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홍차넷
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뉴스
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- 새로운 뉴스를 올려주세요.
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전체기타정치IT/컴퓨터방송/연예스포츠경제문화/예술사회게임의료/건강과학/기술국제외신
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 19/09/30 22:25:56 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | ArcanumToss |
| Subject | 검찰 수사에 대한 여론조사 2가지 비교(특성, 해석) |
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[리얼미터] http://imnews.imbc.com/news/2019/politic/article/5521493_24691.html [한국리서치] http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/09/29/2019092900479.html?utm_source=naver&utm_medium=original&utm_campaign=news ==================================================================================== < 조국 법무부 장관 일가의 의혹 수사에 대한 여론조사 방식의 특성과 해석 > 여론조사 결과가 정반대로 나오는 경우가 많아서 어떤 게 정확한지 알고 싶어서 궁금해 하던 차에 아래의 기사를 접했습니다. * 참고 기사 :- 엇갈리는 '검찰의 조국 수사' 찬반 여론조사 결과, 이유는( http://www.mediaus.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=162617 ) 이 기사(+알파 약간)를 보니 앞으로 여론조사를 볼 때 여론조사의 특성과 해석을 어떻게 해야 할지 감이 잡힙니다. 궁금하신 분들이 많을 것 같아 내용을 정리해봤습니다. [검찰의 조국 법무부 장관 가족에 대한 의혹 수사의 적절성에 관한 설문 조사입니다.] 1. 여론조사 기관별 여론조사 결과 - 토요일 서초동 검찰개혁촉구 촛불집회 이전 1) 리얼미터(RDD 방식) [수사가 과도하다] 49.1% vs [수사가 적절하다] 42.7% -------------------------------------------------------- 24일, 전국 성인 501명 대상 무선전화면접(10%), 유(20%)·무선(70%) 자동응답 혼용 방식 응답률 6.1% 95% 신뢰수준에서 표본오차는 ±4.4%p -------------------------------------------------------- 2) 한국리서치(웹패널 방식) [수사가 지나치다] 41% vs [수사가 지나치지 않다] 49% -------------------------------------------------------- 전국 성인 1002명 대상 휴대전화 등을 활용한 웹 조사 조사요청 대비 응답률 14.8% / 조사참여 대비 응답률 91.0% 95% 신뢰수준에서 표본오차는 ±3.1%p -------------------------------------------------------- ※ 박시영 윈지코리아 대표( http://www.wgk.co.kr )의 코멘트 - 질문은 수사가 [과도하다, 적절하다]가 [좀더 분명]해 보인다. 2. 여론조사 방식별 특징 1) RDD 방식(불특정 다수에게 전화를 거는 여론조사 방식) - 투표(대선 등)처럼 [정치적으로 민감한 사안]에 대한 [예측 정확도가 높다](높은 대표성에 기인한 특성). - 정치 참여도가 높은 사람들이 주로 응답하는 경향이 있다([투표장]으로 향하는 사람들의 특성). - 보수, 진보 성향이 뚜렷한 사람들이 많이 표집된다([핵심지지층]의 크기 분석이 용이). 2) 웹패널 방식(자체 등록된 패널(한국리서치의 경우 약45만명)을 통한 여론조사 방식. 문자와 이메일 발송 후 답신 방식) - 조사대상이 한정되어 있으나 응답률이 높다. - 정치 저관여층이 많이 표집된다(언론보도의 영향에 민감하고 대세의 영향을 많이 받는 [중도층]이 많이 표집된다). - 30~40개 이상의 설문이 가능하므로 [가설 검]증에 적합한 [심층조사]로 각광받는다. - [선거 조사, 민감한 정치 현안조사에 웹패널 조사를 도입하는 것이 적정한지는 논란 중]이다. 3) 각 여론조사기관의 의견 - 리얼미터 권순정 실장 : 웹패널 방식은 조사 직업윤리가 취약할 경우 일정한 목적에 따라 패널의 개인정보를 임의로 사용해 조사에 활용할 수 있는 위험성도 있다. - 한국리서치 김춘석 본부장의 반론 : 조사나 조사자에 대한 이해의 무지에서 나온 것 같은 발언 혹은 조사 방법론에 대한 왜곡이다. 정식으로 리얼미터에 조사 방법론 등에 대한 공개토론을 제안한다. 이상이 토요일에 있었던 서초동에서의 검찰개혁촉구 촛불집회 이전의 여론조사결과에 대한 기사의 내용입니다. 박시영 윈지코리아 대표의 의견은 중요한 변수는 촛불집회였고 이 때문에 앞으로 웹패널 방식의 여론조사 결과도 다르게 나올 가능성이 높아졌다고 합니다. 그리고 위와 같은 특성 때문에 중도층을 끌어오기 위해 여야는 각자에게 유리한 여론조사결과가 널리 알려지길 원한다고 봐야겠습니다. 웹패널 방식의 여론조사 결과는 야당과 검찰이 노출시키고 싶어하고 RDD 방식의 여론조사 결과는 여당이 널리 알리고 싶어하겠군요. 저는 그래서 이렇게 간단하게 정리해서 이해하기로 했습니다. - 해당 이슈에 대해 투표장에서 투표하면 RDD 방식(리얼미터)의 결과에 가까운 개표결과가 나올 가능성이 높다. - 전체 민심은 RDD 방식과 웹패널 방식 사이의 어딘가에 존재한다. - 중도층은 다수의견에 기울어지는 층이다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 ArcanumToss님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
85859 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
85859 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
85859'> Blackmore
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
19/09/30 23:22
85859>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
웹패널 조사가 응답률이 높다고는 하나, 응답률이 높은 것 자체가 여론조사의 질을 담보하는 것은 아닙니다. 여론조사의 질을 결정하는건 첫째도 표본의 대표성이고 둘째도 표본의 대표성압니다. 응답률이 낮은 상황에서도 표본의 대표성은 확보될 수 있고(물론, 무응답집단과 응답집단이 관심변수에 있어서 체계적 차이를 보인다면 non-response bias 문제가 큽니다만), 응답률이 아주 높다고 하더라도 웹패널처럼 2차 모집단(패널 전체)이 1차 모집단(전체유권자)를 대표하지 못한다면 그건 더 큰 문제라고 생각합니다. 저에게 기사에 언급된 조... 더 보기
웹패널 조사가 응답률이 높다고는 하나, 응답률이 높은 것 자체가 여론조사의 질을 담보하는 것은 아닙니다. 여론조사의 질을 결정하는건 첫째도 표본의 대표성이고 둘째도 표본의 대표성압니다. 응답률이 낮은 상황에서도 표본의 대표성은 확보될 수 있고(물론, 무응답집단과 응답집단이 관심변수에 있어서 체계적 차이를 보인다면 non-response bias 문제가 큽니다만), 응답률이 아주 높다고 하더라도 웹패널처럼 2차 모집단(패널 전체)이 1차 모집단(전체유권자)를 대표하지 못한다면 그건 더 큰 문제라고 생각합니다. 저에게 기사에 언급된 조사의 표집방식면에서 리얼미터와 한국리서치 결과 중 무엇을 더 신뢰하냐 묻는다면, 리얼미터것이 더 믿을만하다고 할 것 같네요. 웹패널조사의 언급되지 않은 문제 중 하나는 웹패널에 참여하는 사람들(설문응답자가 아니라 설문발송대상자) 자체가 인터넷을 통해 웹설문지를 받고 응답하려할 수 있고, 그렇게 하려는 사람들로 표본이 한정되며 그에 따라 편향이 발생한다는 것입니다. 그런 이유로 웹설문조사 데이터를 활용한 논문은 웹실험설문이 아닌 이상(실험설문에서 randomization은 상당부분 실험군-대조군 분류에서 이루어지기에 실험설문이라면 웹설문도 그나마 쓸만 합니다) 어느 정도 괜찮은 학술지에 내면 그냥 리젝입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
85859>
85859>
