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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | MANAGYST |
| Subject | Has the world reached its credit limit? |
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citi 자료를 요약한 내용입니다. 원문 - http://managyst.com/220499781282 Intro 1. 아름다운 신용(How beautiful credit) 신용이 좋은 이유는 뭘까요? 돈이 할 수 있는 건 모두 다 할 수 있기 때문입니다. 핸드폰도 살 수 있고, 차도 살 수 있고, 투자도 할 수 있죠. (물론 신용이 있다는 가정하에) 그리고 이러한 신용(서로 믿는다는 것)을 통해서 인류는 엄청난 속도로 발전했습니다. 신용의 부작용이 물론 있지만, 이 사실 마저 부정할 수 없습니다. Credit이 우리에게 얼마나 많은 혜택을 주었는지 말입니다. 2. 누구의 희생도 필요없어(Not Zero-sum game) Zero-sum game은 누군가 이익을 보면, 누군가는 손해를 보는 것을 말합니다. 그런데 신용(Credit)은 제로썸게임이 아닙니다. Credit이 증가하는 동안에는 누구의 희생도 필요 없이 모두가 해피합니다(초록색). 더 많은 지불능력으로 더 많이 빌리고, 더 많이 쓰고, 자산가격은 더 올라갑니다. 그런데, 반대의 경우에는 누구도 예외없이 힘들어집니다(빨간색) 자산가격은 지불능력과 함게 줄어들고, 더이상 돈을 빌릴수가 없어서 소비도 줄어듭니다. 3. But... 내가 가진 돈이 마이너스?가 되는 것을 상상해보신적 있나요? 젊은 분들은 상상하기 어려울 텐데.. 내가 취직이 안되서 혹은 월급이 적어서 돈이 없을 수는 있는데, 내 돈이 마이너스다? 쉽게 상상이 안됩니다. 그러나!!! Credit은 할 수 있습니다. 아직 오직 Credit만이 할 수 있습니다. 바로 당신의 자본(Equity)를 마이너스로 만드는 것 말입니다. 대차대조표불황에 말입니다. (아래 글 참고) http://blog.naver.com/ronalee/220300155446 네.. Credit은 그렇게 정말 좋은 것이지만, 위험한 것이기도 합니다. Ex. 얼마전에 제 친구중 가장 성공한 친구를 만난적이 있습니다. 이 친구가 저에게 물어보더군요. "아~ 글쎄 우리나라 금리가 쉽게 올라가긴 어렵지만, 부채가 많다면, 좀 줄이는 것도 좋을거 같아" "아~ 그래? 그럼 싹 갚아버릴까?" 우쒸.. 왜 물어본거야!! 이 친구 이야기를 한 이유는 부자들은 부채의 위험성을 잘 알고 잘 대응하고 있고, 무엇보다 중요한 것은 대응할 수 있는 능/력이 있다는 것을 이야기하기 위해서입니다. 문제는 반대의 경우입니다. 반대의 경우? 그건 나중에 이야기하는 걸로... Now 1. 그 많은 신용은 어디에? Where is Credit? 연준이 돈을 직접 찍어내기도 했지만, 실제로 금융위기 이후 신용은 더욱 크게 확대되었습니다. 중앙은행은 4조달러(=4000조원 vs. 우리나라 시총 약 1400조원)를 풀었는데, S&P의 가치는 10조달러(=1.1경) 이상 증가했구요. 채권과 주식을 통해서 늘어난 Credit은 무려 $35tr 랍니다. 머리가 핑핑 도네요. 집값을 보여주는 지표를 통해서도 확인이 되는데, 미국은 2.5배, 브라질은 5배. 중국은 3.3배(앗! 아니 33배이군요) 올랐습니다. 2. 왜 신흥국이 위기인가? DM vs. EM 사실 이 보고서를 소개한 가장 큰 이유는 신흥국과 선진국에서 만들어진 Credit의 성격이 다르다는 점을 정확한 지적 때문입니다. 선진국은 시장에서 만들어진 신용일 뿐이어서 실수요자(기업)들의 수요가 별로 없었습니당. 그러니, 투자로 이어지지도 않았죠.
반면, 신흥국에서는 보다 돈의 성격이 강해서 은행을 통해서 대출이 많이 나갔고, 자연스럽게 투자로도 많이 이어졌습니다. 그래서 선진국보다 신흥국의 Credit이 보다 Leverage가 높다고 하겠습니다. 그리고 선진국보다 신흥국이 호환마마보다 무섭다는 "과잉공급"의 위협에 더 크게 노출되어 있다고도 하겠습니다. http://managyst.com/220357970739
Next 1. 현금을 들고 있는 것은 얼마나 고통스러운 일인가? 현금을 들고 있는다는 것은 정말 고통스러운 일입니다. 일반인에게도 그렇지만, 기관투자자들에게는 더욱 그렇습니다. 왜냐하면, 돈 맡긴 사람이 "야~ 너 뭐하는 거야? 현금 들고 있으려면 내놔~!" 하기 때문이죠. 그런데, 많은 사람들이 펀드보다는 MMF나 예금등 현금화를 하기 시작했습니다. 이 어려운 "현금 들고 있기"를 누군가는 이미 2010년부터 꾸준히 해오고 있다는 거네요. 2. 결론 이 보고서의 결론 부분입니다. Credit은 스스로 사라지지 않는다. 계속 증가할 뿐이다. 하지만, 뭔가 잘못된 방향으로 가고 있다.(빨간색 신용은 늘어나고 있찌만, 파란색 성장은 정체) 그리고 심지어 Credit이 주는 Effect 역시 줄어들고 있다. 엄중한 경고의 메세지네요. 문제는 이러한 사실을 알고 있더라도 뭔가 결론을 내리기는 참 어렵다는 겁니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 이 게시판에 등록된 MANAGYST님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
17031 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
17031 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
17031'> Toby
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/10/05 11:12
17031>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
네이버 블로그 이미지는 외부 링크 펌이 막혀있어서 이미지가 엑박으로 보입니다.
imgur 등을 사용해서 이미지만 수정해주시면 좋을 것 같습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
imgur 등을 사용해서 이미지만 수정해주시면 좋을 것 같습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
17031>
17031>
