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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
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뉴스
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 새로운 뉴스를 올려주세요.
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전체기타정치IT/컴퓨터방송/연예스포츠경제문화/예술사회게임의료/건강과학/기술국제외신
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 23/12/26 14:53:09 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 카르스 |
| Subject | 14세기 유럽의 흑사병과 21세기 한국의 인구문제 |
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21세기 한국이 직면한 인구문제의 본질은 14세기 유럽의 그것과 근본적으로 다르다. 따라서 흑사병 시대에 각인된 극심한 혼란과 공포의 이미지도, 역병이 사라진 뒤 서유럽의 인구와 사회가 빠르게 회복했다는 낙관적인 사실도, 한국이 경험하고 있는 인구 변화의 미래를 보여주지는 못한다. 그렇다면 현재의 한국은 14세기 유럽과 어떤 면에서 다른가? 한국의 인구 위기는 중세 흑사병의 충격보다 심각한가? 나쁜 소식부터 시작하자. 21세기 한국은 인구 규모가 줄어들 뿐만 아니라 인구 구조가 급격하게 변하면서 사회경제적·제도적 불균형이 확대될 것이다. 모든 연령층의 사망이 늘었던 흑사병 시대의 유럽과 달리, 한국은 가파른 출생아 수 감소로 인해 인구가 빠르게 고령화되고 있다. 또한 사회보험, 복지제도, 의료시스템, 교육기관 등 중세 유럽에는 없었던 제도들이 형성되면서 인구 변화의 영향도 달라졌다. 이러한 사정 때문에 21세기 한국의 인구 변화는 14세기 유럽의 인구감소보다 더 복잡하고 대응하기 어려운 도전이 될 가능성이 크다. 좀 더 구체적으로 들여다보자. 한 국가의 각종 제도는 대체로 매년 태어나는 인구(출생 코호트)의 규모를 고려하여 만들어진 경우가 많다. 예컨대 산부인과와 소아청소년과 전문의 수, 보육시설과 학교의 교사 수, 군대의 징집 인원과 총병력 규모, 특정한 연령층을 대상으로 하는 사회서비스의 공급량 등은 나이에 따른 인구수와 어느 정도 맞추어져 있다. 따라서 출생 코호트의 규모가 급격하게 변하면, 한 사회의 근간이 되는 다양한 제도에 균열이 생기게 된다. 지난해 태어난 출생아 수가 10년 전의 절반, 30년 전의 3분의 1에 불과할 정도로 한국의 출생 코호트 규모는 빠르게 줄고 있다. 소아청소년과가 폐원하고, 대학은 입학 정원을 채우지 못하고, 군은 병력자원 부족에 직면하는 등, 총인구가 본격적으로 감소하기 전에 이미 사회경제적 불균형의 징후가 뚜렷한 것은 인구 구조 변화의 영향을 반영한다. 그렇다고 오늘날 한국의 상황이 더 나쁘기만 한 것은 아니다. 기술, 시장, 제도 변화에 힘입어 21세기의 세계는 700년 전에 비해 인구 변화의 충격에 대응할 수 있는 수단이 늘었다. 노동력 확대 여력이 없었던 14세기 유럽과 달리, 현재의 한국에서는 여성과 고령자의 경제활동참가율을 높이고 외국 인력 유입을 늘림으로써 노동인구 감소를 어느 정도 완화할 수 있다. 교육·훈련의 개선을 통해 생산성을 높이고, 자동화나 인공지능을 도입하여 부족한 인력을 대체하는 방안도 중세 유럽인에게 없었던 새로운 선택지이다. 더 근본적인 차이도 있다. 14세기 유럽의 인구감소는 외부에서 유입된 강력한 역병으로 말미암아 사망자가 늘면서 나타난 현상이었던 반면, 21세기 한국의 인구감소는 결혼과 출산의 비용은 늘고 편익을 줄어든 사회경제적 변화에 대응한 개인들의 선택을 반영한다. 이러한 차이가 좋은 소식인지 혹은 나쁜 소식인지 판단하기는 어렵다. 14세기 유럽인들은 “신의 징벌”처럼 다가온 재앙이 지나가기를 무력하게 기다리는 수밖에 없었지만, 21세기 한국에는 사람들의 선택을 바꾸기 위해 무언가를 할 수 있고, 그 결과 현재의 암울한 장래 인구 전망이 훗날 예측 오류로 판명될 가능성도 있다. 죽음의 공포를 견디며 재앙이 지나기를 기다리는 일과 인구문제의 원인으로 지목되는 한국 사회의 근본적인 문제들을 차근차근 풀어나가는 일 가운데 어떤 쪽이 더 쉬울까? ============================================================================================= 믿고 보는 이철희 교수의 비평. 전적으로 동의합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3 이 게시판에 등록된 카르스님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
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291854 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
291854 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
291854'> 겨울삼각형
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
23/12/26 15:11
291854>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
타노스가 핑거스냅 하는거보다
출산율 떨어지는게 더 타격이 크죠
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
출산율 떨어지는게 더 타격이 크죠
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
291854>
291854>
