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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 15/09/18 08:40:10 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | MANAGYST |
| Subject | 9월 FOMC회의 Review |
|
1. 금리 인상 안했다(X), 못했다(O) 미국 경제에 대한 장기적인 전망치를 낮추긴 했지만, 최근 미국 경제 상황을 보면, 9월에 금리를 올리더라도 뭐라고 할 사람은 없습니다. 시장에서 마지막 순간까지 9월 인상 가능성을 배제하지 않았던 이유입니다. 그럼 왜 인상을 안했을까요? 가장 큰 이유는 "Global Risk - Crisis" 때문입니다. Yellen's Decision to Delay Fed Liftoff Points to Global Risks 이 말을 두고, 일부에서는 "미국만 위하는 중앙은행인줄 알았는데, 글로벌을 걱정해주고, 변했네?" 라고 해석하시는 분이 있는 것 같습니다만, 제 생각에는 이건 철저한 "오해"입니다. 2. 연준은 여전히 미국만의 중앙은행이다 제가 연준에서 근무하셨던 교수님의 세미나에서 들은 이야기입니다. "연준은 미국만을 위한 결정을 한다. 그런데, 다른 나라를 신경 쓰는 유일한 경우가 있다. 그건 다른 나라의 상황이 미국에게 영향을 줄 때다. 즉, 연준은 정말 미국만을 위한 결정을 한다는 거다" 그 분이 이렇게 생각하시게 된 이유는 "우리나라 IMF위기 때"였다고 합니다. 동아시아 국가들이 외환위기로 신음하고 있었지만,연준에서는 거의 신경쓰지 않았다는 거죠. 이번엔 다릅니다. 위기에 빠질 수 있는 나라들의 덩치가 좀 큽니다. 중국.. 브라질.. 러시아.. 그럼 연준에서 글로벌을 신경쓰고 있다는 건 어떻게 해석해야 할까요? "그들의 위험이 미국의 경제 성장에도 위협을 줄 정도로 크다"라고 봐야 한다는 것이 제 생각입니다. 3. 두려움.. 과거에 제가 옐런이 비둘기파적인 발언을 했을 때 이런 비유를 한 적이 있습니다. 제가 축구를 좋아했었는데요. 맨날 밤 늦게까지 놀고, 엄마가 밥먹으로 들어오라고 혼을 내야 들어가곤 했습니다. 그 날도 늦게까지 축구하고 이제 어둑어둑 해가 질 쯔음 "엄마가 곧 들어오라고 하겠지?" 하고 생각하고 있었는데, 갑자기 엄마가 "밥 아직 안되었으니.. 좀 더 놀다 들어와라"라고 이야기해주셨다구요. 그럼 기분이 정말 좋았고, 그동안 놀았던 것 보다 훨~씬 더 열심히 놀았다.. 그런데 오늘은 엄마가 우리 아들이 많이 아프다는 걸 안거죠. 그래서 "(매우 슬픈 뉘앙스로) 그래~ 좀 더 놀아라..." 라고 이야기한 거라고 봐야할 것 같습니다. 그럼 축구를 하고 놀던 저도 이상하게 생각하겠죠.. "뭐지.. 내가 이렇게 놀고 있어도 되나? 무서운데...." 4. 가장 놀라운 사실 제가 이번 회의록을 보면서 가장 놀랐던 것은 미국에 대한 경기 전망이 낮아진 것도 아니었고, 또. 미국이 글로벌 경제 및 금융 환경을 걱정하는 듯한 모습을 보였다는 것도 아니었구요. 제가 진짜 놀란 것은 연준 의원중에 마이너스 금리를 전망한 사람이 있었다는 겁니다. 그것도 2015년과 내년까지 마이너스로 유지해야 한다는 건데... 허~ 거참.. 5. 결론 이제는 정말 글로벌 정책 공조(특히 미국과 중국간의)가 중요합니다. 시진핑이나 오바마가 뭐라고 하고 다니는지가 잘 봐야 할 것 같고, 그들의 의지에 따라 시장이 안정될 지 여부가 결정될 것 같습니다. 벌써부터 중국에서 대규모 부양책이 10월중에 나올 것이라는 이야기가 나오고 있습니다. 한편, FOMC회의 이후, Crisis 에 대한 시장의 관심은 더욱 커질 것 같습니다. Google trend를 잘 봐야 할 것 같아요 마지막으로 기억해야 할 것은 늘 그렇듯. "위기가 온다"라는 예측은 그 자체가 위기를 예방하는 능력이 있다는 사실입니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 MANAGYST님의 최근 게시물
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15227 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
15227 class='vcm '>
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
15227'> Toby
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/09/18 09:01
15227>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
마이너스 금리라... 돈을 맡기면 맡아주는 비용을 내야 한다는거네요.
연말에는 금리를 올리겠다는 제스처를 보였다고 기사가 계속 나오던데... 앞으로는 정말 오르게 될런지 모르겠습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
연말에는 금리를 올리겠다는 제스처를 보였다고 기사가 계속 나오던데... 앞으로는 정말 오르게 될런지 모르겠습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
15227>
15227>
