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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 16/01/12 14:28:06 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 낭만토토로 |
| Subject | 한 경제학자의 극적인 변화 |
|
안녕하세요. 가끔 글 한 번씩 쓰는 낭만토토로입니다. (제가 즐겨가는 다른 사이트에도 같은 글을 올렸습니다..) 제가 자주 하는 말 중에 "거시 경제학은 믿음의 학문이다"가 있는데, 요 몇 년간 그 믿음이 극단적으로 바뀐 매우 유명한 경제학자가 있어서 소개하려고 합니다. 미국의 FRB (Federal Reserve of Board: 연방준비은행)은 여러 지역구로 나누어져 있는데, 그 중에 미네소타의 미니애폴리스라는 도시에 근거를 둔 지역구는 Minneapolis fed (이하 미네소타 페드로 통칭하겠습니다)가 관할합니다. 여러 지역의 준비은행 중 미네소타 페드는 학술적으로도 유명한데, 특히 근처에 있는 미네소타대학 (정확하게는 미네소타 대학 중 미니애폴리스 캠퍼스)의 경제학과는 흔히 불리는 대표적인 민물학파 (fresh water: 정부의 개입이 의미가 없다고 주장하는 학파) 거두들이 있는 곳이라서, 연준의 지원을 받되 연준의 행보나 정부 정책의 개입을 비판하는 대표적인 연구기관으로 유명하죠. 이 학파의 유명한 이론 중 하나가 실물경기변동이론 (real business cycles theory: RBC theory)입니다. 거칠게 요약하자면, 실물 경기는 화폐 부분과 상관없이 일어날 수 있어서 화폐정책은 의미가 없다고 하는 이론이죠. 이 미네소타 페드에 Narayan Kocherlakota 라는 유명한 미네소타 대학의 교수가 의장으로 몇 년 전에 임용되었습니다. 당연하게도, 미네소타 대학 교수이다 보니 화폐/정부 정책에 호의적인 분은 아니었죠. 그런데 이 분이 의장에 임명된 후 학문적 입장이 급격하게 바뀌는데, 정부 정책은 매우 중요하다!라고 주장하고 다니기 시작한 것이죠. 특히 유명한 사건이 이 미네소타 페드의 유명한 거시학자들 계약을 종료/혹은 해고하고 (이들은 정부/중앙은행의 정책에 부정적인 사람들입니다) 정반대되는 학문적인 입장을 가지는 사람들을 임용하기 시작한 것입니다. 학계에서는 매우 유명한 사건이었죠. 더불어 이 분이 최근에 의장 임기가 끝나고 다시 연구를 시작하면서 새로 낸 논문이 있는데 제목이 정말 흥미롭습니다: "Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models," 즉, 앞에서 소개한 RBC 이론이 굉장히 이론적으로 취약할 수 있다는 것을 증명한 (물론 증명이나 가정의 타당성은 제가 그렇게 깊이 본 게 아니라 말씀 못 드리겠네요) 논문입니다. 즉, 이 분은 단순히 학문적 입장이 바뀐게 아니라, 왠지 뼛속 깊이 자기가 있던 학교의 반대파가 된 듯한 느낌이네요. 특히 제가 이 논문의 도입 부분에서 인상 깊게 본 문구는 "However, their fragility means that purely real models are simply too incomplete to be useful in interpreting the world."입니다. 즉 RBC 모델은 정말 완성되지 못했다. (Prescott 이 들으면 기절할 소리를...)... 몇 년 전에, 미네소타 대학 (혹은 미네소타 페드)에서 유명한 거시경제학자들, Chari, Kehoe, McGrattan (2009, AEJ-Macro)이 쓴 논문의 제목이 "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis"였는데 정반대의 논의를, 같은 믿음을 가졌던 사람이 주장하네요. 이 정도의 급격한 학문적 입장 변화를 보이는 사람은 거시학계에서는 잘 없는데, Kocherlakota정도의 유명 인물이 이렇게까지.. 참으로 신기합니다. 매우 흥미롭게도, Kocherlakota 는 의장 임기가 끝난 후 RBC 모델의 중흥기와 함께한 로체스터 대학의 특임교수로 임명되었습니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 |
|
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Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
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28116 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
28116 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
28116'> NPP
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
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16/01/12 19:07
28116>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
In the long run, we are all dead.
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28116>
28116>
