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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 23/03/02 22:24:22 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 카르스 |
| Link #1 | https://tertilt.vwl.uni-mannheim.de/research/KTY_April2022.pdf |
| Subject | 사교육 군비경쟁은 분명 출산율을 낮춘다. 그런데... |
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흔히 한국의 극도로 낮은 출산율의 원인을 이야기할 때 사교육비 부담 문제가 꼭 제기됩니다. 특히 한국은 절대적 필요에 의한 사교육을 넘어서, 타인의 사교육 수준을 깊게 의식하고 남들보다 더 혹은 최소한 남들만큼 사교육을 받아야 한다는 '군비경쟁식' 마인드가 있습니다. 그 때문에 과도하게 사교육에 투자하고, 사교육비 부담으로 출산율이 지나치게 낮아지는 문제가 생기죠. 이번에 소개하는 Kim, Tertilt, and Yum (2022)은 그 통념을 사실로 입증합니다. (논문 링크는 Link #1에 있습니다) 동시에 사교육 군비경쟁 문제에 대해 의외의 논점을 제기합니다. 논문 저자들은 흔한 베커식(Becker)식 출산의 양-질(quantity-quality) 대체 모델에서 가정하는 자녀의 절대적인 인적자본 축적을 넘어, 한국 특성을 감안하여 타인 대비 상대적인 인적자본 요소까지 반영하는 모델을 만들었습니다. 지위 외부성(status externality)이라 불리는 상대적 지위 요소를 모델에 반영한 셈이지요. 논문 저자들은 지위 외부성이 있는 모델과 없는 모델에서 도출되는 출산율을 비교하였고, 그 결과는 아래와 같습니다. 참고로 지위 외부성이 있는 모델은 현실과 매우 흡사한 출산율 분포가 나타났기 때문에, 모델의 현실 설명력은 높습니다. .png) [1970-1975년생 기혼 여성의 소득분위별 자녀의 수. 1분위(1st)에 가까울수록 소득이 낮고 5분위(5th)에 가까울수록 소득이 높습니다. 빨간 선은 지위 외부성이 없는 경우 예측된 소득분위별 출산율, 파란 점선은 지위외부성이 있는 경우 예측된 (즉 현재에 가까운) 소득분위별 출산율.] 1970-1975년생 기혼 여성 기준으로 지위 외부성이 있는 모델(점선)이 없는 모델(빨간 선)보다 유의미하게 출산율이 낮게 나왔고, 이 효과는 저소득 계층에서 특히 크게 나타났습니다. 이는 한국에서 소득대비 사교육 지출은 저소득에서 더 높은 것과 일맥상통하며, 이로 인해서 한국에서는 점선 기준으로 타 선진국과는 정반대로 소득이 줄어들수록 출산율이 낮아지는 상관관계가 성립합니다. 실제로 지위 외부성 요소가 사라진다면 출산율이 15% 상승하고, 특히 저소득층에서 출산율이 많이 올라서 타 선진국처럼 소득이 줄어들수록 출산율이 높아지는 상관관계가 나타날 것으로 계산됩니다. 사교육 군비경쟁이 출산율을 유의미하게 낮추고, 한국 특유의 소득-출산율 패턴을 만들어낸 셈이지요. (+ 혹시 출산율이 너무 높게 나왔다 싶은 분들에게 설명하자면 1. 저 수치는 1970-75년생 여성 기준이라 현재 주 출산연령에 들어간 세대보다 수치가 높을 수 있고 2. 자녀를 실제로 낳은 완결 출산율 기준이라 출산시기 지연에 의한 템포 효과tempo effect로 합계출산율이 낮게 집계되는 효과가 제거되었으며 3. 기혼여성 한정이라 절대다수가 무자녀인 비혼 여성은 평균 계산에서 제외됩니다) .png) [지위 외부성이 있는 경우(Baseline Model), 없는 경우(No Externality)의 무자녀 비율(Childlessness rate)과 자녀당 사교육비 투자(Investment per child) 비교] 만약 이 지위 외부성 효과가 없다면, 1인당 사교육비 수준은 계층에 따라 15-35% 감소하고, 무자녀 비율이 모든 소득분위에서 2-6%였던 것이 1% 이하로 줄어들 것으로 모델은 예측합니다. 1% 남짓의 무자녀율은 생애불임율보다 같거나 낮아서 좀 과도한 예측 같기도 하지만, 한국 등 동북아시아에서 지금은 그렇지 않지만 과거에 기혼 무자녀율이 생애불임율 수준으로 낮았음을 생각하면 (Sobotka, 2021) 이해가 되기도 합니다. 그렇다면 사교육 군비경쟁으로 낮아진 출산율 문제는 어떻게 해결해야 할까요? 지위 외부성이 존재하고 남 눈치를 보는 문화를 바꾸는 건 경제학자의 역할과 당위가 아니며, 바꾸기 어려워서 그런지 언급을 하지 않습니다. 대신 논문 저자들은 경제적 (디스)인센티브 전략을 사용합니다. 아동 수당을 주어 사교육 부담을 덜어주고, 사교육에 세금을 부과하여 사교육 지출을 낮추는 방식입니다. .png) [아동 수당 지출 + 사교육 조세 부과 시 출산율, 무자녀 비율, 1인당 사교육비 투자의 변화를 나타낸 도표. 가상적 정책 시행 시가 Optimal] 저자들은 가상적 시뮬레이션을 통해 최적의 정책패키지는 평균소득 3%의 아동수당 및 사교육비 세율 12% 부과임을 확인하고, 그 정책이 출산율, 무자녀율, 1인당 사교육비 투자 등에 미친 결과도 시뮬레이션합니다. 보다시피 위의 '지위외부성'이 없는 모델로의 전환만큼 강한 효과는 아니지만, 그래도 유의미한 출산율 증진, 무자녀율 감소, 사교육 지출 감소 효과를 냅니다. 그렇다면 이 정책들이 미래세대의 후생에 도움이 될까요? 놀랍게도 그렇지 않습니다. .png) [위에서 말한 정책을 시행했을 때 n세대 (x축 Time의 수 n에 해당) 후의 경제적 변화. 후생은 Welfare 항목에서 보면 됩니다] 위 정책들을 시행할 경우 1세대는 사교육비 부담이 줄면서 근소하게 후생이 증가하지만, 그 다음 세대부터는 후생에 역효과가 갑니다. 아동수당 + 사교육비 조세부과로 인해 사교육 투자가 줄어들면서 미래세대의 인적자본 수준이 떨어지기 때문입니다. 물론 이 주장은 논란의 여지가 많습니다. 저도 좀 많이 나간 결론이라고 생각하고요. 테크니컬한 문제를 빼고, 제일 대표적으로 '사교육비 군비경쟁'이 진정한 의미의 인적자본 축적이냐는 지적이 가능합니다. 사교육비 지출이 인적자본과 무관한 '상대적 지위 상승을 위한' 요법만을 가르치는 데 그친다면, 인적자본 감소효과가 없어지기 때문에 미래세대에 손해가 안 될 가능성도 있습니다. 논문 저자도 그 가능성을 언급합니다. 아직 Working Paper 단계라 그런지 결론이 개운치 않네요. 실증분석 안 해본 개인 추측이지만 사교육이 인적자본 축적에 제로 효과는 아니겠지만 아주 효율적이지도 못하다고 보기 때문에, 저 결과보다는 미래세대 후생감소 효과가 작게 나타나지 않을까 추측해봅니다. 완전히 상쇄되어 미래세대 후생에 (+)가 될 정도까진 아니지만. 요약하자면 사교육비 군비경쟁이 출산율 저하를 유도하는 건 실증적으로 관찰되지만, 사교육 부담을 줄여서 출산율을 높이는 것은 미래세대의 후생에 역효과를 낼 '수도' 있음도 밝혀낸 논문입니다. 경제학계 최고 학술지 American Economic Review로부터 수정 및 재투고(Revise and Resummit) 판정을 받아 잘하면 투고될 가능성도 있는 이 논문은 통념을 실증으로 입증하였고, 후생분석을 통해서 사교육 절감정책이 가져올 의외의 가능성까지 암시한 가치 높은 논문이라고 봅니다. 더 나아가서 동북아시아의 초저출산 문제 해결 시 주의점까지 암시한다고 봅니다. 동북아시아는 100%에 가까운 출생 시 기혼비율, 높은 인적자본 수준, 늦은 출산 연령과 낮은 이른 출산 비율(만 20세 혹은 25세 이전 기준), 낮은 다자녀 비율, 사회계층과 출산율 간에 관계가 없거나 도리어 (+) 효과가 나타남 등 '서구 기준에서 중산층적인 출산규범'이 강한 지역입니다. 여기서 나타난 출산 특징 모두 서구 선진국에서는 중산층 이상에서 강하게 나타나는데, 한국을 포함한 동북아시아는 계층에 무관하게 강하게 나타납니다. 만약 출산율 증대 정책으로 이 규범이 바뀔 경우, 인적자본이 감소하는 등의 (-) 효과가 출산율 증대를 통한 (+) 효과를 부분적으로나마 상쇄하여, 경제적 후생 증진 효과가 기대만큼 안 날 위험이 존재합니다. 정책 시행 시 그 부분을 감안해야 합니다. 출처: Kim, S., Tertilt, M., & Yum, M. (2022). Status Externalities in Education and Low Birth Rates in Korea. Working Paper. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 11
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182425 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
182425 class='vcm '>
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182425'> 절름발이이리
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23/03/02 23:10
182425>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
군비경쟁이란 단어에서 함의하듯 상대 경쟁이 핵심이기 때문에, 문화적 기반이 유지된다면 아동수당+세금 패키지로도 사교육 경감에 결정적인 도움은 안될 것으로 봅니다. 즉 사교육비 총액을 더 쓰는 형태로 산업이 대응하며 진화할 가능성이 높습니다. 그래서 출산률이 증가할 만큼 사교육 부담을 줄이길 바란다면, 오히려 goal에 해당하는 대학 교육을 혁신해야 한다고 봅니다. 구체적으로는 입학은 훨씬 쉽고 가변적으로 (ex 서울대 입학 정원 x10배), 졸업은 훨씬 더 어렵고 경쟁적으로. 현재의 한국 대학교육은 입학이 차지하는 지대효과가 지나치게 크고 그것이 핵심이기 때문에, 그 전제가 무너지면 사교육의 효용이 급감한다고 볼 수 있지요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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