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홍차넷
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추천
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- 회원들이 추천해주신 좋은 글들을 따로 모아놓는 공간입니다.
- 추천글은 매주 자문단의 투표로 선정됩니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌게임문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제체육/스포츠과학철학/종교정치/사회요리/음식역사여행IT/컴퓨터음악창작사진
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| Date |
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| Name | 난커피가더좋아 |
| Subject | 한국 해운업 위기의 배경에 대한 브리핑 |
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요새 경제신문은 물론 종합지들까지 1면은 죄다 구조조정 얘기로 도배가 되고 있습니다. 조선과 해운, 즉 배를 만드는 산업과 그 배로 물량을 실어나르는 두 산업이 이제 한계상황이 돼서 산소호흡기를 떼야할 지경이 됐다는 거죠. 일단 오늘은 해운업 얘기부터 해보겠습니다. 오늘도 동료들과 한국 해운산업 위기에 대해 많은 대화를 나눴는데요 생각난 김에 간만에 홍차넷에도 글을 올립니다. 오늘 올리는 글은 일종의 '위기의 배경' 정도 되는 글입니다. 혹시나 가능하면 2편, 3편 다루고 조선업까지 다루고 싶은데 솔직히 시간이 요새 너무 빡빡해서 자신이 없습니다. 해운업은 세계 경기의 영향을 많이 받는 업종입니다. 무역이 활발해지고, 특히 중국이나 동남아 등 신흥시장이 고속성장을 할 때에는 더욱 그렇습니다. 원자재도 실어 날라야 하고 여러 완제품/반제품 도 컨테이너 박스로 엄청 싣고 다녀야 하니까요. 그런데 중국의 경제성장률은 꺾인지 오래고, 2008년 미국발 금융위기, 2010년 이후 유럽발 재정위기 등으로 침체된 세계 경제 전반이, 셰일가스 등의 천운으로 어느정도 회복된 미국을 제외하고는 전반적으로 '장기불황'의 국면으로 들어서게 됩니다. 계속되는 저성장 국면, 혹은 장기불황 국면에서 한국도 안전할 순 없겠지요. 한국은 계속 흑자를 기록한다고는 하지만, 수입이 줄면서 버티는 전형적인 불황형 흑자입니다. 한국 경제 진짜 심각한 지표 중 하나는 설비투자인데요, 2016년 1분기에 전년동기대비 -5.9% 를 기록합니다. 그런데, 이상한 것이 있죠. 이게 갑자기 터진 일이 아니잖아요. 그동안 대비를 제대로 못한 건가요? 왜 최소 해운업에서만 1만명~2만명이 해고될 상황으로까지 내몰린 것일가요? 이 얘기를 꺼내기 위해서는 IMF 경제위기 시절로 거슬러 올라가야합니다. http://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/04/27/2016042700072.html 이 기사를 참고하시면 이해하기가 쉽습니다. 몇 가지 첨언하고, 굳이 클릭하지 않으실 분들을 위해 간단하게 설명을 하면, IMF가 강제하는 많은 구조조정 프로그램을 가동하던 당시 한국 경제 사령탑은, 여러 대기업들에게 부채비율을 낮추라고 권고(혹은 협박)를 하게 됩니다. 그 당시 정부 탓만 하기도 어려운게, 그땐 정말 IMF가 시키는 대로 하지 않으면 안될 분위기였거든요. 부채비율을 맞추기 위해, 즉 부채를 줄이기 위해 젤 쉬운게 뭡니까. 가치 있는 걸 파는 겁니다. 그래서 해운사들이 자사 소유 선박들을 많이 팔아 넘깁니다. 뭐 이해할 수 있죠. 어쨌든 해운업은 배를 소유해야만 할 수 있는 게 아니니까요. 비유를 하자면, 원래 자기 건물에서 장사하던 사람들이 가게 점포를 팔아서 세를 내면서 사업을 하기 시작한 겁니다. 그래도 우리가 'IMF를 극복했다'고 하는 시점에는 세계경제가 호황이었으니까, 쉽게 말해 손님이 많았으니 '가게세'(용선료)가 문제가 안됐던 겁니다. 그런데.... 그리고 나서 몇년 뒤에 전세계적인 위기가 시작되니 손님은 줄었는데, 비싸게 계약해 놓은 장기 월세 계약서는 엄청난 부담이 되는 겁니다. 2010년에 1367이었던 상하이 컨테이너 운임지수(SCFI)는 2015년 말이 되면 600이하로 떨어지고, 발틱 운임지수는 2758에서 317로 떨어집니다. 한 마디로 전 세계 해운 산업이 작살이 난 거죠. 이 상황에서 즉 일거리는 없는데, IMF 직후 한참 비쌀 때 장기 계약해놓은 용선료는 그대로 내고 있습니다. (그 이후 계약도 잘못 베팅을 해서 역시나 꽤나 비싼가격에 해 놓기도 했답니다.http://www.hankyung.com/news/app/newsview.php?aid=2016042484621 이 기사 보면 열불납니다. 멍청한 경영진들 ㅠㅠ) 미칠 노릇이지요. 한국의 양대 해운 업체들이 그럼 그동안 자구노력이 없었느냐? 꼭 그렇진 않습니다. 자기들이 가진 컨테이너 박스를 팔아서 수백억원을 조달하기도 했구요(2013년 현대) 한진해운도 부채비율 줄이고 어떻게든 영업이익 남겨서 살아보려고 애는 많이 쓴 흔적이 보입니다. 물론 모든 게 이 용선료 때문은 아닙니다. 세계 1위 해운업체이자 위기에 끄떡없는 '머스크'라는 해운업체의 대표로 있던 사람은 이미 2014년에 "한국의 양대 해운 업체는 '정부의 도움을 너무 많이 받고 있다. 그래서 위기 대처능력이 없을 것'이라고 예측하기도 했습니다. 이런 상황에서 해운동맹(전세계 해운업자들이 만들어 놓은 공급자 카르텔)에서 버림받을 수 있는 상황입니다. 그래서 한진과 현대가 자기들 주도로 해운동맹을 새로 만들까 생각 중이랍니다. (?) http://news.heraldcorp.com/view.php?ud=20160427000536 뭐 어쨌든, 해운업 구조조정은 이제 본격적으로 시작될 예정입니다. '구조조정'이라는 딱딱한 네 글자로는 실직당하는 가장의 아픔도, 아이 대학 등록금을 마련해야하는 어머니의 고통도, 주변에서 그들의 식사와 술과 소비재를 팔던 자영업자들의 폐업이라는 '인간의 삶'은 눈에 드러나지 않습니다. "그동안 돈 잘벌고 연봉 1억씩 받고 잘 살았는데 이제와서 징징대냐?"라고 몰아붙이는 게 답은 아닐 겁니다. 어쨌든, 두 해운사 중 하나는 법정관리로 넣고, 다른 하나는 집중 지원해 살리는 방법도 있을 수 있고요, 둘 다 산업은행 자회사로 넣은 뒤에 산은이 구조조정을 주도 할 수도 있습니다.(퍽이나?) 아니면 두 회사를 합병시킬 수도 있는데 솔직히 이것도 굉장히 어렵습니다. 일단 둘다 너무 부실하고 합병이라는 게 그리 쉬운 일이 아니니까요. 저는 답을 모릅니다. 앞으로 어찌될지 예측도 못합니다. 다만, 그저 관련 당국과 업계의 모두가 최대한 머리를 맞대서 노동자들의 희생을 최소화하고 '기간 산업'이라고도 할 수 있는 한국의 해운산업이 최소한의 수준은 유지할 수 있도록 지켜줬으면 하는 바람입니다. 이상 간단한 브리핑을 마치겠습니다. * 수박이두통에게보린님에 의해서 티타임 게시판으로부터 게시물 복사되었습니다 (2016-05-09 10:29) * 관리사유 : 추천게시판으로 복사합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 6
이 게시판에 등록된 난커피가더좋아님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
4233 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
4233 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
4233'> Beer Inside
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
16/04/27 17:06
4233>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
해운업은 신기하더군요.
신규시장 진입자가 진입하기 어려운 장벽이 꽤나 있어서, 자동차 운송도 카르텔이 아니면 할 수 없는 수준이더군요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
신규시장 진입자가 진입하기 어려운 장벽이 꽤나 있어서, 자동차 운송도 카르텔이 아니면 할 수 없는 수준이더군요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
4233>
4233>
