Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 278
홍차넷
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 15/07/16 21:03:35 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 난커피가더좋아 |
| Subject | 그리스 위기 즈음에 돌아보는 한국의 IMF(3편) |
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이제 3편입니다. 이 연재도 거의 끝나갑니다. 그리스 위기 즈음에 돌아보는 한국의 IMF 위기(부제:한국의 착한아이 컴플렉스) 3편 지난번 글에서는 IMF의 삽질과 위기원인에 대한 다른 분석의 등장을 살펴봤습니다. 그렇다면 그렇게 다른 분석이 나오게 된 배경이 뭔지를 알아봐야할 거 같습니다. 그리고 다시 최종편이 될 4편에서는 신장섭/장하준/김병국 등의 분석에 대한 소개로 돌아오겠습니다. 1편 https://new.redtea.kr/pb/pb.php?id=free&no=559 2편 https://new.redtea.kr/pb/pb.php?id=free&no=581 1. 신자유주의로 무장한 '신진관료'와 재별개혁 얼핏 들으면 1990년대 중후반에 벌어졌을법한 일이지만, 이는 1980년대 초 전두환 정권시기에 생긴 일입니다. 이 역시 긴 스토리지만 짧게 요약하면, 70년대부터 박정희 정권은 신성장 동력으로 중화학공업 집중육성을 시작합니다. 재벌들은 정부를 믿고(?) 다시 한 번 뛰어듭니다. 물론 선별작업이 정권에 의해 이뤄지긴 하지요. 하지만 항상 '자본부족'에 시달리던 한국의 경제상황에서 이는 나중에 결과적으로는 좋은 성과도 나왔습니다만, 70년대 오일쇼크가 이어지고 전 세계적인 불황이 오면서 큰 위기에 봉착합니다. 1970년대 후반 한국 경제 상황은 매우 어려워집니다. 민주국가에서 헌법을 뒤엎고 등장한 군사정권 혹은 권위주의 정부는 두 가지 위기 중 하나를 필연적으로 겪게 됩니다. 하나는 '실패의 위기'로, 보통 권위주의 정부가 '경제성장'을 자신의 명분으로 내걸었을때 이것이 실패하면 찾아오는 위기입니다. 1970년대 긴급조치가 이어지며 '연성 권위주의'에서 '강성 권위주의로' 박정희 정권의 성격이 변하는 건 바로 이 '실패'와 관련이 깊습니다. 다른 하나는 '성공의 위기'로 권위주의 정권이 경제성장에 크게 성공한 경우입니다. 그러면 자신들이 내세운 목표를 성공시켰기 때문에 '퇴장하라'는 요구가 자연스럽게 나오게 되는데요, 전두환 정권이 비교적 빨리 7년만에 내려간 건 이것과 관련이 있다고 보는 학자들이 꽤 됩니다. 어쨌든, 이런 상황에서 박정희 정권 보다 더 명분없는 쿠데타를 통해 집권한 신군부 세력은 당시 한국 경제 위기 타파를 위해 '신진 세력'을 등용하게 되는데 그게 바로 '경제 관료 역사상 가장 똑똑한 사람이었다'는 세간의 평가를 받는 고 김재익씨 입니다. 아웅산 테러에서 목숨을 잃게 되는 분입니다. 어쨌든 김재익을 중심으로 한 신진세력은 당시 영미권 최대 화두이자 경제 재부흥 정책이었던 '신자유주의 개혁'을 해결책으로 들고 나옵니다. 당연히 관치금융을 중심으로 다소 기형적인 지배구조를 갖고 있던 재벌을 개혁하는 과제가 떠오릅니다. 문정인 연세대 정외과 교수에 따르면, 신진관료의 주도로 국가 주도 경제관리 및 성장정책에서 안정, 자율, 개방이라는 화두를 중심으로 경제정책은 바뀌고, 긴축재정, 금융자유화, 변동환율과 변동금리, 수입 자유화의 기조를 유지합니다. 기존 경제정책의 병폐들로 인해 즉 방만경영, 중복투자, 규모의 불경제, 인플레이션, 재벌에 과도한 집중, 중소기업의 불만, 대외 무역수지 불균형, 물가상승, 재정적자를 해결하기 위한 개혁이 요구되고 있었고, 경제는 잘 모르지만 이걸 성공해야 본인이 집권을 유지할 수 있다고 느낀 전두환씨는 이 새로운 이념을 가진 관료들에게 상당한 자율권을 줍니다. 앞서 언급했듯, 70년대에 성장한 중화학공업의 규모는 내수만으로는 한계가 있었고, 따라서 세계시장의 안정적인 확보가 필요했는데, 이와 동시에 또한 OECD 회원국들의 보호주의 발동, 중국과 신흥산업국의 추격 때문에 국내 시장개방을 해야 하는 압박을 받습니다. 세계경제의 흐름 역시 레이거노믹스와 대처리즘이 확대되면서 신자유주의적 개방경제가 국제적인 질서로 자리매김하는 중이었기때문에 이를 수용해야 하는 압력도 존재했습니다. 관료들의 입장에서 재벌의 과도한 경제적 집중은 시장경제질서에서 경쟁이 작동하기 어려운 독과점의 형태였고, 정부의 과도한 재정 지출과 비효율적인 규모의 불경제구조와 결부되어서 중요한 개혁의 대상이었습니다. 따라서 재벌 구조조정이 이루어졌고 부실자산의 매각과 분할이 진행됩니다. 1980년 1월 5일 전경련은 재미있는 기자회견을 엽니다. "재벌을 정권교체기의 희생양으로 삼는 것은 바람직하지 못하다"는 내용이었으니 그 위기감은 짐작할만 합니다. 그런데 재미있는 일이 벌어집니다. 그 구조조정 과정에서 재벌들은 더욱 자신들의 주력산업에 집중할 수 있게 됐고, 주력산업에 대한 장악력을 더욱 확보할 수 있었습니다. 결과적으로 구조조정은 재벌을 해체하거나 축소시키기 보다는 세계시장에서 경쟁력을 제고하기 위한 과정이 됐고, 이에 따라 경제 지표가 좋아지니 전두환 정권 역시 더 이상 처음 생각했던 것 처럼 굳이 재벌개혁의 칼날을 휘두를 필요는 없겠다는 생각을 하게됩니다. 더군다나 통치자금을 어마어마하게 상납해주는 재벌과 굳이 더 척을 질 필요도 없었지요. 김재익씨의 죽음을 기점으로 정부관료도 기존의 '국가-재벌 파트너십'에 따른 성장 정책을 추구하는 사공일, 김만제 류의 관료로 교체됩니다. 그런데 초기에 강력하게 세팅해 둔 금융시장 자유화 조치는 재벌들에게 새로운 길을 열어줍니다. 재벌이 비은행 금융기관을 사금고화 하면서 오히려 자율성이 강화돼 버린 겁니다. 재벌의 힘은 당연히 더 커지고, 굳이 관치금융에 의지하지 않아도 여러 방법으로 자본조달을 할 방법이 생겨 버립니다. 그 결과 1989년 8월 기준 상위 30개의 재벌이 44조원의 신용을 은행과 비은행 금융기관에서 확보할 수 있었고, 이는 한국 1988년 GDP의 39.9퍼센트에 이르는 수준이 됩니다. 대기업의 산업장악력은 지표상의 변화 속에서도 확인할 수 있는데, 제조업 부문에서 대기업집단 지배력의 추이를 보면 30대 대기업의 출하액 비중이 1977년 34.1%에서 1994년 39.6%로 유지하고 있고, 5대 기업의 집중도는 획기적으로 올라서 1977년 15.7%에서 1994년 24.6%로 상승합니다. 2. 김영삼 정부, 다시 '세계화'를 화두로 내걸다 집권기반이 취약했던 노태우 정부는 처음에는 굉장히 개혁적인 정책을 추구합니다. 금융실명제도 노태우 시절 먼저 추진됐을 정도니까요. 토지공개념 등 김대중 정부가 했으면 '빨갱이'라고 욕먹었을 아이디어도 튀어 나옵니다. 하지만 하필 그때 또 여러가지 경제지표는 악화되고 있었고, 노태우 정부 역시 3당합당을 통해 '안정성'을 확보하고 기존의 정책으로 상당부분 회귀합니다. 그러다 등장한 김영삼 정부. 집권초기 90%에 이르는 지지율을 기반으로 다양한 개혁정책을 추진하는데, 그 중 하나가 바로 재벌개혁입니다.그런데....문제가 생깁니다. 1993년, 재벌의 파업 즉 투자파업의 형태로 저항이 일어나고 경기는 급격하게 위축됩니다. 노무현 대통령이 얘기했던 '권력은 시장으로 넘어갔다'는 말은 이미 이때 부터 적용이 되고 있었던 것 같습니다. 역시나 열받은 다혈질 김영삼 대통령은 겉으로는 어쨌든 재벌개혁의 고삐를 풀어버리지만, 은행의 재벌대출을 규제하면서 재벌을 어떻게든 압박하고자 합니다. 아무리 자체적인 조달 수단을 확보했다고 해도 그래도 대한민국은 관치 금융의 힘이 셌습니다. 그런데....마침 '세계화' 화두 속에서 추진하던 금융시장 개방을 1994년부터 시행하게 되면서 재벌은 숨통이 트입니다. '한국이라는 고도성장 국가'의 신용을 무기로 단기외채를 끌어다가 역시나 신나게 몸집을 불려나가는 겁니다. 그렇게 IMF 위기의 그림자는 한국경제에 드리워지고 있었습니다. (다음편에 계속) Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 난커피가더좋아님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/07/16 21:41
9476>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
관치금융의 상징은 지금은 \'우리은행\', 과거에는 \'조흥\'은행이였지요.
좀 될만하면 관료들의 압력에 의한 무리한 대출, 결국 부실로인한 정부의 구제금융으로....
IMF가 되면서 가장 놀라웠던 것은 일반인들은 잘 모르는 \'나라종금\'과 같은 종금사들이 은행급의 규모였다는 것이였지요.
최근에도 제 2금융권들이 덩치를 키워서 은행을 넘보다가 \'토마토\'같은 곳은 \'국유화\'되어 버렸지요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
좀 될만하면 관료들의 압력에 의한 무리한 대출, 결국 부실로인한 정부의 구제금융으로....
IMF가 되면서 가장 놀라웠던 것은 일반인들은 잘 모르는 \'나라종금\'과 같은 종금사들이 은행급의 규모였다는 것이였지요.
최근에도 제 2금융권들이 덩치를 키워서 은행을 넘보다가 \'토마토\'같은 곳은 \'국유화\'되어 버렸지요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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