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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 22/12/19 11:28:21 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | realwealth |
| Subject | 인플레이션이 뭘까요? |
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이전 글 금리 https://new.redtea.kr/free/13349 지난 번 ‘금리’에 대한 간단한 글에 제 생각보다 관심을 많이 주셔서(추천 5개), 하나 더 써봅니다. 금리와 관계가 있기도 하고, 요새 hot 하기도 한 인플레이션에 대해 역시 궁금하신 분들이 있을까 해서 간단하게 적어봅니다. inflate 은 (공기나 가스로) 부풀린다는 뜻입니다. 물가가 부풀어 오른다고 해석할 수 있을 것 같습니다. 그런데 잠깐 보면, 물가는 뭘까요? 物價(물가)는 물건의 가격입니다. 너무 쉽죠? 그러나 잠깐 생각해보면, 물건은 수천, 수만, 수십만 가지가 넘을 텐데, 물가를 어떻게 측정할까요? 우리가 흔히 말하는 물가는 index=지수를 말합니다. 어떤 대표값을 만들어서 그 대표값으로 동향을 살피게 됩니다. 소비자 물가지수(Consumer Price Index, CPI), 생산자 물가지수(Producer Price Index, PPI)가 대표적입니다. 소비자가 사용하는 대표적인 물건들을 정해서 그 가격들을 가지고, 평균 등을 통해 대표값을 산출하고, 얼마나 올라나가? 내려가나?를 지켜봅니다. 다시 적어보면, 인플레이션은 물건들의 평균 가격이 지속적으로 부풀어 오르는 현상입니다. 그렇다면 물가는 왜 오를까요? 지난 번 금리와 마찬가지로 가격은 수요와 공급에 의해 결정됩니다. 사려는 사람이 파는 사람보다 많으면 오르는 거죠. 이번 인플레이션은, 코로나 위기를 극복하기 위해 미국을 비롯한 세계 각국에서 돈을 많이 풀었고, 그 늘어난 돈을 사람들이 쓰려고 하니 수요가 증가하고, 물건 가격이 점점 더 오르게 되었다고 볼 수 있습니다. 거기에 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 석유와 가스(공급)가 부족해지니, 수요와 공급 양쪽에서 물가를 올리게 된거죠. 그렇다면 물가가 오르면 문제인가요? 문제가 되지 않기도 하고, 문제가 되기도 합니다. 먼저 예상된 정도의 미미한 물가 상승은 큰 문제가 되지 않습니다. 예상을 기준으로 균형이 큰 무리 없이 이루어지기 때문이죠. 생각해보면, 인플레이션율 2~3% 정도는 우리 이미 받아 들이고, 그 전제로 우리는 살아가죠. 하지만, 예상치 못한 큰 폭의 인플레이션은 문제가 됩니다. 어떤 문제가 될까요? 일단, 물건의 가치가 올라가는 인플레이션이 발생한다는 의미는, 물건과 교환해야 하는 돈의 가치가 내려간다는 것도 동일한 의미입니다. 그냥 두면, 우리가 받는 월급으로 살 수 있는 물건이 적어지고, 살림이 어려워지죠. 물론 월급을 올리면 됩니다. 하지만, 시점이 물건가격 오르는 것보다 느리게 올라가는게 보통이죠. 그리고 대기업은 상대적으로 임금 인상의 반영이 더 잘되고, 중소기업은 덜되는 경우가 많은 것 같습니다. 소득격차가 심화되는 원인이 됩니다. 그리고, 돈의 가치가 실물이 가치에 비해 낮아지는 것이기 때문에, 돈을 빌린 사람에게 유리하고, 돈을 빌려준 사람에게는 불리합니다. 예를 들면, 돈을 빌려서 금을 산다면, 금 가격은 인플레이션 영향으로 오르지만, 상대적으로 돈의 가치는 떨어지기 때문에 불리한거죠. 단, 이자율이 동일하다는 전제가 있어야 합니다. 특히 중앙은행에서 인플레이션 억제를 위해 금리를 올리고 있는 상황이라면 잘 살펴봐야 합니다. 특정 변수의 영향을 살펴 보기 위해서, 경제학에서 자주 사용하는 '다른 조건이 변함없다면 (ceteris paribus)' 그렇다는 거죠. 그 외에도 무역수지, 자본수지, 이자율 등등에 예상치 못한 영향을 끼치고, 특정 경제주체(정부, 가계, 기업)에게 고통이 되기도 하죠. 예상하지 못한 정도로 인플레이션이 발생하면, 경제 균형이 깨집니다. 깨진 균형은 그 와중에 손해를 보는 사람도 이익을 보는 사람도 있지만, 혼란을 의미하죠. 그리고 정부는 혼란을 피하기 위해 인플레이션 안정화를 최대 목적으로 하는 중앙은행을 운영합니다. 중앙은행의 가장 큰 존재의의는 물가안정입니다. 지금 금리를 올리는 가장 큰 이유는 인플레이션을 잡기 위해서죠. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3
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180485 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
180485 class='vcm '>
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
180485'> 레디미르
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
22/12/19 12:44
180485>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
전 인플레이션과 소비자 물가 상승을 독립적으로 접근하는게 맞다고 봅니다. 통화 팽창, 수축에 따른 인플레이션과, 수요 공급의 변화에 따른 소비자 물가의 변화는 각각 양의 피드백을 가지느냐 음의 피드백을 가지느냐는 측면에서 차이를 보인다고 생각하고요. 비전공자가 런급하기엔 매우 극단적인 주장이지만, 전 세계 중앙은행과 정책 담당자들의 가장 큰 무기가 심리와 신뢰도이기 때문에 중앙은행들은 올해의 가격상승이 비통화적인 원인임에도 통화 정책을 통해 문제를 해결하려 시도할 수밖에 없다고 봅니다. 그 과정에서 공급 쇼크에 반응하는 수요 감소 대신, 공급 쇼크를 씹어 먹는 수요 쇼크가 오지 않을까 우려되고요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
180485>
180485>
