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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | 카르스 |
| File #1 | chart149501_1Img.png (31.7 KB), Download : 5 |
| Subject | 그냥 쉬었다는 청년들 증가, 정말 노동시장 상황 악화 때문인가 |
 근래 몇 년 사이 '그냥 쉬었다'고 응답하는 청년들이 크게 늘어났고, 그와 관련된 기사도 많이 나오고 있습니다. 그러면서 청년 노동시장이 악화된 게 원인이 아니냐는 지적이 많이 나옵니다. 하지만 여러 통계를 봐온 입장에서, 단순히 청년 노동시장의 악화 하나로 설명하기 어려운 현상이라고 봅니다. 사진에서 보이듯이, 몇 년 사이 쉬었음 청년의 급증은 고용률은 증가하고 실업률은 감소하는 트렌드와 동시에 나타났거든요. 물론 실업률이 줄어드는 건 실업자가 취업자로 전환해도, 실업자가 비경제활동인구로 전환돼도 모두 가능하기에, 실업자들이 노동시장 상황을 비관해서 비경제활동인구로 전환했을 뿐일 수 있습니다. 그게 많은 언론에서 지지되는 해석이죠. 하지만 그것도 문제가 있는 해석입니다. 정말로 실업률 감소를 비경제활동인구 증가와 연관되어 해석해야 될까요? , 우선 2000-2010년대 청년 실업률은 장기적으로 약하게나마 상승하는 추세였는데, 이는 청년 실업이 갈수록 심해진다는 체감과도 일맥상통합니다. 청년 실업률 절대치는 몰라도 트렌드는 얼추 현실을 반영한 것이지요. 이게 몇년새 뒤집혀서, 작년 청년 실업률은 2000년 이후 최저치로 급감했고 월별통계 보면 이 트렌드는 올해까지 이어집니다. 실업률 지표의 한계를 고려한 확장실업률 지표로 봐도 비슷합니다. 2000-2010년대의 청년 실업 양상이 개선되었든 악화되었든 과거와는 확 달라졌다는 이야기입니다. 그런 상황에서 청년 실업률 급감을 비경제활동인구 급증으로 설명한다는 건, 지금 청년 실업은 2000-2010년대와 차원이 다른 수준으로 심각하다는 이야기입니다. 지금 고용 상황이 정말 나쁘긴 합니다만 과연 그 정도일까요?  맨 앞에 언급한 고용률 트렌드에서 보듯, 작년까지 고용률의 급증세와 양립 불가능한 해석이라는 문제가 있습니다. 정말 청년 실업이 역대 최악으로 심각하다면, 어떻게 노동시장에 참여하는 청년들의 비율이 높아질 수 있을까요? 올해 청년 고용률은 작년보다는 조금 낮아졌지만 근래 높아진 추세를 뒤집었다기엔 정도가 약합니다. 그리고 그 낮아졌다는 고용률도 분해해보면 15-19세나 20-24세에 집중되어 있고, 대졸자가 사회진출할 연령대인 25-29세 고용률은 올해도 높아졌습니다.  (맨 위의 첫번째 링크 기사에 나온 사진입니다) 더 나아가, 쉬었음 청년인구 증가 현상은 고용률이 작년까지만 높아졌던 청년(15-29세)와 달리 꺾이지 않고 계속 높아진 30대에서도 발생했습니다. 그리고 고용률 역대 최고 찍어서 쉬었음 인구가 급감했을법한 2022년에도 청년 쉬었음 인구 감소는 미미했지요. 개인적 해석은 셋 있는데  1) 위에 나온 성별, 연령별 고용률 표에서도 암시하듯이, 근래 남녀 청년 노동시장 상황이 상반되는데 이를 합산하면서 생기는 착시입니다. 여성 청년 고용률의 엄청난 상승세가 나타나는데, 남성 청년은 고용률이 그대로거나 오히려 줄었습니다. 2) 공채의 감소, 수시 채용의 확대로 경력직 채용이 늘어나 이직 중간에 일을 잠시 쉬는 경우가 늘어났습니다. 3) 청년들의 성향 변화. 게임을 포함한 여가 문화의 급속한 발달(https://new.redtea.kr/recommended/1162에서 보듯이, 미국 청년 남성 노동공급 감소의 절반 가까이가 게임 때문이라는 이야기도 있습니다), 워라밸의 중시 강화(이는 청년들 시간제 일자리의 증가로 암시됩니다. 대부분은 시간제 일자리를 자발적으로 선택했으며, 일자리에 만족한다고 하고요), 정신 건강의 악화와 번아웃 증가, 청년 부모 세대의 (평균적인) 자산 증가 등은 노동시장 상황과 별개로 몇몇 부류의 청년들을 노동시장에서 벗어나게 하는 효과가 있으리라 생각합니다. 제가 지적했든 쉬었음 인구 증가는 설명이 어려운 현상이라 그런지, http://news.heraldcorp.com/view.php?ud=20230809000657 정부에서도 용역을 해서 정확한 원인을 판단한다고 하네요. 이유가 뭐가 됐든 한국 노동시장에 큰 변화가 벌어진 것 같은데, 우리가 그 변화에 제대로 적응할 수 있을지 모르겠네요. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 5 이 게시판에 등록된 카르스님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 22
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
187142 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
187142 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
187142'> 왼쪽의지배자
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
23/08/22 13:57
187142>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
사실 이 내용으로 티타임을 저도 쓰고 싶었는데
말씀하신 노동시장의 악화 하나로 설명은 불가능할 수 있으나, 적지 않은 부분을 차지하는 것은 맞다고 생각합니다.
재직자와 취준생을 근 몇 년간 반복하면서 느낀 건 갈수록 최악의 고용 시장이 만들어 지고 있다는 것이었습니다.
[청년 실업이 역대 최악으로 심각하다면, 어떻게 노동시장에 참여하는 청년들의 비율이 높아질 수 있을까요?]란 질문을 중심으로도 생각해봤는데
일단 고용시장이 정규직, 대우가 높고 낮음을 떠나 정규직 자체의... 더 보기
말씀하신 노동시장의 악화 하나로 설명은 불가능할 수 있으나, 적지 않은 부분을 차지하는 것은 맞다고 생각합니다.
재직자와 취준생을 근 몇 년간 반복하면서 느낀 건 갈수록 최악의 고용 시장이 만들어 지고 있다는 것이었습니다.
[청년 실업이 역대 최악으로 심각하다면, 어떻게 노동시장에 참여하는 청년들의 비율이 높아질 수 있을까요?]란 질문을 중심으로도 생각해봤는데
일단 고용시장이 정규직, 대우가 높고 낮음을 떠나 정규직 자체의... 더 보기
사실 이 내용으로 티타임을 저도 쓰고 싶었는데
말씀하신 노동시장의 악화 하나로 설명은 불가능할 수 있으나, 적지 않은 부분을 차지하는 것은 맞다고 생각합니다.
재직자와 취준생을 근 몇 년간 반복하면서 느낀 건 갈수록 최악의 고용 시장이 만들어 지고 있다는 것이었습니다.
[청년 실업이 역대 최악으로 심각하다면, 어떻게 노동시장에 참여하는 청년들의 비율이 높아질 수 있을까요?]란 질문을 중심으로도 생각해봤는데
일단 고용시장이 정규직, 대우가 높고 낮음을 떠나 정규직 자체의 비중이 낮아졌다고 생각합니다.
더욱이 계약직 채용에 대해서도 2년 이후 연장 계약이 불가능하다는 건 낮은 고용의 질에 끼지 못할 정도로 중구난방의 계약직들이 생겨나고 있다고 봅니다.
1. 11개월 단위 계약(퇴직금 미지급을 위해?)
2. 육휴 대체채용(대부분의 공고에서 복귀시 짤린다고 명시)
3. 체험형 인턴의 급증
4. 정규 채용전 땜빵용 단기계약
물론 제가 공공/협회/민간기업 해당직무 이 3가지 분야만을 놓고 검색한 결과이지만
근 3년간 채용시장을 기웃거리며 본 결과 그 회사가 어떠한지 내부를 따지기 전에 이미 계약자체가 불안정한 고용이 많았습니다.
저도 육휴를 나중에는 쓰겠지만 육휴대체 채용은 복귀시 짤린다니...퇴사날자도 불명확합니다.
결국 20대 후반에서 30대초반 아직 미취업자들은 울며 겨자먹기로라도 위의 불안정한 채용에 뛰어들고 취업률/고용률을 올립니다. 다만 그 기간이 1년, 길어야 2년이 안되어 나오면서 실업률도 당연히 올려놓겠죠
그리고 이렇게 대기업 등 주요 안정적인 고용시장에 편입되지 못한 인원들은 저 상황을 무한으로 뺑뻉이 합니다. 탈출자가 과연 올마나 나올까요.
결국 제 경험에 대한 결론 이지만
저는 노동시장/고용시장...고용계약 단계에서부터의 악화상황이 만든 결과라고 생각합니다.
말씀하신 노동시장의 악화 하나로 설명은 불가능할 수 있으나, 적지 않은 부분을 차지하는 것은 맞다고 생각합니다.
재직자와 취준생을 근 몇 년간 반복하면서 느낀 건 갈수록 최악의 고용 시장이 만들어 지고 있다는 것이었습니다.
[청년 실업이 역대 최악으로 심각하다면, 어떻게 노동시장에 참여하는 청년들의 비율이 높아질 수 있을까요?]란 질문을 중심으로도 생각해봤는데
일단 고용시장이 정규직, 대우가 높고 낮음을 떠나 정규직 자체의 비중이 낮아졌다고 생각합니다.
더욱이 계약직 채용에 대해서도 2년 이후 연장 계약이 불가능하다는 건 낮은 고용의 질에 끼지 못할 정도로 중구난방의 계약직들이 생겨나고 있다고 봅니다.
1. 11개월 단위 계약(퇴직금 미지급을 위해?)
2. 육휴 대체채용(대부분의 공고에서 복귀시 짤린다고 명시)
3. 체험형 인턴의 급증
4. 정규 채용전 땜빵용 단기계약
물론 제가 공공/협회/민간기업 해당직무 이 3가지 분야만을 놓고 검색한 결과이지만
근 3년간 채용시장을 기웃거리며 본 결과 그 회사가 어떠한지 내부를 따지기 전에 이미 계약자체가 불안정한 고용이 많았습니다.
저도 육휴를 나중에는 쓰겠지만 육휴대체 채용은 복귀시 짤린다니...퇴사날자도 불명확합니다.
결국 20대 후반에서 30대초반 아직 미취업자들은 울며 겨자먹기로라도 위의 불안정한 채용에 뛰어들고 취업률/고용률을 올립니다. 다만 그 기간이 1년, 길어야 2년이 안되어 나오면서 실업률도 당연히 올려놓겠죠
그리고 이렇게 대기업 등 주요 안정적인 고용시장에 편입되지 못한 인원들은 저 상황을 무한으로 뺑뻉이 합니다. 탈출자가 과연 올마나 나올까요.
결국 제 경험에 대한 결론 이지만
저는 노동시장/고용시장...고용계약 단계에서부터의 악화상황이 만든 결과라고 생각합니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
187142>
187142>
