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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | April_fool |
| Subject | 로또 번호와 정규분포 |
|
어제의 일입니다. 부장님이 잡담하시는 것을 듣고 있는데, 문득 그 중에 “로또에서 각 번호들의 총합이 백 얼마인 것이 가장 당첨 확률이 높더라”는 내용이 있더군요. 당연한 게 아닌가? 싶기도 했지만, 그래도 왠지 확인을 해보고 싶더라고요. 그래서 다음과 같은 간단한 프로그램을 짜서 돌려 보았습니다.
이 파이썬 프로그램은 랜덤으로 로또 번호를 백만 개 생성하여, 그 숫자들의 합이 몇 개나 나오는지 세어서 특정 파일에다가 그 결과를 기록합니다. 이 결과물은 Microsoft Excel에서 열어볼 수가 있지요. 그리고, 그 결과물을 엑셀에서 분산형 차트로 그려보면 다음과 같습니다.
…어디서 많이 본 듯한 모양의 그래프가 나왔습니다. 제가 듣기로, 이런 모양을 가리켜 [정규분포]라고 한다고 하더군요. 그러면, 저 그래프에서 가장 높은 값(＝가장 많이 나온 값)은 어디일까요? 생각해보면, 로또의 각 숫자를 더한 값 중 가장 작은 수는 1＋2＋3＋4＋5＋6＝21이고, 가장 큰 수는 45＋44＋43＋42＋41＋40＝255입니다. (21＋255)÷2＝138이지요. 실제로 생성된 파일의 데이터를 살펴보아도, 138 부근의 값이 가장 많이 나온 것을 알 수 있습니다. 다시 말해서, 이론적으로 로또의 각 숫자의 합이 138과 유사한 경우가 상대적으로 당첨 확률이 높다는 결론이 나옵니다. 이걸 응용하면 옛날에 타임라인에 올렸던 로또번호 생성 프로그램을 개량할 수 있을 것 같아요. 이상, 오늘의 월도짓이었습니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3 이 게시판에 등록된 April_fool님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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69246 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
69246 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
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69246'> ffs
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17/02/08 10:54
69246>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
정규분포(normal distribution)이 normal로 불리는 이유중 하나지요. 거의 모든 종류의 분포를 계속 더하면 정규분포에 수렴하게 됩니다.
예를 들어 주사위롤도 100번 돌려서 나온수를 합하는 시뮬레이션으로 기록하면 정규분포가 되죠. (기대값 3.5)*100 중앙값이 3500이 될겁니다.
직관적으로 쉽게 주사위 2개 던지면 7나올 확률이 제일 높죠. 그다음으로 6과 8이고 등등
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예를 들어 주사위롤도 100번 돌려서 나온수를 합하는 시뮬레이션으로 기록하면 정규분포가 되죠. (기대값 3.5)*100 중앙값이 3500이 될겁니다.
직관적으로 쉽게 주사위 2개 던지면 7나올 확률이 제일 높죠. 그다음으로 6과 8이고 등등
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