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홍차넷
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티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 18/10/11 05:03:35 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | Sophie |
| Link #1 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference |
| Link #2 | http://pi.math.cornell.edu/~mec/2008-2009/TianyiZheng/Bayes.html |
| Subject | [확률론] 당신은 암에 걸리지 않았다 - 의사들도 잘 모르는 사실 |
|
의료넷에서 일단 제목으로 어그로 좀 끌었습니다. 제가 짧게 쓸 글은 베이지안 추론에 관한 글입니다.  한번 쯤을 배웠을법한 베이즈 정리에서 출발합니다. 질문: 40-50세 여성중 대략 1%정도는 유방암에 걸린다. 유방암에 걸린 여성은 90%의 확률로 유방촬영술후 양성판정을 받게되고 정상 여성도 10퍼센트의 양성판정 확률이 있다. 한 여성이 유방촬영술로 양성판정을 받았을때 유방암에 걸렸을 확률은? 95명의 의사에게 이 질문을 했을때 평균을 내보면 75%라고 합니다. 보기엔 상식적인 확률로 보입니다. 베이지안 추론으로 그게 맞는지 확인해봅시다. A를 유방촬영술 양성판정 B를 유방암이 있음 로 정의하고 이 질문은 P(B|A)를 찾는 조건부 확률 문제가 됩니다. P(B|A)를 베이즈 추론으로 찾기 위해선 확률 3개가 필요합니다. 1. P(B) 2. P(A|B) 3. P(A) 그럼 문제를 풀어봅시다. 1. [40-50세 여성중 대략 1%정도는 유방암에 걸린다] -> P(B) = 0.01 2. [유방암에 걸린 여성은 90%의 확률로 유방촬영술후 양성판정] -> P(A | B) = 0.9 3. [정상 여성도 10퍼센트의 양성판정 확률] -> P(A | not B) = 0.1 P(not B) = 1 - P(B) = 0.99  답:  고작 8.3%에 불과합니다. 암을 정기검사같은 어떤 [사전정보 없이] 검사했을 경우 양성판정을 받았다고 해도 실제로 암이 있을 확률은 생각보다 높지 않다는거죠. 베이지안 추론에서 재밌는점은 사후확률을 사전확률로 업데이트할수 있다는 점입니다. 사후확률 P(B | A)을 사전확률 P(B) = .083 로 설정하고 문제를 다시 풀어본다면 사후확률은 45%입니다. 한번 더 반복하면 88%가 됩니다. 그럼 다시 처음으로 돌아가서 테스트의 양성판정률을 99%로 올려봅시다. P(A|B) = 0.99로 설정하고 다시 풀어본다면 베이지안 추론으로도 많이 올라가겠죠? 계산을 해보니 9.1% 밖에 되지 않습니다. 사전정보없이 한번의 테스트로 사후 확률을 높이고 싶으면 [정상 여성도 10퍼센트의 양성판정 확률]을 내려야 합니다. 동일조건으로 이 확률만 1퍼센트로 낮추고 다시 계산한다면 한번의 테스트만으로 유방암에 걸렸을 확률은 48%이 됩니다. 1줄 결론: 사전정보와 민감도와 특이도는 매우 중요하다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 10
이 게시판에 등록된 Sophie님의 최근 게시물 |
|
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
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115888 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
115888 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
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115888'> 호타루
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18/10/11 08:40
115888>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
통계 공부한 사람으로써 본문에 첨언하자면...
저렇게 생각보다 확률이 낮은 이유는 [암에 걸리지 않은 사람의 비율이 암에 걸린 사람의 비율보다 아아아압도적으로 높기 때문]이지, 검사의 신뢰도가 낮거나 의료기관에서 삥땅치려고 그러는 게 아님을 유의하셔야 합니다.
또한 본문에서 사전정보를 이야기해 주셨는데, 여러 가지 정황증거와 정보를 조합하게 되면 당신이 암에 걸렸을 확률은 곱연산이 되어 기하급수적으로 올라갑니다. 즉, 오진? 있을 수 있죠. 하지만 당신은 아니에요.
그리고 근본... 더 보기
저렇게 생각보다 확률이 낮은 이유는 [암에 걸리지 않은 사람의 비율이 암에 걸린 사람의 비율보다 아아아압도적으로 높기 때문]이지, 검사의 신뢰도가 낮거나 의료기관에서 삥땅치려고 그러는 게 아님을 유의하셔야 합니다.
또한 본문에서 사전정보를 이야기해 주셨는데, 여러 가지 정황증거와 정보를 조합하게 되면 당신이 암에 걸렸을 확률은 곱연산이 되어 기하급수적으로 올라갑니다. 즉, 오진? 있을 수 있죠. 하지만 당신은 아니에요.
그리고 근본... 더 보기
통계 공부한 사람으로써 본문에 첨언하자면...
저렇게 생각보다 확률이 낮은 이유는 [암에 걸리지 않은 사람의 비율이 암에 걸린 사람의 비율보다 아아아압도적으로 높기 때문]이지, 검사의 신뢰도가 낮거나 의료기관에서 삥땅치려고 그러는 게 아님을 유의하셔야 합니다.
또한 본문에서 사전정보를 이야기해 주셨는데, 여러 가지 정황증거와 정보를 조합하게 되면 당신이 암에 걸렸을 확률은 곱연산이 되어 기하급수적으로 올라갑니다. 즉, 오진? 있을 수 있죠. 하지만 당신은 아니에요.
그리고 근본적으로 하나뿐인 목숨에 평균 8.3%의 리스크가 있으니 난 괜찮을 거야 오진일 거야 정신승리하지 마시고 빨랑 처방 받으세요. 그러다 안예모 안아키 뭐 이런 사람들 꼴 납니다.
저렇게 생각보다 확률이 낮은 이유는 [암에 걸리지 않은 사람의 비율이 암에 걸린 사람의 비율보다 아아아압도적으로 높기 때문]이지, 검사의 신뢰도가 낮거나 의료기관에서 삥땅치려고 그러는 게 아님을 유의하셔야 합니다.
또한 본문에서 사전정보를 이야기해 주셨는데, 여러 가지 정황증거와 정보를 조합하게 되면 당신이 암에 걸렸을 확률은 곱연산이 되어 기하급수적으로 올라갑니다. 즉, 오진? 있을 수 있죠. 하지만 당신은 아니에요.
그리고 근본적으로 하나뿐인 목숨에 평균 8.3%의 리스크가 있으니 난 괜찮을 거야 오진일 거야 정신승리하지 마시고 빨랑 처방 받으세요. 그러다 안예모 안아키 뭐 이런 사람들 꼴 납니다.
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