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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
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Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 23/03/11 09:33:11 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | 레게노 |
| Subject | 일본은 한국의 미래인가? |
|
흔히 한국의 10년 뒤가 한국이다, 20년 뒤다 이런 소리를 합니다. 이는 양국의 공통점이 많아서기도 하지만 기본적으로는 일본은 늙은 국가고, 한국은 젊은 국가였기 때문입니다. 이젠 아니지만. 젊은이는 언젠간 늙죠. 그러니까 한국의 미래는 일본이다 이건 사실 당연한 명제라고 볼 수 있습니다. 물론 이 명제에는 한가지의 전제가 붙습니다. 바로 선진국이 되어야 한다는거죠. 늙기 전에 죽으면 노인이 될 수 없잖아요. 한국은 당당히 선진국 대열에 붙었습니다. 누적이나 인구수 때문에 일본 전체 경제 규모를 따라잡을 수준은 안 되지만, 티어 수준으로는 일본과 같은 라인에 섰어요. 체급은 같다는거죠. 하지만 선진국이 되었다는 것은 반대로 이미 나라가 장년에 들어섰다는 것을 뜻합니다. 물론 노년에 들어서도 미국처럼 쌩쌩한 나라들이 있어요. 근데 그건 근육질 60대 할아버지 처럼 희귀한 경우고요. 미국은 미국이잖아요. 흡성대법처럼 달러로 다른 나라들의 기를 빨아들인다고요. 이건 패스. 늙으면 아픈곳이 많아지고, 힘도 약해지죠. 회복력도 떨어져요. 정력도 예전 같지 않습니다. 할배 서요? 안 서요. 우려스러운것은 이미 늙은 나이에 들어선 한국이 마치 나는 아직 쌩쌩한 젊은이처럼 굴고 있다는 겁니다. 제가 보기에, 그리고 많은 전문가들이 예상하기에 한국은 이미 저성장으로 돌입했습니다. 지금의 한국은 일본이 버블 끝나고 저성장으로 돌입했을때와 놀랍도록 비슷합니다. 일본애들도 그랬어요. 에이 이건 일시적인거야 하고 막 명품 사고, 어디 투자할곳 있나 찾아다니고. 성장은 우상향 하니까 기회는 있다 이렇게 생각했죠. 그렇게 일본의 잃어버린 30년이 시작된겁니다. 30년동안 죽만 쒔나요? 아니죠. 한 20년은 그랬습니다. 좌우 쳐 싸우고 인원 감축해가면서 버티고 고용율은 떨어지고 자살율은 치솟고 그랬어요. 여기에서 지금 한국도 늘어나고 있는 3040 히키코모리 세대가 탄생하게 됩니다. 이것도 한국하고 똑같죠? 그런데 일본의 잃어버린 30년중에 마지막 10년은 달랐습니다. 일본은 한 4~5년 늦었는데 양적완화 막차를 탔어요. 그래서 엔화가치가 떨어지고, 해외로 진출한 기업들이 공장을 외국에 지으면서 돈을 쌓았습니다. 일본은 쌓인 돈으로 해외자산과 미국채를 마구 삽니다. 얼마전까지 중국이 미국채 매입 1위였는데 지금은 일본이 1위에요. 일본 망한다 망한다 하지만 자폭기로 이 미국채 다 뿌리고 죽습니다. 그래서 미국이 함부로 못죽이는 거에요. 흔히 일본이 기반이 단단한건 몇십년동안 벌어서 그렇잖아~ 이렇게 생각하는데 그것도 있지만 기본적으로는 이 10년간 상당히 많은 자산을 쌓아둔겁니다. 아무튼, 본론으로 돌아와서. 일본의 잃어버린 30년으로 빠지면 안된다 수없이 말하지만 사실 빠지지 않을 방법은 없어요. 일본이 향한 길은 좀 더 극단적이었을뿐, 선진국들은 거의 모두 겪는 수순입니다. 사회가 늙으면 젊을때와 같은 활력은 없어질 수 밖에 없어요. 유럽이 이미 겪은 길이고요. 그래서 일본이 미래다 이거는 일본이 몇십년전에 선진국으로 진입했으니까 당연한 길을 따라가는 겁니다. 그럼 한국은 어떻게 해야할까요? 유럽 선진국들이나 일본처럼 곱게 늙을 준비를 해야합니다. 기초체력 키우고, 쓸데없는 소리나 하지 말고 모든 역량을 이곳에 집중시켜야 해요. 하지만 지금 한국은 그 일본보다도 더 대비를 못하고 있습니다. 떨어지는 출산율. 이건 GOAT고요. 고용율 떨어지고요. 자살율 높고요. 초식남? 여긴 그냥 남녀가 치고받고 싸웁니다. 지금 한국은 일본의 90년대 후반에서 2000년대 초반의 니트 문화라고 해야하나? 그런 분위기가 쫙 깔려있어요. 이 시기에 나온게 여러분들도 아시는 전차남인데, 경제력이 떨어지는 남자가 에르메스를 만나며 신데렐라가 되는 줄거리죠. 지금의 한국 상황과 똑같은 니즈를 가진 주제라고 볼 수 있습니다. 그렇다고 뭐 일본처럼 양적완화? 그런 시즌도 아닐뿐더러 앞으로 올지도 확실치 않습니다. 모 정치인이 얘기한 기축통화 이거도 그런 맥락이에요. 근데 원화로 어떻게 비벼요. 말도 안되는 소리죠. 그래서 한국은 더 극단적인 잃어버린 XX년이 될 수 있습니다. 저도 뭐 정치적 의견 있고 소신있고 하지만 그래도 좀 적당히 싸웠으면 하는 소망이 있습니다. 지금 그럴때가 아니에요. 아 진짜 나라망한다고~ 이래도 그게 뭐. 하면서 그저 스포츠 팬들처럼 자기 응원하는 쪽만 위하고 있는것이 좀 답답하긴 합니다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 3 이 게시판에 등록된 레게노님의 최근 게시물 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_comment - assumed 'use_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 540
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
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Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
182596 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
182596 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
182596'> eclair
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
23/03/11 10:34
182596>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
힘을 합치자. 그런데 그 모은 힘을 현명하게 쓸 수 있는가.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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