Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 278
홍차넷
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 23/03/27 17:51:48 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 카르스 |
| Subject | 새로운 시대를 위한 노인연령기준이 필요하다 - 장래연령 관점 |
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Sanderson & Scherbov (2007)는 기대수명이 높아지고 고령인구가 급격히 증가한 현대사회에 새로 맞는 노인연령 기준을 제시한 바 있습니다. 바로 '장래연령(Prospective age)'에 기반한 노인 기준입니다. 우리는 "지금까지 살아온 수명"이 기준되는 (예: 65세, 70세, etc.) 회고적 (retrospective) 관점으로 노인 연령을 삼았는데, 저자들은 "앞으로 남은 수명", 즉 장래여명이 기준되는 (예: 장래여명 15세, 20세) 장래적 (prospective) 시점으로 노인연령을 산정하자고 제안합니다. 이해가 안 되시는 분들을 위해 계봉오(2020)가 든 일본 여성의 예를 들자면, .png) 먼저 하단의 전통적인 회고적 연령측정 방식에 따르면 1972년의 50세와 2014년 50세는 살아온 시간 기준 연령은 똑같습니다. 그러나 두 집단의 기대여명은 각각 29년과 38년으로 9년의 차이가 존재합니다. 반면에 상단의 기대여명에 기반한 연령측정 방식에 따르면 1972년의 50세와 2014년의 60세는 같은 연령입니다. 두 집단의 기대여명이 29년으로 동일하기 때문입니다. 다시 말해 지금까지 살아온 연령과 무관하게 (노인연령까지 살아남은 노인들에 한정해서) 남은 삶의 마지막 n년을 노인으로 보내게 하는 기준입니다. [* 주의: 장래여명 n세 기준 노인연령을 (기대수명 - n)세와 동일시하기 쉬운데, 서로 다른 개념입니다. 장래여명은 그 연령 이전에 돌아가신 분들은 제외하고 산출하므로, 수명이 낮은 분들은 기댓값 산출에 빠지게 되어 실질적으로는 (기대수명 - n)세보다 약간 더 높습니다.] 그렇게 되면 기대수명이 높아지고, 노화가 늦게 찾아오는 변화를 제때제때 반영하는 보다 현실적인 노인연령 기준을 만들 수 있습니다. 결정적으로, 새로운 장래연령 기준으로 노인인구비율을 측정하면 기존 회고적 기준에 비해서 노인인구비율이 현저히 낮아집니다. 실제로 Scherbov et al. (2016)은 이 기준(정확히는 장래여명 15세)으로 동아시아의 고령화를 분석해 본 바 있는데,  [진한 검은색은 65세 노인기준. 점선은 장래연령 15세 노인기준] 보다시피 장래연령 15세 기준으로 하면, 특히 고소득 동아시아 국가(한국 일본 대만 홍콩 마카오)에서 65세 기준에 비해 노인부양비가 급격하게 낮아짐이 확인됩니다. 동아시아의 고령화가 급격한고로 새로운 기준에서도 어느정도 노인부양비 증가는 피할 수 없지만, 그 속도는 기존 연령기준에 비해 현저히 느려집니다. 참고로 이 장래연령 15세를 노인인구 기준으로 하면, 한국 노인 기준연령은 2019년 통계청 장래인구추계 기준 1970년 61.4세, 1990년 64.9세, 2020년 72.5세, 2065년 76.4세가 됩니다. (계봉오, 2020) 현재의 65세 노인기준은 1990년에나 적합하고, 지금은 70세로 맞춰야 그나마 적합해집니다. 21세기 중반엔 75세 전후까지 올려야 하고, UN 2022년 인구추계에 따르면 2100년엔 80세도 각오해야 합니다. (이태석, 2022) 노인들이 생각하는 평균 노인연령기준이 2020년 노인실태조사에서는 70.5세이고 (이윤경 외, 2020), 2022년 서울시 노인실태조사 기준으로는 72.6세(고은지, 2023)인 걸 보면 이 장래연령 15세 기준은 단순히 노인부양을 줄이기 위한 술책이 아니며, 노인들이 더 오래 살고 건강해지는 현실에 부합하는 개념임이 확인됩니다. .png) 계봉오(2020)는 장래연령 15세를 새로운 노인기준으로 하면 2065년 노인인구비율이 기존 65세 기준인 46.1%에서 26.2%까지 낮아지고, 1970년 대비 증가비는 기존의 14.9배(3.1%->46.1%)에서 5.8배(4.5%->26.2%)까지 낮아짐을 보입니다. 2065년 고령인구부양비도 기존의 100.4에서 39.7로 급격하게 낮아지고, 1970년 대비 증가비도 기존의 17.6배(5.7->100.4)에서 4.7배(8.4->39.7)까지 급격하게 줄어듭니다. 정희원(2021)은 기대수명이 90세 되는 미래에는 위 기준대로 77세 정도가 장래수명이 되고, 노인의학적인 노화, 노쇠 연령트렌드를 감안할 때 적절하다고 평가한 바 있습니다. 장기적으로 노인연령 77세 기준에 도달하도록 점진적으로 노인연령을 늘리는 추세 하에서 2060년의 노인부양비와 생산가능인구를 구했더니 인구고령화 추세가 현저하게 낮아진 게 확인됩니다. 2060년 생산가능인구는 65세 기준 2058만명에서 신연령 기준 2755만명까지 증가해 2020년 3736만명 대비 감소폭이 40% 가량 줄어들고, 2060년 노인부양비는 65세 기준 91.4%에서 신연령 기준 43.0%까지 크게 개선됩니다. (2020년은 21.7%) 이태석(2022)은 기대은퇴기간과 성별ㆍ지역별ㆍ소득별 격차 추이를 반영하여 조금 느슨하게 장래연령 20세 개념을 적용하였는데, 그래도 2100년까지 노인 기준연령이 73세까지 늦어지고 노인부양률은 2100년 기준 96%에서 60%로 36%p 낮춰짐을 확인했습니다. .png) 여러 연구결과에서 볼 수 있듯이 노인연령 기준을 상향할 경우 인구부양비 악화 문제를 크게 완화할 수 있습니다. 한국(더 나아가 동아시아)의 고령화가 급격한고로 노인연령 상향으로 인구고령화 페널티를 100% 완화하지는 못하지만 명백히 지속 불가능한 사회제도를 약간 버겁더라도 지속가능한 선 정도까지는 완화할 수 있습니다. 물론 노인 연령 상향에는 노인 빈곤이나 노인 내부 격차, 은퇴와 연금수급연령 등 다양한 문제를 고려해야 합니다만, 그걸 핑계로 노인연령 상향을 피해서는 안 됩니다. 고령화 가운데 지속가능한 사회시스템을 위해서 노인연령 상향은 선택이 아닌 필수입니다. 출처: Scherbov, S., Sanderson, W. C., & Gietel-Basten, S. (2016). Better way to measure ageing in East Asia that takes life expectancy into account. Australasian journal on ageing, 35(2), 139–142. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajag.12267 Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S. (2007). A new perspective on population aging. Demographic Research 16 (2) 27-58. 10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.2. 고은지. (2023). 서울 노인이 생각하는 노인 기준 연령은 72.6세. 연합뉴스. (https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20230205014600004. 2023.02.13 확인.) 계봉오. (2020). 인구고령화 지표에 대한 대안적 접근: 장래연령 관점을 중심으로. 한국인구학, 43(4), 1-35. 이윤경, 김세진, 황남희, 임정미, 주보혜, 남궁은하, ... & 김경래. (2020). 2020 년도 노인실태조사. 한국보건사회연구원. 정책보고서 2020-35. 이태석. (2022). 노인연령 상향 조정의 가능성과 기대효과. KDI Focus. 115. 정희원. (2021). 지속가능한 나이듦. 두리반. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3 이 게시판에 등록된 카르스님의 최근 게시물
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183053 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
183053 class='vcm '>
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183053'> 치킨마요
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23/03/27 17:57
183053>삭제 주소복사
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mz급인 자료긴 하지만 아무튼 청년입니다?
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Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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