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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 사악군 |
| Subject | 시애틀의 최저임금 인상과 고용감소에 대한 논의 |
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얼마전 뉴스게시판에 https://new.redtea.kr/?b=34&n=3734 라는 시애틀의 최저임금인상과 이에 따른 고용감소에 대한 워싱턴대 대학연구 기사의 소개가 있었고 이에 대한 반박과 재반박이 담긴 기사 번역이 타임라인에 소개되었습니다. http://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.nhn?blogId=hong8706&logNo=221040773629&scrapedType=1&scrapedLog=221040810321&scrapedOpenType=0 흥미있게 읽던 중 해당 기사를 읽으며 이해한 내용과 의견을 정리해보았는데 ..타임라인 댓글로 두기엔 길어져서 조금 더 살을 붙여 티타임게시판에 정리해봅니다. 위 기사와 아래 글을 읽기전에 알고계시면 이해하기 좋은 사전정보는 1) 시애틀은 2014. 9.47$이던 최저임금을 3년에 걸쳐 15$까지 50% 상승시키기로 하였습니다. 이에 2015. 11$ 2016 13$을 거쳐 2017. 올해부터 15$의 최저임금이 적용되고 있습니다. 2) 워싱턴 주의 도시들은 노동시장 호황을 누리고 있으며, 시애틀은 강력한 호황을 보이고 있습니다. 3) 버클리대에서는 '레스토랑 산업' 연구를 통해 최저임금 인상이 50%이상에 이르지 않으면 큰 폭의 고용감소는 나타나지 않는다는 연구결과를 내놓았고, 이번에 워싱턴대에서는 '근로시간과 시급'에 대한 데이터 연구를 통해 최저임금 인상이 저소득층의 고용감소 를 나타낸다는 연구결과를 내놓았습니다. http://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.nhn?blogId=hong8706&logNo=221040773629&scrapedType=1&scrapedLog=221040810321&scrapedOpenType=0 는 이에 대한 기사이며, 이하에서는 위 기사에 대한 정리 및 저의 평가입니다. 버클리대 연구에 따르면 레스토랑 산업에서 최저임금이 10%오르면 레스토랑 산업의 전체임금이 1%오르는 등, 레스토랑 근로자의 상당수가 최저임금노동자여서 연구대상 업종으로 선택되었다고 합니다. (세인트님의 지적에 따라 본문 수정된 부분입니다) 워싱턴 대학의 연구는 '자세한 근로시간과 시급에 대한 정보'를 가지고 연구하였으며 레스토랑 산업에 국한되지 않고 다양한 산업의 변화를 확인할 수 있었다고 하는데 업종의 제한이 없다는 점에서 종합적인 영향평가에 워싱턴대의 연구가 더 의미있는 결과가 아닐까 합니다. 이에 대해 워싱턴대학의 연구 결과 일어난 최저임금 노동시간 감소는 '노동시장호황'에 의해 저임금 직종이 고임금 직종으로 변환된 것이라는 반론이 있으나 워싱턴내 다른 호황을 누리는 도시와 비교했을 때 저임금노동자의 고용이 감소하는 총 근로시간의 감소현상은 최저임금을 인상한 시애틀의 독자적 현상이라고 시애틀과 다른 도시의 비교 데이터로 반박되었고요. 여기에 대해 재반박은 '시애틀은 다른 지역내 도시보다 위상이 강력하고 노동시장호황이 더욱 강력하기 때문에 비교되어서는 안된다'라고 하는데 여기 특별한 근거나 데이터는 제시되어 있지 않습니다. 워싱턴대학의 연구진은 시애틀과 다른 도시와의 비교를 통해 총근로시간 감소가 최저임금을 인상한 시애틀 특유의 현상이라 하였는데 이에 대한 반박이 시애틀은 다름 아무튼 다름이라는 건 제대로 된 반박이 아니죠. 워싱턴대 연구자도 비교대상으로 선정된 다른 도시가 '최저임금인상이 이루어지지 않은 시애틀'과 다르다면 일부 결과가 왜곡될 수 있다 인정하기는 하였으나 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션이 아닌 이상 최저임금인상이 이루어진 시애틀과 아닌 시애틀을 비교하는건 당연히 불가능한 것이 사회과학 연구의 방법적 한계이고, 적어도 워싱턴대 연구에는 부족할지 모르나 정량화된 근거가 있고 이에 대한 반박에는 정량화된 근거가 보이지 않습니다. 워싱턴내 비교대상이 된 다른 도시들이 어디인지 나와있지 않긴 하지만 제대로 된 반박이 이루어지려면 해당 도시들과 시애틀의 차이점 및 그 차이점이 근로시간 총량감소를 보이지 않는 차이의 원인이라는 설명이 필요하겠지요. 기사 말미의 개인사업자의 견해들도 제대로 된 데이터반박이라 보기 어렵습니다. 이미 그들의 데이터가 포함된 전체 데이터를 기준으로 나온 결과인데 그중 일부에서 아니라고 반박하는게 무슨 의미가 있습니까? 더군다나 최종적으로 임금인상에 고용을 줄이는 것으로 대응하지 않았다는 경영자는 '레스토랑'업자이며 애초에 버클리대학 연구에서 연구된 분야죠. 워싱턴대의 연구는 산업전반에 대한 것입니다. 버클리대학의 연구를 부정할 필요도 없지요. 버클리 - 레스토랑업에 대한 연구결과 최저임금인상이 고용에 부정적인 영향을 미치지 않는다 (레스토랑업의 최저임금 노동자 비율은 10%정도) 워싱턴 - 최저임금인상은 고용에 부정적 영향을 미쳐 저소득계층에게 불리하다 (임금3%인상, 근로시간 9%하락으로 총소득감소) 워싱턴의 연구는 산업전반에 대한 것이므로 레스토랑업에서 고용감소가 일어나지 않는 것이 사실이더라도 성립할 수 있는 결과입니다. 두 연구결과가 서로 모순관계에 있지 않아요. 양쪽다 성립할 경우 최저임금인상은 고용에 부정적인 영향을 미치나, 레스토랑업의 경우는 고용에 부정적 영향을 미치지 않는다는 결과가 되겠지요. 사실, 레스토랑업의 최저임금고용자들은 본래부터 팁이 오히려 주 수입원이지 최저임금고용자가 아니었다고 생각하기 때문에 버클리가 연구대상으로 레스토랑업을 선정한 것이 오히려 의도가 있는 연구대상 설정이 아니었나 라고 생각합니다. 그래서 적어도 지금 접한 정보로는, 워싱턴 대학 연구의 손을 들어주고 싶네요. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 사악군님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
84879 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
84879 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
84879'> Beer Inside
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
17/06/30 12:16
84879>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
워싱턴 대학은 D.C.에 있나요. State에 있나요.
University of Washington 하고 Washington University 가 다른 학교라는 이야기에 놀랬던 적이...
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
University of Washington 하고 Washington University 가 다른 학교라는 이야기에 놀랬던 적이...
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
84879>
84879>
