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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 20/02/17 20:59:13 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | 토끼모자를쓴펭귄 |
| Subject | 21대 총선을 예측해보아요 |
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참여연대가 21대 총선에서 바뀐 선거제 때문에 의원수 계산이 어려운 것 때문에 의원수 계산기를 만들었습니다. 의석수 계산기를 만들게 된 계기를 설명하는 기사 : http://omn.kr/1mkib 21대 국회 의석수 계산기 : http://bit.ly/count300 저는 저 나름의 가정을 가지고 계산을 해보았습니다. 참고 : [리얼미터]정당 지지도, 민주 39.9% vs 한국 32%..격차 9.2→7.9%p http://v.media.daum.net/v/20200217093028673 위 기사에서, 리얼미터가 조사한 2020년 2월 2주차 정당 지지도는 더민주 : 39.9 자한당 : 32.0 정의당 : 4.8 새보수당 : 3.9 바미당 : 2.6 민평당 : 1.5 민중당 : 1.3 공화당 : 1.2 대안신당 : 0.9 그런데 자한당+새보수당이 합쳐서 미래당을 만들었으니 그 당의 지지도를 32% 그대로는 안 가고 한 34%를 잡았습니다. 그런데 비례위성당의 지지율은 어떻게 될 것인가? 미래통합당은 한 8% 남짓 남고 나머지 26%가 모두 미래한국당으로 가는 성공적인 전략투표가 행해졌다고 가정했습니다. 또 바미당+민평당+대안신당=민주통합의원모임의 지지율은 2.6+1.5+0.9 = 5% 정의당 = 4.8% 국민의당은 한 3%로 봅니다. 그런데 더민주당에게 비례투표를 해봤자 더민주당은 비례대표를 몇명 못 얻습니다. 따라서 사표 방지 심리 때문에 이 세 당에게 표가 조금이라도 더 갈 가능성이 있으니까 +-@ 보정을 합니다. 따라서 저는 다음의 정당득표율(비례대표 투표 득표율)을 가정했습니다. 더민주 : 36 미래통합당 : 8 미래한국당 : 26 민주통합의원모임 : 6 정의당 : 6 국민의당 : 4 이들의 정당득표율의 총합이 100이 되게끔 모든 항에 가중치 x1.15배를 줍니다. (원래 '기타' 항목도 있었는데 계산기에 항이 너무 많이 들어갈 수 없다는 걸 깨닫고 지워서 sum이 100%가 안되어버린..ㅠㅠ) 더민주 : 41.4 미래통합당 : 9.2 미래한국당 : 29.9 민주통합의원모임 : 6.9 정의당 : 6.9 국민의당 : 4.6 지역구는 더민주와 미래당이 양분하는 가운데 정의당이 1~2석 정도를 가져갈 수 있을 것 같습니다. 생각하기 귀찮아서 20대 총선의 지역구 결과를 그냥 가져다 쓰기로 하였습니다. 가중치를 주어서 253석을 맞추도록 하고요. 더민주 : 110 -> 123 미래당 : 105 -> 117 정의당 : 2 무소속 : 11 참고 : 제20대 국회의원 선거 https://namu.wiki/w/%EC%A0%9C20%EB%8C%80%20%EA%B5%AD%ED%9A%8C%EC%9D%98%EC%9B%90%20%EC%84%A0%EA%B1%B0 이것을 이제 참여연대의 국회 의석수 계산기에 넣으면 됩니다. 그리고 계산하기를 누르면..! 엄재경 위원이 강림하셨는지 더민주 vs 미래(통합, 한국)당이 의원수가 엄대엄이 나옵니다. 더민주 : 135 미래(통합, 한국)당 : 124 + 10 = 134 민주통합의원모임 : 6 정의당 : 8 국민의당 : 6 무소속 : 11   여러분도 심심풀이로 한번 해보세요~ Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 토끼모자를쓴펭귄님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
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139606 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
139606 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
139606'> 토비
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
20/02/17 21:05
139606>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
자한당에서 비례후보를 한명도 안내면 정당 투표지에서 자한당의 란이 아예 사라진다고 하더군요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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