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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 난커피가더좋아 | |||||||||
| Subject | 그리스 위기 즈음에 돌아보는 한국의 IMF(최종편) | |||||||||
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마지막편입니다. 1편 https://new.redtea.kr/pb/pb.php?id=free&no=559 2편 https://new.redtea.kr/pb/pb.php?id=free&no=581 3편 https://new.redtea.kr/pb/pb.php?id=free&no=599&category=9 --------------------------- 그리스 위기 즈음에 돌아보는 한국의 IMF 위기(부제:한국의 착한아이 컴플렉스) 최종회 1. 개방된 금융시장에 새로운 규율은 없었다. 제목에 쓴 저 말 한 마디가 IMF 위기로 치닫는 상황을 적절하게 표현해줍니다. 이전 연재들에서 몇번 언급했던 김병국/임혁백 고대 정외과교수, 장하준 캠브리지대 경제학과 교수, 신장섭 싱가포르국립대 경제학과 교수 등의 석학들이 대체로 동의하는 지점입니다. 우선 김병국과 임혁백은 1990년대 초 중반의 한국/대만/일본을 비교하면서 '경제의 국가주도성'과 '규율의 존재여부'를 각각 하나의 축으로 해서 2x2 테이블을 만듭니다.
표를 보시면 직관적으로 이해는 되시겠지만, 약간만 설명하면, 대만은 '경성 발전국가'에서 '연성 발전국가'로 변화하지만 여전히 '국가주도의 규율된 발전전략'을 갖는 형태였고요, 일본은 1980년대 워싱턴 콘센서스 이후 '시장경제 중심'으로 이동한 상태였다는 겁니다. 그런데 한국은 앞서 3편에서 설명한 역사적 맥락과 경로의존성에 따라 매우 혼란스러운 상황을 맞이하게 됐다는 거죠. '세계화'와 '금융시장 개방'을 통해 OECD 가입을 서두르면서 '기존의 발전국가 시스템'을 해체했는데, 다른 규제나 규율방식이 제대로 등장하거나 법제도적으로 완비되지 않아, 그리고 모두가 합의할 수 있는 룰 자체가 존재하지 않아 극도의 불안정성과 혼란을 보이게 됐다는 겁니다. 이런 상황에서 재벌들은 정부와의 갈등 혹은 관치금융으로부터의 자본조달이 막힐 때 마다 해외투자금을 '단기외채'형태로 끌어 당기게 되고 취약성과 민감성이 동시에 커지는 상황이 발생합니다. 여기에서 신장섭/장하준 교수팀 역시 흥미로운 분석을 내놓습니다. 정부주도의 산업정책이 만들어낸 도덕적 해이가 문제다라는 서구학자들의 지적부터 반박합니다. 먼저 한국 대기업들은 정부로부터 '수출성과에 따라' 지원을 받았던 측면이 있어서 서구 학자들이 지적하듯 재벌의 도덕적 해이로 모든 책임을 모는 건 부당하다고 주장합니다. 오히려 정부주도의 '산업정책'이 해체되면서 재벌이 눈치 안보고 외채 땡기는 습관이 생긴게 더 문제라는 겁니다. '대마불사'론을 믿는 재벌들의 방만경영 역시 1960~80년대까지 거대한 재벌들이 쓰러지는 일이 꽤 많았기 때문에, 설득력이 떨어진다고 반박합니다. 그리고 이와 연결된 기업의 부채비율 역시 다른 국가와 비교해보면 아주 높은 수준은 아니었다고 주장합니다.(제가 읽어봐도 이 부분은 약간 설득력이 떨어집니다. 어쨌든 높았으니까요) 그리고 이 두 석학은, 1996년부터 급격하게 악화된 한국 경제의 이면을 들여다보면서, '반도체 가격하락'(용량문제로 주기적으로 등락을 하는 특성으로 당시 한국 수출에서의 비중 약 18% 차지)과 기타 이유로 인한 경상수지 적자가 심해졌다고 합니다. 이를 IMF나 월드뱅크, 1편에서 소개한 신고전파 경제학자들이 주장하듯 '한국경제의 구조적 취약성'으로 설명하고 과장해서는 결코 안된다는 것입니다. 이어진 기아차와 한보건설의 위기는 '단기외채'가 불어나 있던 한국경제, 특히 한국기업들에 대한 해외투자자들의 신뢰도 저하를 또한 가져왔는데요, 상황이 자꾸만 꼬이고 있던 이유는 앞서 언급한 김병국/임혁백의 논의와 유사합니다. 1993년 김영삼 정부의 집권과 더불어 가속화된 금융자유화의 직접적인 결과로 단기외채는 늘어났습니다.(3편 말미 참조), 당시 상황을 요약하면 '자유주의적인 금융산업 진입 허가정책, 느슨한 규제, 대외차입 자유화가 조합돼, 단기외채는 급속히 늘었다는 거죠. 이런 다양한 요소들이 맞물리는 상황에서 그리고 그들은 IMF 위기는 '발전국가의 섣부른 해체 이후, 다른 경제체제/발전전략으로의 이행실패'가 원인이었다는 결론을 내립니다. 2. 한국의 착한아이 컴플렉스와 그리스 비웃기 애초에 이 연재를 시작하게 된 계기는 그리스의 디폴트 선언을 비웃는 한국 주류언론의 행태와 국민정서를 보면서 '그럴 수도 있는 데 왜 저렇게 조롱할까'라는 의문이었습니다. 실제 말레이시아는 IMF 구제금융 프로그램에서 거의 '배째는 전략'으로 나름 위기를 탈출하기도 했습니다. 하지만 많은 분들이 지적하셨듯 한국이라는 나라가 그리스나 말레이시아처럼 쉽게 배를 쨀 수 있는 나라가 아닌건 맞습니다. 말레이시아는 천연자원이라도 많고, 그리스는 세계 최고의 관광자원이라도 갖고 있으니까요. 수출주도경제의 한국이 IMF한테 '알아서 할테니 꺼져라. 해외자본들에게 빌린 돈은 못갚을 수 있다."고 말하진 못했을 겁니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 협상은 너무나 굴욕적이었고, IMF가 스스로 1년여 뒤 프로그램 내용을 수정해야할 정도로 문제가 많은 정책들이 급격히 추진됐습니다. IMF '조기 졸업'했다고 '역시 위기에 강한 대한민국'이라고 국뽕을 섭취하기엔 그 피해와 폐단도 너무 컸지요. '미국의 범위' 안에서 착실한 반공국가 모범생으로 성장해온 대한민국의 '착한아이 컴플렉스', 외신기자에게 두유노우 갱냄스타일을 꼭 물어봐야 직성이 풀리는 여러 컴플렉스가 복합된 상황에서, 정부관료/언론 전반이 좀 더 치열하고 '한국에 덜 불리한 협상'을 만들어내는 걸 막는데에 일조를 하지 않았나 싶습니다. 또한 얼마전 누군가가 올린 글에서처럼, 당시 '아무리 그래도 정권은 뺏기기 싫었던' 당시 여당(신한국당-한나라당)의 김대중 후보 IMF 재협상론 비판 등도 영향을 끼쳤을 겁니다. '나라가 망했다'는 프레임은 이미 망한 나라를 경험해봤던 국민들에게는 정말 세게 다가왔을 것이고, 동족상잔의 난리를 겪어봤던 국민들에게 '6.25 이후 최대의 국난'이라는 말은 훨씬 더 절절하고 크게 다가왔을 것이기 때문입니다. 하지만 우리는 여전히 IMF 위기와 구조개혁 프로그램이 만들어줬을 수 있는 거의 유일한 장점을 제대로 취하지 못했습니다. 재벌의 지배구조 개선이나 자유시장원리, 공정한 시장경제룰의 확립 등입니다. 오히려 위기를 빨리 벗어나야 한다는 압박감은, 단임제하 소수정권이었던 김대중 정부로 하여금 다시 '친재벌'적 정책을 추진하게 만들었습니다. 벤처육성으로 위기를 돌파하려 했지만 잘 안되자 대충 정리된 재벌들을 모아 다시 지원에 나섰고, 이는 노무현 정부에 들어서도 더 심해지면 심해졌지 바뀌지 않습니다. 한국의 착한아이 컴플렉스와 특유의 조급증. 어쩔 수 없이 우리가 지금 발딛고 서있는 2015년의 대한민국 경제구조와 재벌시스템을 만들어 낸 주요 요소라는 것입니다. 위기는 반드시 기회가 됩니다. 우리는 IMF위기를 그다지 좋은 기회로 바꿔내진 못했습니다. 위기는 앞으로 주기적으로 반복될 것이고 그 중에는 국제정치경제적으로 굉장히 큰 위기가 있을 수도 있습니다. 그리스를 보면서 그들을 조롱하고 비웃는 행태를 벗어나, IMF 위기와 극복과정으로부터 우리가 뭘 배워야하는지를 다시 점검하는 게 훨씬 더 중요해 보입니다. 이상 연재를 마칩니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 난커피가더좋아님의 최근 게시물
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9940 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
9940 class='vcm '>
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9940'> kpark
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15/07/22 13:28
9940>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
좋은 글 감사합니다. 잘 읽었습니다.
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Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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