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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
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티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 24/04/09 22:25:05 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | the hive |
| Subject | 선거일 직전 끄적이는 당별관련 뻘글 |
|
탐라에 가볍게 올리려다 뇌절해서 500자를 넘겨서 티타임에 남겨봅니다. 1.더민주+민주비례 예상 151석 이상 이보다 분위기가 더 좋긴 힘듭니다. 반윤표 결집은 더민주로 다 잘 몰렸고 그나마 남은 새미래도 문통이 열심히 꼬시는 중입니다. 2.국힘+국미래 예상 110석 아래 간단하게 말하면, 아예 지난 선거보다 결과가 더 잘 나올 수있는상황이 아니고. 결국 얼마나 빼앗기느냐인데, 이준석 담구겠다고 미래 팔아먹는 희대의 뻘짓을 한데다(경선시 같은지역구 낙선 패널티), 과정도 이준석이 부도덕해보이는 과정이 아니였다보니 결국 청년 계층을 대량으로 떨구는결과를 낳았죠. 무엇보다 도덕성을 내세우며 당선된 대통령과 당이 디올백을 포함해 온갖 부도덕한 행태를 보이는건 어처구니 없을 지경입니다. 그걸 모자라 언론 탄압과 권위주의적 태도 등 독재의 기운을 뿜뿜하고 있죠. 우리는 권위주의를 거부하며, 부당한 간섭과 통제를 받지 않을 때 보다 행복할 수 있다고 믿는다라고 신념에 적어놨던데, 그냥 웃음밖에 안나옵니다. ㅋㅋ 3.녹색정의당 예상 0석 자멸한 측면도 있지만,악재가 너무 많이 겹쳤습니다. 민주당 당대표는 하필 진보 확장성이 역대 가장 높은 이재명이고, 비례는 예전보다 경쟁자가 너무 많아졌습니다. 민중당은 기회를 잘 잡고 극적으로 부활하는 그림인데, 독자노선을 선택한 녹색정의당은 거대양당과 개혁신당에 동력 전체를 빼앗기며 16년만에 원외정당으로 밀려날 가능성이 높아보입니다. 이후 주도권은 민중당이 다시 잡을듯요. 4.새로운미래 예상 1~3석 김종민이 세종갑에서 양자대결이고 당선가능성이 높아서 녹색정의당보다는 상황이 낫지만, 이낙연은 생환이 불가능합니다. 문재인 없는 문재인팀이라 냉각기를 거쳐서 민주당과 합칠 가능성이 높습니다. 일부는 개혁신당이나 국힘으로 가구요. 5.개혁신당 예석 2~5석 청년남성층과 의료계의 충성도가 살아있는편이라 3,4번 당보다도 상황은 낫습니다. 이준석도 심상정과 이낙연보다는 훨씬 긍정적이고요. 뭐 그 긍정적이라는게 희망고문이긴 한데, 살아남으면 꽤 인상적인 승리가 될겁니다. 아무래도 이번정부 탄압대상 다섯손가락(이재명,조국,이준석)안에 무조건 드는 인물이다보니.. 그외 가장 큰 정치적 의의는 이번 선거에서 국힘으로 새어 갈 수 있는표를 완전히 틀어막은 세력이라는 점입니다. 윤석열 대선-8회지방선거까지는 청년표가 국힘으로 가는경우가 많았으나, 이젠 그걸 기대하기 어렵게되었고 이전의 선거구도로 회귀하게 만든 장본인들입니다. 6.자유통일당 예상 0~3석 삭제한 글에 언급했지만 대한제국 전폐제 이승만시대에나 그나마 어울리는 극단주의 정당입니다. 대한민국에 제정일치는 어울리지 않습니다. 전광훈의 극단성과 각종 추문,공천헌금 혐의는 덤입니다. 여담으로 국힘 2중대를 자처하다보니, 되려 국민의미래가 이 정당을 견제하는 판국입니다. 7.민중당 예상 3석 민주당과의 선거연대가 잭팟이 되면서 통진당 이후 다시 전성기를 맞이하기 직전입니다. 그놈의 종북성향만 좀 어찌 했으면 소원이 없겠습니다. 8.조국혁신당 예상 13~16석 이번 총선 최대의 선거돌풍을 일으키는 정당입니다. 기본적으로 민주당계 정당으로 분류됩니다만,후보 본인도 그렇고 윤석열 대통령에게 한방 먹이고 싶어하는사람들이 너무나 많다는걸 많은 조사기관에서 증명하고 있습니다. 윤석열을 무너트리면 그뒤는 뭘할지 궁금해지긴합니다. 번외 새진보연합 1~2석 역시 민주연대의 수혜자입니다. 오준호씨가 대구에서 출마합니다만, 25%만되도 성공으로 보입니다. 소나무당 0석 이번선거에서 이전의 허경영 아조씨 포지션입니다. 허경영아조씨 좀 이상한상태여도 선거나온다는건 안함정 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
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191832 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
191832 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
191832'> Cascade
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
24/04/09 22:47
191832>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
여조 1,2,3등 빼면 솔직히 아무도 봉쇄조항 못 넘길 것 같다는 게 제 생각입니다.
녹색정의는 일단 여조에서도 참패고, 새로운미래 역시 지역구 한 석으로 마무리... 개혁신당은 3% 유지중인데 2.9x%대로 걸릴 가능성이 있는 듯 합니다.
소나무는 말할 것도 없고, 자유통일당은 여조 과평가가 있는 듯 하고...
그래도 민주연합이 15석은 가져가지 않을까 했는데 여조 보니 10석 간당간당이더라구요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
녹색정의는 일단 여조에서도 참패고, 새로운미래 역시 지역구 한 석으로 마무리... 개혁신당은 3% 유지중인데 2.9x%대로 걸릴 가능성이 있는 듯 합니다.
소나무는 말할 것도 없고, 자유통일당은 여조 과평가가 있는 듯 하고...
그래도 민주연합이 15석은 가져가지 않을까 했는데 여조 보니 10석 간당간당이더라구요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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