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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | Zel |
| Subject | 메르스 슈퍼스프레더 (Superspreader)? |
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그냥 메르스 관련 글을 생각날때 마다 쓰기로 했습니다. 어짜피 이슈기도 하고 그냥 저도 들은 내용을 정리하고 싶어서요. 오늘 메르스 환자가 50명으로 늘었습니다 (9명증가). 먼저 이 표를 봐 주시기 바랍니다. 2일 전 상황이지만 현재 전파를 이해하는데 가장 도움이 되는 것 같습니다.  이 표를 보고 나면 결론은. 한국에서 메르스를 옮긴 사람은 세명 뿐입니다. 1번/16번/14번. 8명 이상을 감염시킨사람을 슈퍼스프레더라고 한답니다. http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/06/04/412046893/viral-superspreader-how-one-man-triggered-a-deadly-mers-outbreak 이중 1번은 아직도 새발병자를 만들고는 있으나 (오늘도 3명) 잠복기 등등을 생각하면 거의 신환은 안생길걸로 생각하고, 1번의 배우자는 오늘 완치판정 후 퇴원하였습니다. 16번 환자는 위의 표 외에 36,38,45번환자 세 명을 더 전염시켜서 총 7명의 환자에 전염시켰습니다. 이 환자의 전염은 현재 진행중입니다. 그리고 문제의 14번 환자는 의료진인 35번 뿐 아니라 9명을 더 전파시켰습니다. 그리고 이 중 오늘 발병한 5인 중의 4인은 27-29일 삼성서울병원 응급실 환자, 1인은 응급실 보호자입니다. 이 후 이 환자는 5월 29일 입원합니다. 제 생각에는 입원 후에는 전파를 많이 시켰을것으로 생각되지는 않습니다. 처음 평택의 1번환자는 메르스인지 모르고 이 사태가 벌어진거고, 14번 환자는 음압병동에서 나름 잘 격리되었을거라고 생각합니다. 그럼 문제는 말씀 드린대로 이 5/27~ 5/29 응급실에서 접촉된 사람에 대한 추가 발병은 계속 될겁니다. 제 예상으로는 백여명 가까이 될 수도 있을 것 같습니다. 평택 2차병원의 병동과 서울 빅4 응급실과는 유동인구가 비교가 안됩니다. 의료진 1명도 추가감염 http://www.vop.co.kr/A00000896515.html 이 있는걸로 확인됩니다만 아직 공식집계에는 빠져 있습니다. 그런데 생각해 봅시다. 1번 환자에서 수십명이 전염되었지만 이 중 3차 감염을 일으킨 사람은 2명 뿐입니다. 나머지 사람들은 아직까지 아무도 3차감염을 안일으켰습니다. 특히 초기에 진단 받은 사람들은 지금은 많이들 완치되고 있고 실제적 전염력이 발병초기에 집중된다는 걸 감안하면 이제 감염력은 거의 없습니다. 게다가 초기 감염환자들은 아예 관리가 안됬기 때문에 접촉이 수십명씩 있었을겁니다. 그래도 감염이 없었어요. 물론 14/16번 환자에게서 감염된 새발병자 중에서 다시 슈퍼스프레더가 생기지 말라는 법은 없습니다. 이렇게 전체적으로 감염은 제한적이나 몇명의 슈퍼스프레더를 통해서 널뛰기를 한다면 메르스 사태는 생각보다는 저강도로 오래 갈 수 있습니다. 지금부터 메르스사태를 지켜보는 포인트는.. 전체 환자수의 증가도 있지만 이 2명의 (16,14번) 3차 감염 슈퍼스프레더를 통하지 않고 다른 루트로 감염된 환자가 발생하는 지 입니다. 1명이라고 발생한다면 그 감염을 일으킨 환자도 슈퍼스프레더로 인지하고 대처를 하는 것이 좋을 것 같습니다. 돌이켜보면 애시당초 1번도 3차감염 슈퍼스프레더였을 지도 모르겠습니다. 낙타를 통하지 않고. 의료진 및 방역당국은 왜 이들만 슈퍼스프레더인지. 역학적 특징이 있는지 등등을 면밀히 살펴서 새로운 슈퍼스프레더를 막는 것을 키로 삼아야 하고, 상대적으로 감염을 일으키지 않은 환자에서의 접촉보다는 이 슈퍼스프레더환자와의 접촉한 인원에 대한 광범위 역학조사와 격리가 더 효율적이라고 생각합니다. 보건당국이 되었던 서울시가 되었던 잠복기의 35번 환자의 일반 접촉보다는 이 기간 응급실방문자에 대한 접촉자 관리에 방점이 찍혀야 합니다. 세줄요약 1. 1번 16번 14번이 슈퍼스프레더다 2. 슈퍼스프레더 외에는 감염을 일으키지 않았다. 3. 새로운 슈퍼스프레더가 발생하는지 지켜보자. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 Zel님의 최근 게시물
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3268 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
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Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/06/06 10:03
3268>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
슈퍼스프레더들은 신체적인 문제에 기인하여 발생하는건가요 아니면 활동반경등의 차이에 의해 발생하는건가요?
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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