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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 20/07/29 15:58:45 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 존보글 |
| Subject | 도대체 금(원자재)은 왜 이렇게 오를까 |
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*주의사항 : 원자재 투자는 정말 주의해야 할 것들이 많습니다. 물렸을 때 정말 답이 안나오는 자산군 중 하나가 원자재입니다. 철저하게 헷징의 수단으로만 활용하시는 것을 추천드립니다. 그리고 이 글은 저만의 논리일 뿐이지, 시장가격은 절대로 이렇게 명쾌한 논리대로 돌아가지 않습니다. 제가 전문가가 아니니까 역으로 이런 글을 쓸 수 있다고 생각하십시오. 제 논리가 깨지면 저는 크게 털릴 수 있습니다. 그나마 며칠 운좋게 올라서 다행이죠. 곳곳에서 금이 사상 최고가라고 난리입니다. 네, 실제로 사상 최고가이고, 이 글을 쓰는 중에도 어제보다오른 금액에 거래중입니다. 거의 오늘의 고점이 내일의 저점인 수준이죠. 좀더 원자재 붐을 실감하고 싶으시면 은을 보시면 됩니다. 거의 정신이 나간 수준이죠. 단 8거래일만에 20% 이상이 올랐습니다. 개별주도 이렇게 오르는 거 찾기 쉽지 않습니다. 도대체 왜 이럴까요? 주가가 이렇게 오르면 안전자산인 금은 내려야 하지 않을까요? 인플레이션에 원자재가 오른다던데, 제로금리인 지금 금은 왜 오를까요? 아니 주식 채권 금 다 오르면 헷지가 뭔 소용이 있는걸까요? 매우 혼란스럽습니다. 대부분의 사람들이 처음 보는 현상이고, 저도 마찬가지이며, 저도 잘 모릅니다. 다만 제가 지난 주중에 금/은을 포트폴리오에 20% 편입하기로 한 결정을 내린 이유에 대해서만, 즉 제 나름대로의 논리만 이야기를 해보도록 하겠습니다. 저는 이 상황을 '채권이 자기 역할을 하지 못하고 있기 때문이다'고 정리했습니다. 물론 채권에 몰려있는 돈도 사상 최대입니다. 하지만 현재 미국채 금리는...다들 아시다시피 실질적으로는 제로에서 마이너스에 가깝습니다. 이런 상황에서 헷징을 위해 채권에 계속 돈을 투입한다? 글쎄요... 물론 채권 가격이 금리만 갖고 움직이는 것은 아니지만, 좀 절망적인 것도 사실이죠. 그래서 주식과 상관관계가 낮은 자산군인 원자재, 그중에서 금으로도 돈이 많이 몰리는게 아닌가 싶습니다. 아니 유동성이 그렇게 많다는데 주식으로 그러면 많이 가지 않을까요? 하는 생각도 할 수 있습니다. 하지만 이미 주식시장은 오를 대로 올랐죠. 한국만 해도 코로나 이전보다 주가가 위죠? 미국도 나스닥 기준으로는 사상 최고가를 찍고 잠시 내려온 상태까지 올라와있는 상태입니다. 아무리 유동성이 좋더라도 지금의 주가는 정당화하기가 좀 힘들죠. 게다가 달러 인덱스까지 약세입니다. 이건 해석하기 나름인데, 현재 최고 강한 화폐는 유로화입니다. 그런데 유럽 경제가 강한가요? 유럽 주가가 쭉쭉 오르고 있나요? 이건 누가 봐도 아니죠. 그러면 유로화가 강한 게 아니라 달러가 정말 약한 겁니다. 흔히 화폐가치가 떨어지면 그걸 보고 해외자본이 들어온다고 하지만, 그건 의도적으로 약달러를 할 때입니다. 2016~19는 미국 경제가 다른 나라에 비해 괜찮고 금리도 높은데 의도적으로 약달러까지 취해서 미친듯이 돈을 끌어모았죠. 2020년 현재는 미국 금리가 가장 낮은편에(최소 유럽과 다를 것도 없는 수준) 경제까지 가장 안좋습니다. 이건 진짜로 달러가 약한 겁니다. 이래서 달러 외 표시자산(즉 미국 외 자산군)이나 원자재로 돈이 몰리는게 아닌가 하는 겁니다. 현재 미국의 기축통화 패권은 내부에서조차 의심받고 있는게 아닌가 싶을 정도입니다. 골드만삭스는 대놓고 달러 패권에 대해서 경고를 한 상태고, 블랙락의 CEO인 래리 핑크조차 6월 말부터 대놓고 '신흥국 주식을 사세요'하고 다닙니다. 그런데 미국은 울며 겨자먹기로 달러를 계속 풀어야 합니다. 2차 추경 규모가 1조 달러로 알려져 있는데, 이는 시장에서 요구하고 있는 컨센서스 평균인 1조 5천억 달러보다 한참 모자랍니다. 민주당은 대놓고 3조 달러안을 요구하며 다투고 있죠. 제 기준으로 달러 인덱스가 지금보다 더 오를 일은 없습니다. 그렇게 되면 달러 패권은 계속 금이 갈 것이고, 중국을 비롯한 신흥국으로 돈이 더 빠져나갈 가능성이 높습니다. 저는 결국 지금의 제로금리 환경+코로나 최대 피해로 인해 달러가 계속 약해질 거라 생각했습니다. 더 나아가서, 미국이 이걸 용납하지 못하고 금리인상이든 뭐든 다음 행동을 할 것까지 예상중입니다. 금리는 함부로 올리긴 힘들테니 중국과의 분쟁을 어떻게든 만들려고 노력중인데, 구호로만 그치고 있지요. 저는 한번쯤은 미국이 스태그플레이션을 무릅쓰고 인플레이션을 단행시킬거라고 생각을 분명히 하고 있습니다. 그렇게 되면 원자재는 지금 가격은 귀여운 수준으로 상승할 겁니다. 다시 말씀드리지만 이건 지극히 저의 주관적인 견해이고, 필자의 경제학 수준은 학부생 평균보다도 못합니다. 애초에 경제학은 원론 수업 한번 들은게 전부입니다. 그냥 제가 원자재에 투자한 이유를 정당화하는 정도라 보시면 될 듯합니다. 이런 시나리오를 들고 현재 금/은을 보유중이며, 이 시나리오가 깨진다고 판단되면 즉시 은은 매도할 생각입니다(금은 계속 헷징으로 보유). Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3
이 게시판에 등록된 존보글님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
146663 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
146663 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
146663'> 맥주만땅
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
20/07/29 16:20
146663>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
제가 생각하는 금과 은
- 금: 인플레이션에 대응하는 교환가능한 재화
- 은: 금이 오를 때 잠시 널뛰는 재화.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
- 금: 인플레이션에 대응하는 교환가능한 재화
- 은: 금이 오를 때 잠시 널뛰는 재화.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
146663>
146663>
