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홍차넷
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뉴스
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- 새로운 뉴스를 올려주세요.
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전체기타정치IT/컴퓨터방송/연예스포츠경제문화/예술사회게임의료/건강과학/기술국제외신
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| Date |
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| Name | 샨르우르파 |
| Subject | 인구학자 이철희가 본 한국 인구 (부제: 인구절벽 우려는 과장되었는가) |
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인구절벽으로 인한 노동인구 소멸. 많은 이들이 머지않은 미래에 닥칠 것으로 우려하는 디스토피아다. 그러나 저명한 인구학자인 이철희 서울대 경제학부 교수는 "'노동력 절벽'에 대한 공포가 과장돼 있다"고 했다. 그는 인구가 줄어 생산가능인구(15~64세)가 감소하는 것은 맞지만, 앞으로 나이 든 사람들이 더 '많이' 일하고 더 '잘' 일할 수 있게 되기 때문에 향후 20년간 노동력 총량은 변하지 않거나 오히려 늘어날 것으로 내다봤다. 이 교수는 앞으로 불거질 '진짜' 문제로 산업별 노동력 공급 불균형을 우려했다. 그래서 이 교수는 "단순히 한 직장, 같은 자리에서 더 오래 일할 수 있게 하는 기계적 정년 연장은 무의미하다"며 "산업별 노동력 이동이 용이하도록 노동 공급의 '탄력성'을 획기적으로 키워야 한다"고 강조했다. ―통계로 못 보는 인구 변화가 있나. ▷저출산·고령화로 인해 총인구가 감소한다는 것은 익히 알려진 사실이다. 그러나 통계에서 잘 드러나지 않는 사실이 있다. 바로 인구의 질이 변하고 있다는 것이다. 지금 고령자를 기준으로 초고령사회의 모습을 예단하면 안 된다. 몇십 년 후 고령자들은 지금과 다른 사람들이다. 고학력화가 빠르게 진행되고 있기 때문이다. 인구 전체에서 대졸자 비중이 현재는 절반도 안 되지만, 20년 후에는 대졸자 비중이 전체 인구에서 3분의 2 정도 된다. 건강도 많이 개선될 것이다. ―'새로운 노인층'을 전제로 미래를 준비해야 한다는 것인가. ▷그렇다. 미래 인구 변화를 대비할 때 현 세대는 이전 세대와 달리 물질적 여건·교육 수준의 개선으로 인적 자본을 더욱 두껍게 구축하고 있다. 이러한 질적 변화를 감안하지 않으면 미래를 지나치게 부정적으로 전망하게 된다. 지금의 연령별 의료비나 연령별 생산성을 미래에 투영시키면 안 된다는 것이다. ―저출산·고령화로 노동인구가 크게 감소할 것이라는 우려가 크다. ▷그런 우려가 과대하다고 본다. 비관의 주된 근거는 생산연령인구가 빠르게 감소한다는 것인데, 우리가 진짜 따져봐야 하는 것은 생산가능인구가 아니고 실질적 노동력 총량이다. 즉 성별·연령별·학력별 생산성을 반영한 미래 경제활동인구를 추계해야 한다는 것이다. 2019년 성별·연령별·학력별 경제활동비율을 기준으로 노동인구 변화를 시뮬레이션해본 결과 앞으로 20년 동안은 경제활동인구 자체가 크게 줄지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 여성과 장년층에서 경제활동비율이 계속 높아지고 있는 것을 감안하면 경제활동인구는 오히려 늘어날 수도 있다. 또 우리나라는 앞으로 20~30년 동안 고학력화가 굉장히 빠르게 진행되는데, 이 흐름이 고령화 효과를 상쇄하게 될 것이다. ―저출산·고령화에도 불구하고 미래 노동시장은 끄떡없다는 얘기인가. ▷가까운 장래에 나타날 수 있는 심각한 문제는 노동인구 부족 문제가 아니고 노동 수급 불균형 문제다. 20년 동안 취업자 규모와 취업자의 연령 구조가 산업별로 매우 상이하게 변화하면서 부문별 노동 수급 불균형이 확대될 것으로 예상된다. 젊은 노동인력 수와 비중이 급격하게 감소하면서 노동인력 고령화가 진행되기 때문이다. (중략) ―인구 감소를 막기 위해 출산율을 높이는 대책이 필요하다고 본다. ▷물론이다. 출산율을 높이는 것이 어려운 것은 사실이지만, 그렇다고 출산율을 높이기 위한 노력을 포기하고 고령화하는 사회에 적응하기 위한 노력만 해야 한다는 지적은 잘못됐다. 저출산이 지나치게 빠른 속도로 진행된다면 재난적인 수준의 비용이 소요될 수 있기 때문이다. 저출산·고령화 문제의 핵심은 절대적 인구 규모가 아니라 전환 과정에서 발생하는 출생 코호트 간 불균형과 이에 따른 사회적 비용이다. 기존 대책이 출생아 수를 획기적으로 증가시키지는 못했어도 좀 더 느린 속도로 떨어지게 하는 데는 효과가 있었다고 본다. 다만, 현금만 쏟아붓는 방식의 저출산 대책은 잘못됐다. ―저출산 대책이 나아가야 할 방향은. ▷단기적 저출산 대책과 장기적 저출산 대책은 달라야 한다. 단기적 처방은 현금 지원도 효과가 있다. 다만, 여건이 충분하지 않아 결혼과 출산을 하지 못하는 이들을 보조하는 데 집중돼야 한다. 현금 지원은 '경계'에 있는 사람에게만 효과가 나타난다. 돈을 안 줘도 아이 낳을 생각을 했고, 어느 정도 여건이 갖춰진 사람들에게서 현금 지원 효과가 강하게 나타나고 그렇지 않으면 돈을 더 준다고 해도 효과가 나지 않는다. ―장기적이고 근본적인 대책은. ▷현금 지원이 모든 사람에게 효과를 나타내는 것은 아니다. 장기적으로는 전반적인 사회 여건을 개선해서 '경계'에 서 있는 사람들을 늘려야 한다. 한 방편으로 '아이 돌봄' 시스템 자체가 강화돼야 한다. 연구 결과에 따르면 보육료 지원 정책 효과는 보육시설 공급률에 따라 달라졌다. 안심하고 애를 맡길 수 있는 곳이 우선 늘어나야 한다는 것이다. 그리고 근본적인 사회 변화가 필요하다. 지금은 경계에서 이만큼 떨어져 있지만, 그 경계까지 닿게끔 사회 여건이 개선돼야 한다. 사회적 경쟁도 줄고, 근로시간도 줄어야 한다. 미래에 대한 전망이 어느 정도 개선돼야 더 많은 사람들이 출산에 접근할 수 있다. ================================================================================ 두 달 전 서울대 이철희 경제학자와 한 인터뷰인데 명문이고 하루이틀이 치명적인 시사글이 아닌지라 올려봅니다. 출처 들어가서 끝까지 다 읽어보시길 권합니다. 제가 본 국내 인구학자들 중 문제인식과 정책제언이 제일 뛰어난 분입니다. 같은학교 조영태는 종종 오바한 비관론을 내뱉는데 이 분은 경제학자로서 여러 부분을 고려해서 그러지 무조건적인 비관론은 피하네요. 첨언) 인터뷰 내용을 자세히 파보고 싶은 분들은 위 교수가 한국인구학회 2020년 후기학술대회에서 발표한 내용을 참고하세요. 에서 첨부파일> [S1-1] 인구변화와 한국사회의 지속가능성 이철희를 클릭하시고 보시면 됩니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 17 이 게시판에 등록된 샨르우르파님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
183840 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
183840 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
183840'> 하우두유두
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 134
수정됨
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/11/20 15:29
183840>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
https://youtu.be/-gywT2rl1fg
홍춘욱씨도 한 15년정도는 괜찮다고 하는의견을 제시하네요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
홍춘욱씨도 한 15년정도는 괜찮다고 하는의견을 제시하네요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
183840>
183840>
