Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 278
홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 23/01/21 12:30:16 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 다시갑시다 |
| File #1 | 17_23_epl_foward_trends.png (151.7 KB), Download : 6 |
| Subject | 손흥민 선수의 부진에 대하여 |
 손흥민 선수의 토트넘이 지난 경기 맨체스터 시티에게 2:0 리드를 놓치고 4:2로 대역전패를 당하면서 토트넘 자체의 위기설도 심각하게 돌고있지만, 동시에 한국팬들에게 가장 큰 관심사는 지난 시즌 EPL 득점왕인 손흥민 선수의 부진입니다. 실제로 올해 시즌이 반 가까이 진행된 와중에 단 한경기에서 3골을 몰아넣은 것 이외의 득점이 없을 정도로 심각한 득점력 난조를 보이고있는데, 손흥민 선수의 부진을 수치로 비교해보며 분석해보았습니다 위의 세 그래프는 FBREF라는 축구 통계 사이트에서의 자료를 기반으로 제가 추린 그래프입니다. 17/18 시즌부터 이번 22/23 시즌까지 "톱 공격수"를 임의로 선정하여, 손흥민 선수의 기록은 빨간색으로, 나머지 선수들은 회색으로 표현하였습니다. (톱 공격수는 900분 이상 뛴 시즌만 추려서 EPL에서 지난 5년간 총합 득점순위 30위 안에 드는 선수들로 추렸습니다). 선수들의 리스트를 보면 그래도 어디가서 "아 걔 공격수 좀 하지"하는 선수들입니다. 가장 이름값이 떨어지는 선수들이 글렌 머레이, 대니 잉스, 로드리구 같은 선수들이네요. 가장 위 그래프는 시즌 총 득점 비교입니다 첫 세시즌간 손흥민 선수는 리그내에서 수위권 공격수로 꼽힐만한 안정적인 모습입니다. 꾸준하게 두자릿수 득점을 기록하였죠. 그러다 재작년 2020/2021 시즌에 골수가 꽤 늘더니, 급기아 작년 2021/2022 시즌엔 22골로 리그 공동 득점왕을 찍었죠. 그리고서는 올해는 이미 상기한 대로 골이 터지질 않고있습니다 두번째 그래프는 시즌별 90분당 xG 수치의 비교입니다 xG는 AI님이 결정해주신 "슈팅의 확률"입니다. 무조건 골이 들어갈만한 슈팅은 1점을 받고, 아무도 넣지 못할 슈팅은 0점을 받죠. 당연히 확률이 높은 슈팅을 많이 때리는 선수의 xG가 높겠죠. 손흥민 선수는 이 비교에선 사실 그렇게 눈에띄는 선수는 아닙니다. 당연히 그래도 리그에서 잘난체 좀 하는 공격수들을 모아둔거라 여기서 하위권이여도 굉장한거지만, 득점왕을 한 지난 시즌에서도 이 선수들 중 중위권이였고, 평소에는 xG 수치는 이 그룹에서 하위권입니다. 극심한 부진의 올해의 xG도 사실 작년을 제외한 시즌들과 비교해보면 평소와 크게 다를게 없는 수치죠. 세번째 그래프는 실제로 넣은 골 - xG의 수치비교입니다 (90분당). xG의 확률은 사실 모든 프로선수들의 평균으로 계산하기에, 좋은 공격수들은 일반적으로 계산된 확률보다 높은 확률로 득점을 성공 시킵니다. 이 그래프가 바로 그 수치를 보여주는거고, 손흥민 선수는 거의 매년 이 부문에서 리그에서 몇손가락 안에 드는 돋보이는 활약을 보여주었습니다. 그러다가 올해 이 수치가 곤두박질 쳣죠. 어느 위치에서나 양발로 입이 쩍 벌어지는 손흥민 선수의 슈팅 감각이 드러나는 수치라고 보시면 됩니다. 두번째 그래프와 세번째 그래프를 비교하면 우린 손흥민 선수의 특징을 알수있습니다. 손흥민 선수는 비슷한 이름값의 공격수들과 비교했을때 좋은 찬스를 잘 잡는 선수가 아닙니다. 오히려 못잡는 편이죠. 이건 단순히 손흥민 선수 개인의 문제 뿐만 아니라, 좋은 찬스를 우선받는 케인과 함께 상대적 약팀인 토트넘에서 뛴다는 전술적 특징도 고려되어야하는 기록입니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 손흥민 선수가 월드클래스 공격수 논쟁에 이름을 올릴수있는 이유는 바로 남들에겐 평범한 슈팅 찬스를 원더골로 만들수있는 천부적인 슈팅 감각 덕분이였던거죠. 손흥민 선수는 언제나 주어진 자원을 상회하는 결과를 뽑아내는 진짜 알짜배기 오브 알짜배기 공격수였던거죠. 이번 시즌 손흥민 선수의 저조한 득점력을 언급할때 가장 많이 언급되는게 새로운 왼쪽 윙백인 페리시치와의 호흡입니다. 전임자들에 비해서 훨씬 볼을 잡고있는 위치와 기간이 공격적인 파트너로 인해서 손흥민 선수가 피해를 많이 본다는거죠. 개인적으로는 토트텀의 이 전술적 변화가 바로 두번째 그래프에서 손흥민 선수의 줄어든 올시즌 xG로 반영이 된다고 봅니다. 팀 전체가 "손흥민 득점해라"하고 좋은 찬수를 모두 몰아주었던 지난 시즌에 비해서 토트넘은 더 다양한 공격루트를 가져가려고했고, 그 과정에서 잡음과 함께 손흥민 선수가 꽤 희생된 부분이 분명히 있어보입니다. 그렇다고해도 기록상, 손흥민 선수는 토트넘 커리어 평균적인 시즌과 비슷한 퀄리티의 찬스들을 지속적으로 잡고있긴합니다. 다만 엎친데 덮친격으로 손흥민 선수는 이번 시즌 몸 상태가 정말 역대급으로 안좋아 보이는게 문제입니다. 몇없는 평범한 찬스를 비범한 슈팅으로 득점으로 연결하던 선수가, 컨디션 난조로 슈팅이 평범해지니까 그냥 평범한 활약을 펼치는 선수가 되어버린거죠. 이 부진을 해결하는 방법에는 수치적으로 두가지가 있을겁니다. 손흥민에게 좋은 찬스를 몰아주거나 (두번째 그래프를 끌어올린다), 손흥민의 슛감을 되살려주거나 (세번째 그래프를 끌어 올린다). 실제로는 두 방법이 혼용이 되면서 서로 선수환이 되기를 바랄겁니다. 팀의 주포인 케인의 올시즌 컨디션이 나쁘진 않아서 작년 같은 몰빵은 안되겠지만, 어느 정도 쉬운 찬스에서 패스를 한번 밀어준다던가, 이기고있는 경기에서 pk가 나오면 손흥민이 찬다던가하는 소소한 밀어주기가 있을테고. 그러다보면 결국엔 손흥민 선수의 자신감과 컨디션이 되돌아오면서 AI의 예상을 상회하는 득점력을 보여주는 손흥민 선수가 돌아오긴 할겁니다. 보통은 못할대 평균회귀한다고 하지만, 사실 원래 잘하는 선수가 부진을 탈출할때도 평균회귀를 하는거니까요. 단지 그 시점까지 토트넘의 팀 사정이 버텨줄수있을지가 유일한 변수이겠지만, 그건 바다건너 대륙건너 티비로 경기보는 일게 팬이 어찌할수는 없는 일이니, 그저 매번 경기 보면서 응원하고, 경기 사이 사이 손흥민 선수가 좀 푹 쉴수있기만을 바라고있습니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 4 이 게시판에 등록된 다시갑시다님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
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Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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181258 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
181258 class='vcm '>
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181258'> Ye
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23/01/21 14:59
181258>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
이번 시즌은 가뜩이나 폼 별로인 와중에 큰 부상 및 출장 강행으로 선수 스스로는 어떻게 생각할지 몰라도 정말 슈팅이 안좋아졌습니다. 저도 이번 시즌은 큰 기대 없이 푹 쉬고 안 다치고 뛰면 좋겠어요.
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