었다는 점은 위안거리입니다만 보스턴에서 50경기 뛰는 동안 .279 .394 .507입니다... 이 성적이면 어딜가도 최소 5번타자; 저는 못 잡는다고 생각합니다. 모어랜드로 떼워야죠. 이오발디는 건강하다는 가정하에 무조건 잡아야 한다고 생각합니다. 사실 지금까지 나온 6명을 다 놓치더라도 이오발디가 1순위입니다. 20년 팬질하면서 느낀건데 다른 팀도 그렇지만 특히나 알동부 팀들은 확실한 선발투수를 다섯, 5선발 후보감까지는 7~8명까지 쌓아놓고 시즌 시작해야 합니다. 이렇게 해도 시즌중에 선발투수 모자라서 긴급수혈하는 사례 쌔고 쌨습니다. 거의 안 그랬던 해가 없어요. 아니면 스윙맨을 엄청 굴려먹었던가요. 우승시즌인 04, 07, 13, 18조차 선발투수 문제로 고생 안했던 해가 없습니다. 지금도 세일, 프라이스, 포셀로, 라이트, E로드, 브라이언 존슨, 기타 등이 있지만 라이트의 건강이 의문시되는 시점에서 이오발디급 선발투수는 필수입니다. 양키즈전에 강하다는 것도 플러스구요. 아무리 젊다지만 토미존 경력 2번에 소화이닝수가 적어서 포스트시즌 엄청난 활약에도 불구하고 이오발디가 그렇게 비싸지는 않을 겁니다. 류현진과 비슷한 경우죠. 길어야 4년에 연 10Mil정도 예상하는데 맥시멈 연 12까지는 봅니다. 그 이상 주고 데려가는 팀이 있으면 뭐 어쩔 수 없구요. 결론적으로 제 선택은 이오발디, 피어스, 켈리 순으로 잡고 싶고 나머지는 잡지 않는다입니다. 이렇게 셋만 잡아도 거의 지금 수준의 페이롤이군요 쿨럭... 사실 계약예상은 제가 요즘 믈브 FA시장 돌아가는 걸 예측하는 촉이 많이 떨어져서 정확하지 않을 수 있습니다. 생각과 많이 다른 점이 있으시면 댓글로 지적해주세요. 그래서 우승 가능성? 양키스가 얼마나 보강하는지에 따라 다르겠지만 지구우승도 쉽지 않을 겁니다... 올해 템파 성장하는 거 보면 무서움 그 자체고 양키스는 보강 전인 지금도 100승 팀이었는데 최소 빅네임을 둘 데려올겁니다. 지구 2위로 와일드카드에 나가서 어찌저찌 해봐야 할 겁니다. * 수정 : 러스니 카스티요는 40인 로스터에서 주욱 제외되었던 선수라 연봉이 페이롤에 들어가지 않는다고 합니다. 그러면 피어스까진 지를 수 있겠다.. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 이 게시판에 등록된 AGuyWithGlasses님의 최근 게시물
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18/10/30 08:42
116564>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
MVP님 제바류ㅠㅠㅠㅠㅠㅠ 남아주십쇼 도게자
보스턴은 프라이스와 포셀로 계약이 끝나더라도(카스티요랑 산도발은 어차피 내 돈아님 아무튼 아님) 4B를 모두 잡아야한단 점에서 페이롤 낮출길은 요원해보여요. 브래들리도 수비 하나만으로 충분히 잡을만한 선수구요. 세일도 남겨야하고.
어차피 존 헨리는 그런거 신경 안쓰는 구단주고 이번에 우승했으니 몇년간은 맘편히 보겠네요. 클리블랜드가 우승한번 했음 싶은데. 얘네도 지금 전력을 끌고 갈수있는건 거의 막바지인데.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
보스턴은 프라이스와 포셀로 계약이 끝나더라도(카스티요랑 산도발은 어차피 내 돈아님 아무튼 아님) 4B를 모두 잡아야한단 점에서 페이롤 낮출길은 요원해보여요. 브래들리도 수비 하나만으로 충분히 잡을만한 선수구요. 세일도 남겨야하고.
어차피 존 헨리는 그런거 신경 안쓰는 구단주고 이번에 우승했으니 몇년간은 맘편히 보겠네요. 클리블랜드가 우승한번 했음 싶은데. 얘네도 지금 전력을 끌고 갈수있는건 거의 막바지인데.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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