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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 난커피가더좋아 |
| Subject | 아주 쉽게 보는 AI이야기(2) |
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[부제: 이재용 구속을 맞이한 삼성과 엘리엇의 향후 움직임과 관련하여] https://new.redtea.kr/?b=3&n=5081 (1편) 지난번 글에서는 대체투자(Alternative Investment)가 뭔지 알아봤습니다. 대체투자가 무엇인지 정의하긴 너무나 어렵기에, 전통투자 혹은 정통적 방법의 투자를 먼저 정의해버리고 그 이외의 모든 것을 대체투자로 봐야 한다는 얘길 했지요. 이제 대체투자의 종류를 알아보고, [부제]에 맞게 행동주의 투자자 엘리엇의 향후 전략에 대해 고민해보겠습니다. 1. 대체투자의 범주 말씀드렸듯, '전통투자를 제외한 모든 투자'가 대체투자이기에 그것의 종류를 하나하나 나열할 수는 없습니다. 지금 이 순간에도 새로운 투자상품과 전략은 만들어지고 있기 때문입니다. 대체투자의 범주는 전문가마다 다소 다르긴 하지만 일반적으로 네 개의 범주로 나눕니다. 1)relative value(상대적 가치 혹은 가치의 비교) 2)event driven(사건 중심) 3)equity hedge(자산헤징) 4)Global Asset Allocation or Global Macro 사실 번역이 애매해서 보통 그냥 씁니다. 1)relative value 흔히 말하는 '가치투자'입니다. 워런 버핏 등이 대표적이죠. 이런 투자자들은 시장의 일물일가 원칙을 신봉합니다. 따라서 현재 주식시장에서 저평가돼있는 주식을 찾아냅니다. 저평가됐는지 고평가됐는지 알아내는 건 그 기업의 '내재적 가치'를 알아내는 것이겠죠. 왜 일물일가 원칙이 중요하냐면, 결국 어떤 기업의 내재적 가치(실제 가격)는 언젠가 하나의 시장가격으로 수렴할 것이라는 믿음을 만들어주기 때문입니다. 시간적 갭만 있을 뿐 결국 주가는 하나로 수렴할 것이라는 얘깁니다. 예를 들어 a회사의 주가가 시장에서 5만원에 거래되고 있는데, 내재적 가치를 보니 10만원 정도로 판단된다면, 당장에는 저평가돼 있더라도 시간이 지나면서 10만원으로 수렴할 것이라 보기에 미리 그 주식을 사두는 것이라고 생각하면 됩니다.(아주 쉽게 설명하느라 뭔가 휙휙 뛰어넘었지만 대강 이런 논리입니다.) 일면 정통투자/전통투자와 비슷해보이지만, 워낙 전통투자의 기법이라는 게 한정적이어서, 좀 더 다양한 기법을 활용할 수 있는 이 투자는 대체투자의 하나로 분류됩니다. (일물일가 법칙 : http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=8476&cid=43659&categoryId=43659) 2)event driven 이 투자자들은 기업의 가치, 주가는 비경상적 '이벤트'가 발생할 때 변화할 수 있다고 믿는 사람들입니다. 기업인수합병, 오너십의 변화, 재무구조의 변화(증자), 배당율의 변화 등이 포함될 것입니다. 그런데 이걸 수동적으로 기다리는 투자방법이 있고, 직접 힘있는 주주가 돼 그러한 이벤트를 스스로 만들어내는 투자방법이 있습니다. 그걸 행동주의(activist) 투자라 하고요, '삼성을 공격했다'고 오해받는 엘리엇이 여기에 속합니다. 그럼 엘리엇이 지금까지 했던 행태는 쉽게 이해가 되실 겁니다. 3)equity hedge 이건 주로 주식시장에서 매도/매수 포지션을 구축하면서 투자를 하는 방식으로 국내의 많은 펀드, 헤지펀드가 이런 방식으로 투자를 합니다. 4)Global Macro 이 양반들은 우리가 '투기자본'이라고 부르는 이미지와 가장 부합하는 투자자들입니다. 글로벌하게 자산을 배분해 투자하면서 '인간은 어차피 단기 기억밖에 못하고 행동하기때문에 시장은 장기적으로 비슷한 패턴이 반복돼 나타난다"고 보며 "일물일가 법칙에 따라 반드시 가격이 하나로 수렴하지 않을 수도 있다"고 까지 생각합니다. 그래서 그 기술적 패턴을 따라 글로벌 시장을 넘나들며 투자를 하는 것이지요. (다 그런건 아닙니다만, 대체적으로 그렇습니다.) 이러한 대체투자를 적절히 활용하면, 실제 전통투자의 방식으로만 얻는 것보다 높은 수익률을 장기적으로 얻을 수 있습니다. 모건 스탠리였나요, 20년간의 전통투자 실적과 전통투자+대체투자 실적을 비교했더니 리스크 대비 수익률이 전통투자만 했을 때보다 '좌상향'했다고 합니다. 즉 리스크에 비해 더 많은 수익을 올렸다는 것이지요. 그러면 대체투자만 하면 되는 것일까요? 그건 아닙니다. 전통투자는 모든 것의 기본이겠지요. 여기에 조금씩 대체투자를 섞어줘야 합니다. 대체투자는 계산상으로 실제보다 리스크가 적게 계산되고 수익은 높게 평가되는 경향이 있다고 하네요. 엄청 조심해야 한다는 것이지요. 사실 대체투자를 제대로 이해하려면 ['효율적 시장가설']이라는 걸 좀 알아야 하는데, 그것까지 이 게시판에서 설명하는 건 사실상 불가능하고 저의 능력 밖인 거 같습니다. 그 부분을 빼고 개념설명 위주로 왔기 때문에 좀 듬성듬성한 설명이 됐을 겁니다. 2. 엘리엇과 삼성, 그리고 국민연금 http://www.newspim.com/news/view/20170306000141 이제 위 기사를 보셔도 무슨 말인지 이해가 가실겁니다. 국민연금이 국내시장의 한계를 넘어서서 수익률을 높이기 위해 대체투자를 큰 기조로 잡았다는 내용입니다. 그럼 이제 이 기사도 이해가 쉽게 되실 겁니다. http://www.newsis.com/view/?id=NISX20170314_0014763693&cID=10402&pID=13000 삼성이 지주사 전환 작업에 들어갔다는 내용인데, 이게 엘리엇이 요구하던 것과 일맥상통하는 것이라는 내용입니다. '삼성을 공격했던 나쁜놈들'이라는 프레임으로는 도대체 이해가 안되는 기사이지만, '이벤트'를 만들어서 수익을 만들어내려는 행동주의 투자자 엘리엇의 특성을 생각하면 쉽게 이해가 될 것입니다. 그러면 엘리엇이 투자한 다른 기업을 볼 때에도 이제 언론의 애국팔이 '토종기업 공격하는 나쁜 외국 헤지펀드'의 프레임을 벗어나서 볼 수 있지 않을까 싶습니다. 긴 글 읽어주셔서 감사합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 5
이 게시판에 등록된 난커피가더좋아님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 425
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
76127 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
76127 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
76127'> 에밀
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
17/03/22 22:09
76127>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
이전 내용이 가물가물해요. 3)의 equity hedge가 매수와 매도를 잡는다는 게, 코스피 시장에서 매일같이 사람들이 공매도 욕을 하는 것과 연관이 있나요?
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
76127>
76127>
