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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 24/05/28 19:35:14 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name |  kaestro |
| Link #1 | https://kaestro.github.io/%EA%B2%8C%EC%9E%84%EC%9D%B4%EC%95%BC%EA%B8%B0/2024/05/28/%EC%9A%B0%EB%A7%88%EB%AC%B4%EC%8A%A4%EB%A9%94-%EA%B0%9C%EB%A1%A0-2.html |
| Subject | 우마무스메 육성 개론(2) - 인자작 없는 육성은 도박이다 |
간단한 계산으로 이해하는 타협의 이유우마무스메라는 게임은 수많은 확률의 교집합으로 이루어져있고, 이 때문에 타협을 할 기준을 정해두지 않으면 이는 단순히 운을 믿고 도박을 하는 것과 다를 바가 없다고 저는 생각합니다. 이를 위해 그랜드라이브 막바지 시점(2024-04-27)에서 충족 가능한 에이스마의 예시를 통해 왜 그런지 한번 이야기해보려 합니다. 만약 본인이 이번 챔피언스 미팅인 카프리콘배(2024-05-04 ~ 2024-05-10)에 출주시킬 우마무스메 중 하나로 킹 헤일로를 선택했다고 가정해보겠습니다. 보통 이야기하는 좋은 우마무스메의 기준이 되는 몇 가지를 예시로 이것이 얼마나 이루어지기 힘든지 한 번 살펴보겠습니다. 추가로 각각에 따른 가정을 해보겠습니다. 그렇다면 위의 가정을 기준으로 잔디/단거리 둘 중 하나라도 적성이 S이면서, 스피드 1500에 파워 1100인 우마무스메가 필수 금딱 스킬을 모두 보유할 확률은 다음과 같습니다. (0.25 + 0.25 - 0.25 * 0.25) * 0.2 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.0315 = 3.15% 즉, 모든게 다 완벽하게 갖춰진 상태에서 여러분들이 보통 기본적이라고 생각하는 우마무스메를 육성하는 데에는 못해도 30번 정도의 육성이 필요할 것이란 뜻입니다. 보통 잘 갖춰진 육성을 하는 데에 렌탈을 포함해야하는 것을 감안하면 이는 타협하지 않을 때 단순히 ‘기초적인’ 우마무스메를 육성하는데 인자작을 제외한 본 육성에만 렌탈을 모두 소모하는 것을 가정했을 때 후보로 고려해볼 수 있을 정도는 되는 우마무스메를 육성하는데에 평균 6일의 시간이 필요하단 뜻입니다. 여기에 더해 각종 패시브 스킬과 직/코, 속/가속기를 갖추는 것은 더욱더 어려울 것입니다. 이러한 이유로 타협을 할 기준을 정해두지 않으면 이는 단순히 운을 믿고 도박을 하는 것과 다를 바가 없다고 저는 생각합니다. 이것이 제가 보통 이야기하는 완벽한 우마무스메를 육성하는 것을 목표로 하지 않고 제 나름의 타협을 하는 이유입니다. 유효 육성 횟수를 올리는 방법: 6일이냐, 2일 혹은 2육성이냐그런데 여기서 우리가 확률을 높일 수 있는 몇가지 방법이 있습니다. 그 중 하나는 바로 좋은 인자를 사용하는 것이고, 나머지의 예로는 넓은 기준을 사용하는 것입니다. 보통 챔피언스 미팅에서 주전 멤버로 사용하는 우마무스메의 경우 유효 적성을 둘 중 하나를 S로 사용하는 것을 필수로 하는 편이기 때문에 이를 기준으로 한 번 이야기해보면 다음과 같습니다. 만약 단거리 혹은 잔디 적성 S가 나올 확률을 10%씩 올릴 때마다 방금 기준의 우마무스메를 육성 성공할 확률은 3.69%, 4.23%로 상승하며, 이는 둘을 동시에 10%씩 올릴 때마다 4.15%, 5.02%로 상승합니다. 이 게임에서 적인자 계승 확률 변동폭을 감안할 때, 이는 적인자가 2성인 인자를 3성으로 하나 바꿀 때마다 유효 육성 횟수가 약 3배 증가하기 때문에 필요 육성 횟수가 약 1/3 감소하는 효과가 발생합니다. 참고로 1성 인자와 3성 인자의 차이는 약 15배 정도입니다. 이는 다시 말해 후보로 사용해 볼 수 있는 우마무스메를 육성하는 데에 적인자 1, 2성 하나를 교체할 때마다 6일 걸리던 시간을 2일이나 심지어는 하루 2회 육성으로 단축할 수 있다는 소리가 되고, 다시 말해 그만큼 완성도가 높은 육성을 할 가능성이 올라간다는 뜻입니다. 이 때문에 본인이 거리 혹은 마장 적성 둘 중 하나를 S로 사용하는 것을 필수로 삼는다면, 자신이 사용하는 적인자의 상태부터 점검하는 것이 급선무라 할 수 있습니다. 그리고 다른 백인자나 청인자를 포기하더라도 적인자의 성급을 높이는 타협을 하는 것이 필수적이라 할 수 있습니다. 다음은 제가 실제로 사용했던 적인자 중 하나인 청1 적3 직부모인자의 예시입니다.
스킬을 포함하면 최소 20일이 걸리는 육성시간그런 의미에서 스킬은 적인자보다는 확률이 널널하다고 말할 수 있습니다. 적성은 오로지 계승에 의존해야하는데 반해 스킬은 계승이나 악곡과 같은 시나리오 이벤트, 스킬 힌트, 레이스 보상, 랜덤 카드 이벤트 등 다양한 방법으로 얻을 수 있기 때문입니다. 그렇지만 이 역시도 필수적으로 획득해야하는 흰딱 스킬이라는 것이 가끔은 존재합니다. 대표적으로 추입마인 킹 헤일로의 경우 ‘직선주파’ 혹은 ‘뒤처지기 방지’와 같은 스킬을 획득하는 것을 필수로 여기는 경우가 많습니다. 그나마 각질 스킬이고 널리 쓰이는 카드인 Mr.CB의 스킬 힌트로도 획득 가능한 직선주파 스킬을 획득하는 확률을 높게 쳐서 40%라고 가정하더라도, 인자작이 되어있지 않을 때 파인 모션, 토카이 테이오, 오구리 캡 이외의 카드로 힌트를 통해 획득하는 것이 불가능하다 봐야하는 뒤처지기 방지의 경우 획득 확률을 10% 정도로 가정했을 때 둘 중 하나의 유효 흰딱 가속기를 획득할 확률은 다음과 같습니다. [0.4 + 0.1 - 0.4 * 0.1 = 0.46 = 46%]이는 아까의 기준과 합쳐 생각했을 때 보통 생각하는 ‘출발선에 서는 우마무스메’의 기준인 ‘잔디/단거리 적성이 S이고, 스피드 1500 이상& 파워 1100 이상이며, 강공책, 전광석화를 보유하고 있는’데다가 ‘직선주파 혹은 뒤처지기 방지’와 같은 추가적인 가속도를 가지고 있는 우마무스메를 육성할 가능성은 평균적으로 1.45% 정도밖에 되지 않는다는 사실을 의미합니다. 이는 100번의 육성을 했을 때 1번 정도의 확률로만 나올 수 있는 것을 의미하며 곧 렌탈을 통해 육성을 하려할 경우 육성마 하나에 약 20일의 시간이 필요하단 사실을 의미합니다. 평균적으로 생각하는 인자작으로 충분한 우마무스메를 육성하는 것은 도박이다위의 계산들을 통해 사람들이 평균적으로 생각하는 인자작의 수준으로 챔피언스 미팅에서 충분히 쓸만하다고 평가하는 우마무스메의 출발선 정도의 우마무스메를 키우는 것이 거의 불가능하다는 사실을 아실 수 있을 것이라 생각합니다. 챔피언스 미팅의 주기는 보통 한달인 30일 정도이기 때문에, 주자 하나를 테스트하는 것이 가능한 정도까지 육성하는데에만 그것도 적성을 거리와 마장 둘 중 하나만 타협해서 붙여도 약 20일이 걸린다면 셋이나 되는 주자를 육성하는 것은 불가능에 가까우며 사실상 도박에 가깝다 할 수 있습니다. 그런데 20일을 주자로 사용할 우마무스메가 아니라 인자로 사용할 우마무스메를 육성하는 데에 사용한다면 확률을 획기적으로 끌어올릴 수 있게 되고, 이는 렌탈을 이용해서 고점마를 육성하는 것이 아니라 인자작을 하는 데 사용하는 것이 훨씬 효율적이란 사실을 의미합니다. 이러한 이유로 저는 사람들이 평균적으로 ‘충분하다’라고 평가하는 인자작의 수준은 충분에서 거리가 멀며 본인이 생각하는 것보다 훨씬 도박에 가깝다 생각합니다. 그러므로 본인이 진지하게 챔피언스 미팅에 출전하고자 하는 트레이너이고 인자작을 남들만큼 했다고 생각한다면, 그것이 충분한 것에서 많이 모자라며 훨씬 공을 들일 필요가 있습니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 kaestro님의 최근 게시물
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193126 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
193126 class='vcm '>
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193126'> Paraaaade
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24/05/28 20:28
193126>삭제 주소복사
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보통은 청인자를 잘 포기못하시더라구요. 눈에 바로 보이는 스탯인지라.
청3을 유지하면서 적2 -> 적3으로 인자를 업그레이드 하는데 드는 기대 육성 수가 너무 크다보니...
또 반대로 맨날 이런거 계산하면서 하다보니 정신나갈 거 같기도 했습니다.
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Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
청3을 유지하면서 적2 -> 적3으로 인자를 업그레이드 하는데 드는 기대 육성 수가 너무 크다보니...
또 반대로 맨날 이런거 계산하면서 하다보니 정신나갈 거 같기도 했습니다.
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Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
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