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홍차넷
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추천
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- 회원들이 추천해주신 좋은 글들을 따로 모아놓는 공간입니다.
- 추천글은 매주 자문단의 투표로 선정됩니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌게임문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제체육/스포츠과학철학/종교정치/사회요리/음식역사여행IT/컴퓨터음악창작사진
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| Date |
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| Name | MANAGYST |
| Subject | 집은 시장리스크, 전세는 신용리스크 |
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드디어 주말에 집주인에게 저세값을 올려달라는 이야기를 들었습니다. 이제 드디어 전세값, 집값... 남의 일이 아니게 되었네요 사실 이 주제에 대해서 나오는 이야기는 너무 뻐~언 합니다. "전세값이 너무 올라서 차라리 집 사야겠다" "아니다. 그래도 일시적으로 이러겠지. 조금만 참자" "2년만다 이 고민 하는 거 지겹다. 그냥 집 사자" "그래도 집값 내려가서 고생하는 일본 사람들 봐라. 그냥 참자" "정부에서 이자도 내려줬으니, 그냥 집사자" "아니다. 금리 올라가면 어쩌려고 그러냐. 참자. 참어..." 그러다 문득, 과거 FRM 시험공부를 할 때 배웠던 Market Risk 와 Credit Risk가 생각났습니다. Market Risk 와 Credit Risk 금융시장에서 우리가 가장 흔하게 접할 수 있는 리스크중 가장 큰 것이 "시장리스크"와 "신용리스크"입니다. 시장리스크가 금융상품의 가격변화가 내 돈(자산)에 미치는 영향이라고 한다면, 신용리스크는 거래상대방이 디폴트를 내서 돈을 못 갚을 경우를 말합니다. < 시장리스크: 맛이 더 있고 없고의 차이, 신용리스크: 사과가 썩었는지 여부 > 비유를 하자면, 이렇습니다. 사과중에 좀 더 맛있는 사과와 덜 맛있는 사과중 하나를 선택하는 것이 시장리스크라고 하면, 썩은 사과를 골라서 배탈이 나는 경우가 신용리스크에 비유될 수 있습니다. 일반적으로 사람들에게 시장리스크는 늘 노출되어 있지만, 치명적이진 않습니다. 집을 사라는 압박을 견디지 못하고, 집을 산 사람은 이러한 집값 변동에 따른 "시장리스크"에 노출됩니다. 반면, 신용리스크는 사람들이 잊고 살기 쉽지만, 막상 그 리스크가 발생되면, 엄청나게 치명적입니다. 집을 끝까지 사지 않고(혹은 사지 못하고) 전세를 선택하는 사람은 이러한 "신용리스크"에 노출됩니다. 집주인이 어떤 이유에서든 내돈(전세금)을 안 줄 가능성이 있거든요. 집을 사신 분의 경우 받아들여야할 Market Risk에 대한 조언은 "집값이 오를거 같아? 내릴거 같아?"라는 이 시대의 화두에 대한 대답을 해주실 수 있는 수 많은 전문가를 통해 많이 들으셨을 것 같구요. 오늘 저는 그냥 전세를 사시는 분들이 직면한 리스크가 어떤 성격인지. 그리고 어떻게 Credit Risk를 회피할 수 있는지에 대한 이야기를 해보겠습니다. < Credit Risk를 회피하는 법 > 1. 내가 어떤 리스크를 선택(Taking)했는 지 알자. 제가 제일 중요하게 생각하는 부분은 본인이 어떤 리스크를 선택했는지를 아는 것입니다."나는 집값이 폭락할 것 같아. 그러니, 집은 절대 사지 않고, 전세로 살아야지~!""전세금이 집값의 90% 넘으면, 어때 어차피 돌려받을 돈인데..."이런 안일한 생각으로 전세를 가입하는 것은 위험합니다. 본인이 전세를 선택해서 감수해야 할 위험이 어떤 것인지 정확히 알아야죠. 2. 리스크를 관리할 수 있는 방법을 알자. Managing Credit Risk(출처:http://www.slideshare.net/kiyoshiwatari/credit-risk-management-8976886) 위 표는 Credit Risk를 어떻게 나누어 볼 수 있는지를 설명해주는 간단한 개념도 입니다. X축은 얼마나 자주 일어나는 이벤트인지(Frequency)를 나타내고, Y축은 얼마나 큰 피해를 줄 수 있는지(Impact)를 말하죠. 만약 자주 일어나지도 않고, 영향도 크지 않다면 그런 리스크는 그냥 무시(Keep)해도 됩니다. 문제는 영향은 크지 않아도 자주 일어나거나, 자주 일어나진 않아도 영향이 엄청 큰 경우입니다. 이럴 때 필요한 것이 Insurance(보험)입니다! 맘이라도 편하자는 거죠. 마지막으로 자주 일어나기도 하고, 영향이 큰 경우에는 Avoid(피하는 것)이 상책입니다. 3. Insure or Avoid 사실 전세금에 대한 신용리스크를 위 그림처럼 체계적으로 분석하는 건 의미가 별로 없습니다. 당사자가 생각하는 문제의 심각성(계약 기간 내에 집값이 폭락하던지 해서 내 돈을 못받을 가능성)과 집주인의 관상(돈을 안갚을 사람인지 아닌지) 등을 종합해서 판단하는 수 밖에요. 1) Basic : 확정일자 가장 기본이 되는 것은 확정일자 받는 겁니다. 집주인 동의도 필요 없습니다. 과거에는 직접 주민센터에 가서 해야 했는데, 이제 이번달 부터(2015년 9월 14일~) 인터넷 등기소(http:www.iros.go.kr)에서 확정일자를 인터넷으로 신청이 가능해졌답니다. 대신 주택임대차계약증서를 스캔하고, 온라인으로 제출하는 등의 수고는 감당해야겠죠. 그리고 수수료도 600원에서 500원으로 100원 내렸네요!! 2) Insurance(보험 가입) : 전세권 설정 등기 or 보증보험 가입 둘다 집주인의 동의가 필요하다는 공통점이 있습니다. 이 부분은 따지고 보면, "집주인이 전세금을 받는다는 것은 일종의 대출을 받는 개념이니, 그걸 인정하라"는 건데, 그냥 묘~한 거부감이 있는 분들이 있으면, 안해주는 사람도 있죠. 너무 당연한건데 말이죠. - 차이점 : 필요서류 / 신청방법 / 비용 / 특징 등 여러가지가 다릅니다. → 전세권 설정 : 당사자들끼리 합의해서 전세권을 설정하기로 계약하는 것. 근데 반드시 등기를 해야만 효력이 발생. "확정일자 받고, 전입신고"해도 비슷한 효력을 갖는데, 뭐하러 복잡하게 전세권 설정 같은거 하냐... 할 수 있느데, 쉽게 말하면, 더 강력한 의미의 보험이라고 보시면 됩니다. 즉, 전세권을 설정하면, 집주인 동의 없이 전세권을 다른 사람한테 팔거나, 또 전세를 줄 수도 있습니다(전전세). 뿐만 아니라, 만약에 Credit Risk(집주인이 돈 안줄 때)가 발생할 경우, 확정일자만 받아놓으면, "임차보증금반환청구소송"을 제기해서 승소판결을 받고, 강제집행을 신청해야 하는데, 전세권을 설정한 경우에는 판결절차 없이도 직접 경매를 신청할 수 있습니다. 계산해보니, 대략 2억원짜리 전세라면, 법무사 비용을 제외하고, 약 50만원의 비용이 들겠네요. → 보증보험 가입 : 전세권 설정이 Credit Risk에 대한 법적인 대응이라고 한다면, 보증보험을 가입하는 것은 경제적 대응이라고 할 수 있을 것 같습니다. 자동차 사고를 대비해서 보험을 가입하는 것처럼 전세금을 못 받을 가능성에 대비해서 보험을 가입하는 것이지요. 당연히 보험료를 내야하구요. 보험요율이 0.192%로 1억 전세라면, 1년에 192,000원의 보험료를 내야 합니다. 개인적으로는 이게 깔끔하고 좋은 것 같습니다. 필요한 서류는 등기부등본/주민등록등본/동의서/시세확인서 등이 있구요. 중개업소를 통하고 확정일자를 받은 임대차계약서가 필요합니다. (www.sgic.co.kr) 3) Avoid(피해라) 다 싫다. 나는 그런 리스크를 생각하면서 살고 싶지 않다. 하시는 분. 즉, 앞서 언급한 Credit risk가 너무 크게 느껴지시는 분은 피하시면 됩니다. How??? 월세로 전환하는 것입니다. "뭐냐! 돈아깝께 월세라니!!!"라고 하시는 분도 있겠지만, 월세로 전환하게 되면, Credit risk와 Market risk로 부터 자유로워질 수 있습니다. 하지만, 여전히 월세는 많은 사람들이 선호하는 방식은 아닙니다. Cash flow를 중요하시기 때문이기도 할 것이고, 앞서 언급한 Credit Risk가 간과되고 있기 때문이기도 할 것입니다. 하지만, 앞으로 이런 리스크들이 조금 더 이슈화가 된다면, 월세도 세입자들에게 사랑받는? 방법이 될 수도 있을 것 같습니다 * 난커피가더좋아님에 의해서 자유 게시판으로부터 게시물 복사되었습니다 (2015-10-02 07:33) * 관리사유 : 추천게시판으로 복사합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 6 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
1648 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
1648 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
1648'> Zel
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/09/22 08:42
1648>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
그래서 반전세가 유행하기도 하는 것 같습니다. 대출 없는 집 별로 없고 전세가는 매매가에 육박하니 이런 대출 낀 집에 전세금 주기엔 뒷골 아프거든요. 세입자 입장에서도 전세금 다 줄수는 있지만 리스크가 너무 크니 후순위로도 받을 수 있을 만큼만 걸고 나머지는 월세로 돌려 마음의 안정을 삼는. 뭐 장기적으론 다 월세로 전환될꺼고 그 때는 아마 지금 까지를 집 구하기는 쉬웠던 과거로 기억될 겁니다. 마치 90년대를 직장 구하긴 쉬웠던 과거로 기억하는 것 처럼.. 미국 비지팅을 1년 가야되서 집값을 알아보니 우리의 미래가 이럴거 같아서 말이죠...아무리 캘리포니아지만 30평 초반 아파트 월세 400은 너무한거 아닌가 싶습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1648>
1648>
