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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 토끼모자를쓴펭귄 |
| File #1 | 이미지_1.png (679.6 KB), Download : 21 |
| Subject | 혼돈의 부동산 시장, 2021년 투자대처법 (김경민 교수) |
 슈카의 THE MASTER ㅣ 혼돈의 부동산 시장, 2021년 투자대처법 (김경민 교수) 20.12.17. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWoYojMJhjw 1. 2008년 후반부터 2018년 후반까지 10년간 서울 지역내총생산이 56% 올랐다. 성장에 맞춰 집값도 오르는 게 맞는데, 이명박 정부의 보금자리주택 정책이 수요와 공급을 다 죽였다. 그래서 2014년까지 집값이 하락하다가 다시 반등한 것이다. 2. 집값을 좌우하는 요소는 인플레이션과 소득 수준인데, 2019년 초까지의 부동산값 상승은 용인해야 할 가격이다. 하지만 2019년 이후 지금까지의 폭등은 비정상적이다. 2019년 이후 20개월 간 부동산값이 30% 올랐다는 건 경제 성장과 무관한, 설명 불가능한 폭등이다. 최근의 폭등은 시장가격이 왜곡되어 있다고 본다. 3. 부동산은 팔고 싶을 때 못 파는 위험자산이다. 그래서 빚 내서 영혼까지 끌어모아서 집 사려는 것은 매우 위험하다. 하지만 정부 정책이 신뢰를 잃어서 생겨나는 현상이라 그 심리가 이해는 간다. 어느 시점에 얼마만큼의 집 공급이 있을지 플랜이 명확해야 하는데 그런 믿음을 주지 못했다. 잇따른 담보 대출과 신용 대출을 낮추어버리니까 집을 영영 못 사는 거 아닌가 하는 의구심을 들게 했다. 4. 부동산 정책의 목적은 중산층과 서민이 살 수 있는 안정적인 주거 환경을 만드는 것이고 집값을 잡는다는 건 그것을 위한 수단일 뿐이다. 아파트 대출과 공급 단절이 가격의 상승을 부르고 패닉 바잉을 부르는 것이다. 집값을 잡으려는 생각은 위험하고 주거복지를 어떻게 강화할거냐라는 이야기를 해야 한다. 서민과 중산층을 위한 금융 정책, 집 공급 정책이 나와야 한다. 노무현 정부는 위례 신도시, 이명박 정부는 보금자리 주택 정책이 있어서 부동산 가격을 겨우 안정시킨 건데 현 정부는 그런 부동산 리더십이 없다. 가격 규제만이 아닌 주거, 접근가능성에 맞춘 정책이 필요하다. 5. 서울에 국공유지가 굉장히 많은데 거기에 일부는 개발해서 공급해야 한다고 생각한다. 용산공원을 일부 개발해도 녹지 총량을 유지 가능하다. 대체 부지가 거기밖에 별로 없는데 땅을 파서 시장에 안정 시그널을 줄 필요가 있다. 6. 과거에는 강남에도 여러 계층이 어울려 살았는데 지금은 그런 소셜 믹스가 사라졌다. 7. 우리나라는 세입자 보호가 굉장히 약한 나라라서 임대차 3법이 나오는 게 맞다. 하지만 지금 타이밍에는 좋지 못했고, 매매가와 전세가가 안정적일 때 도입했어야 했다. 8. 호텔을 주택으로 개조하는 건 해외에 많은 일이다. 호텔은 구조가 주거로 바꾸기 좋다. 그런데 전세난 부족은 중형 아파트를 선호하는 시장의 분위기를 말해주는 건데, 호텔 개조나 매입 임대 공급은 아파트 수요와 층위가 맞지 않다. 아파트를 구하는 사람에게 빌라를 제공하면 거기에 들어가겠는가? 9. 부동산은 하방경직성이 굉장히 커서 손해를 보면서 팔려고 하지는 않는다. 중저가 아파트 시장 가격도 변동성이 크게 요동치는 지금 이때에는 매도자도 팔지 말고 매수자도 사지 않는, 잠시 쉬어가는 전략을 선택하는 것이 좋다. 10. 일본 버블과 우리나라의 지금 부동산을 같은 선상에서 놓으면 안된다. 당시 일본 버블은 일왕성 주변 땅을 팔아 캘리포니아 땅을 살수 있었고 또 자기 돈이 없이도 집을 살 수가 있었다. 그러나 지금 우리나라는 LTV, DTI 규제가 안정장치로 있기 때문에 일본처럼 충격적으로 급폭락할 일은 없을 것이다. 11. 본인이 안정적인 직업이 있고 이자를 쭉 낼 수 있는 여건이 된다, 혹은 집값 떨어져도 10년 버틸수 있으면 본인 선택으로 매수해도 좋다. 집값이 떨어져도 10년 싸이클이 지나면 올라갈 것이다. 하지만 지금은 집값이 비정상적으로 높아 집 매수하기 위험한 시기라서 비추천한다. 12. 부동산 시장은 주식 시장과 다르게 숨은 정보가 많다. 정보의 비대칭성이 심한 영역이다. 부동산 투자를 할때도 주식할때처럼 공부가 필수이다. 우선 자기의 금융 상황 안에서 앞으로 어떤 주택에서 살건지 플랜을 세워야 한다. 내가 이사가려는 집과 비슷한 조건에 있는 아파트 단지들을 5개 정도의 가격 트렌드가 어떻게 되는지를 살펴보고 어떤 집이 저평가되어있는지 봐야 한다. 부동산도 주식처럼 투자 포트폴리오를 세워야 한다. 포트폴리오에는 시장에 대한 분석과 개별 아파트에 대한 분석이 있어야 한다. 13. 부동산 투자의 3가지 요건은 Location위치, Timing매매시점, Finance레버리지효과이다. 자기의 소득이 명확하고 대단한 위험성이 존재하지 않는다고 할때 레버리지효과를 일으키는 것도 좋다. 14. 부동산은 사는living 공간이기도 하지만 역시 또한 사는buying 공간이기도 하다. 부동산은 단일 재화로서 가장 큰 재화로서 마땅히 투자 포트폴리오에 넣어야 한다. 마땅히 투자의 대상으로서 여겨야 한다. 안정적인 삶을 위해 주택 구매는 필수이다. 집을 소유하지 않으면 집값이 한번 튈때 못 쫓아간다. 하버드 부동산학과 나온 교수님 말씀이라고 하셔서 인상깊게 본 유튜브인데요. 여기에 대해서 동의하시는 점이 있는지 공유하고자 글자로 영상 내용을 정리해보았습니다. 경제 관련 유튜버들이 다 자기 개인적으로 갖고 있는 생각이 달라서 정답은 없겠지만요. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2
이 게시판에 등록된 토끼모자를쓴펭귄님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
152596 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
152596 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
152596'> 토끼모자를쓴펭귄
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/01/09 20:20
152596>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
영상 시점으로부터 현재 시점은 1달 정도 지났지만 큰 차이는 없겠..죠?
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
152596>
152596>
