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홍차넷
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질문
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- 질문 게시판입니다.
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전체기타게임진로연애가정/육아체육/스포츠교육의료/건강철학/종교IT/컴퓨터여행과학문화/예술법률홍차넷경제
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 23/04/19 23:44:19 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | moqq |
| Subject | 기업의 영구성장률과 최종가치 공식. |
|
DCF방법으로 기업의 가치를 측정할 때 기업이 앞으로 n년 동안 벌어들인 돈의 합 + n년 뒤에는 GDP수준으로 성장할 것을 가정한 상태에서의 최종가치를 계산해서 현재 시점으로 할인해서 구하잖아요. 그러면 최종가치? 혹은 잔존가치를 구하는 공식이 최종가치 TV = FCF_n * (1 + g) / (r - g) FCF_n = 예측 기간의 마지막 예상 잉여현금흐름 g = 잉여 현금 흐름의 영구 성장률 r = 할인율 이란 말이죠. 그래서 마지막 FCF를 100원이라 치고 영구성장률은 3%정도로 잡고, r 할인율은 자본에 대한 기회비용이니까 8% 정도 잡아서 계산을 하면 최종가치가 2060원이 나온단 말이에요. 근데 마지막 FCF가 100원인데 가치를 2060원준다는 건 per 20을 주는 거나 마찬가지인데 매년 3%성장하는 회사에, 자본의 기회비용을 8% 잡았는데 왜 per 20이나 주는 결과가 나오는거죠? 영구성장률 3%가 너무 높은가 싶어서 2%로 해도 1700원이 나온단 말이죠. 그럼 이게 현시점에서 per 15이하 기업들은 2%만 성장해도 할인된 상태라는 이야기인건가요? 기대수익 8%잡으면 per 가 12.5여야 하는데? Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 moqq님의 최근 게시물 |
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134750 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
134750 class='vcm '>
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134750'> 거소
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23/04/20 00:45
134750>삭제 주소복사
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원하시는 답변은 아니겠지만 GPT 4.0에게 물어보니까 PER과 최종가치와 DCF를 가지고 직접적으로 비교분석하지 말라고하네요. 그렇게 유추할 수 있는게 아니라는데.. 그런가요? 요새 GPT쓰는 맛에 들려서..
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The comparison you're making between the terminal value and the P/E ratio is not direct. The terminal value in a DCF model represents the present value of all futu... 더 보기
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The comparison you're making between the terminal value and the P/E ratio is not direct. The terminal value in a DCF model represents the present value of all futu... 더 보기
원하시는 답변은 아니겠지만 GPT 4.0에게 물어보니까 PER과 최종가치와 DCF를 가지고 직접적으로 비교분석하지 말라고하네요. 그렇게 유추할 수 있는게 아니라는데.. 그런가요? 요새 GPT쓰는 맛에 들려서..
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The comparison you're making between the terminal value and the P/E ratio is not direct. The terminal value in a DCF model represents the present value of all future cash flows beyond the forecast period, assuming a constant growth rate. On the other hand, the P/E ratio is a valuation multiple that compares the market price per share to the earnings per share.
While it is true that a terminal value of 2060 for an FCF of 100 might seem like a high valuation, it is essential to remember that the terminal value represents the present value of all future cash flows, not just the last FCF. The P/E ratio is not calculated in the DCF model, and the comparison you are making doesn't directly translate to a P/E ratio of 20.
Regarding your question about the 3% and 2% growth rates, changing the perpetual growth rate in the DCF model will indeed impact the terminal value. However, it's essential to choose a growth rate that is reasonable and justifiable based on the company's industry, competitive position, and growth prospects.
Lastly, the relationship between the expected return and the P/E ratio is not as direct as you've suggested. While a lower P/E ratio might indicate a potentially higher expected return, the P/E ratio is not the only factor to consider when evaluating a company's potential returns. The P/E ratio is a valuation multiple, and its relationship with the expected return is not straightforward. Other factors, such as the company's growth prospects, risk, and the overall market environment, should also be considered when assessing potential returns.
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제시하신 조건들만으로 투자전문가로서 평가하라고했더니 그럴 수 없다고 뺀찌놔버림..
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The comparison you're making between the terminal value and the P/E ratio is not direct. The terminal value in a DCF model represents the present value of all future cash flows beyond the forecast period, assuming a constant growth rate. On the other hand, the P/E ratio is a valuation multiple that compares the market price per share to the earnings per share.
While it is true that a terminal value of 2060 for an FCF of 100 might seem like a high valuation, it is essential to remember that the terminal value represents the present value of all future cash flows, not just the last FCF. The P/E ratio is not calculated in the DCF model, and the comparison you are making doesn't directly translate to a P/E ratio of 20.
Regarding your question about the 3% and 2% growth rates, changing the perpetual growth rate in the DCF model will indeed impact the terminal value. However, it's essential to choose a growth rate that is reasonable and justifiable based on the company's industry, competitive position, and growth prospects.
Lastly, the relationship between the expected return and the P/E ratio is not as direct as you've suggested. While a lower P/E ratio might indicate a potentially higher expected return, the P/E ratio is not the only factor to consider when evaluating a company's potential returns. The P/E ratio is a valuation multiple, and its relationship with the expected return is not straightforward. Other factors, such as the company's growth prospects, risk, and the overall market environment, should also be considered when assessing potential returns.
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