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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 22/09/01 01:20:08 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 카르스 |
| File #1 | 2022_08_31.png (459.8 KB), Download : 6 |
| File #2 | 2022_08_31_(1).png (225.8 KB), Download : 4 |
| Subject | 한국 인구구조의 아이러니 |
  한국 인구구조의 아이러니는 지난 60여년동안 인구구조의 혜택을 제일 많이 받은 나라였고, 곧 닥칠 급격한 인구부양비 악화의 상당부분은 그 반동이라는 데 있습니다. 인구구조적 이득도 페널티도 모두 세계 최고수준인 특이한 국가죠. 디테일은 국가마다 다릅니다만, 모든 국가가 근대적인 경제성장을 하면서 겪는 고출산 고사망에서 저출산 저사망으로 이행하는 인구구조적 전환이라는 게 있습니다. 한국은 이 과정을 압축성장과 매우 성공적으로 평가받는 인구정책을 통해 세계에서 제일 빠르게 밟았습니다. 출산율은 불과 25여년만에 6명에서 대체출산율인 2명 미만으로 떨어졌고, 교육수준과 기대수명은 선진국에서도 최고수준까지 올라왔죠. 그 과정에서 국가는 '(1차) 인구배당'이라고 불리는 인구구조적 이득을 겪습니다. 인구가 증가하는 상황에서, 출산율이 감소하게 되면 부양대상인 아동 인구비율이 낮아지면서 생산가능인구 비율이 높아집니다. 그렇게 발생하는 다량의 노동공급과 노동활동발 저축을 기업이 활용하면서 인구구조가 경제성장에 기여하게 됩니다. 흔히 이야기하는 '인구구조 좋아서 성장이 기대되는 신흥국'은 이런 케이스입니다. 하지만 이런 인구구조적 이득은 오래가지 못합니다. 출산율 감소로 인해 쪽수가 줄어든 미래세대가 노동시장에 입장하고, 기대수명이 올라가는 상황에서 인구폭발과 출산율 감소에 끼인 중간세대가 은퇴하면서 인구배당의 시대도 막을 내리는 셈이지요. (Lee and Mason 2006) 한국, 더 나아가 동북아시아는 급격한 출산율 감소로 인해 이러한 인구배당을 일시적으로나마 매우 높은 수준으로 누렸습니다. (Bloom and Williamson 1998, Bloom, Canning, Sevilla 2001, Lee and Mason 2006, Mason and Kinugasa 2008, Jeong 2019, Mason 2021) 20세기 중반의 인구폭발이 최근까지 이어지는 급격한 출산율 저하와 이어져서 베이비붐 세대의 인구비가 타 연령대비 차이가 크기 때문입니다. 한국도 1955-1974년까지의 베이비붐 세대의 쪽수가 전후 세대에 비해 크게 튑니다. 이들 모두가 생산가능인구에 진입하는 1990년부터, 최고령 세대가 노인인구에 진입하는 2020년까지 생산가능인구 비율이 매우 높을 걸 기대할 수 있습니다. 그 이후는 급격하게 낮아지지만. 이는 한국의 생산가능인구 비율이 1990년 즈음부터 30년째 70%를 넘겨 타 OECD 국가 대비 튀게 높은 수준임에서 볼 수 있습니다. 물론 타 선진국도 인구학적 전환을 겪으면서 최근 생산가능인구 비율이 65-70%로 높은 수준이긴 합니다. 하지만 한국은 인구학적 전환이 워낙 급격하다보니 73%까지 올라갔습니다. 사실 이 비율이 70%를 그것도 꾸준히 넘기는 사례는 동북아시아와 젊은 외노자로 가득찬 걸프 만 산유국을 제외하면 찾기 힘듭니다. 최근의 매우 낮은 출산율로 아동 인구 비율도 적은데, 베이비붐 세대가 아직까지는 노인이 아니어서 노인 인구 비율도 낮은 구도 덕분입니다. 참고로 인구구조 이야기할 때마다 줄창 소환되는 일본도 정점은 70%에 불과(?)했습니다. 아이러니하게도 최근까지 이어진 극단적인 출산율 하락은 이 매우 높은 인구배당 효과를 일시적으로 더 강화시켰습니다. 저출산의 심각성 담론에 밀려서 잘 거론되지 않지만, 아동인구는 부양 대상이기 때문에 이들 인구비율의 감소는 '단기적으로'는 부양비를 줄여서 이득이 되기 때문입니다. 한국은 사교육 등으로 아동 1인당 지출이 선진국에서도 매우 높은 편이라, 그것까지 고려한 실질적인 인구부양비로 가면 이 효과는 더 커집니다(Kim and Lee 2021). 한 논문에서는 출산장려정책이 인구구조 개선을 통해 장기적으로 후생에 도움이 되지만, 단기적으로는 정책비용에다 정책발 아동인구비율 상승으로 인한 부양비용까지 들어가 부담이 결코 작지 않다는 논문도 있습니다(Zhou 2022). 어찌보면 한국의 낮은 노동자 처우, 청년실업, '너 아니고도 일할 사람 많다'는 사업주들의 행태는 최근 30년간의 매우 높은 생산가능인구 비율에 기인했을지도 모릅니다. 생산가능인구가 많은 게 경제활동을 활성화시켜 노동수요를 늘릴 수도 있지만, 수출주도 국가에서 그 효과는 한정적일 것입니다. 거기에 노인인구도 무시못할 비율이 노동을 한다는 한국 특수성까지 고려하면, 실질적 생산가능인구 비율은 더 높을 것입니다. 노인과 청년층이 같은 직종에서 경쟁하진 않겠지만. 사실 이 현상이 한국만큼은 아니어도 서구 선진국 전반에 나타난다는 분석이 있습니다. (Goodhart and Pradhan 2021) 근래 서구 선진국 노동자들의 지위나 협상력이 약해진 게 생산가능인구의 높아진 비율 때문에 가능하다면서. 이런 노동자들에게 지옥인, 고용주들에게 천국인 세상은 고령화로 생산가능인구 비율이 낮아지면서 곧 끌날 예정입니다. 최근의 구인난 아우성을 보자니 이미 끝났는지도 모르고. 저출산 고령화는 정도의 차이는 커도 선진국 전반의 문제이기에. 선진국을 넘어 세계경제 단위로 가도, 인구구조로 경제 성장하는 시기는 이제 끝났다던 분석도 있고요. (Mason et al. 2022). 한국은 이 변화가 매우 급격합니다. 70%를 넘기던 생산가능인구 비율이 20년도 안 되서 60% 아래로 추락하고, 장기적으로는 (노인 연령기준을 그대로 유지한다는 전제 하에) 45% 정도까지 갑니다. 이렇게 20-30년만에 선진국 최고 수준에서 최저까지 급격하게 추락하는 것은 정도는 차이가 있을지라도 급격한 인구구조 변동을 겪는 동북아시아 선진국 전반의 운명입니다(방하남,이다미 2015). 제가 추게에 올린 글(https://new.redtea.kr/recommended/1161)에서도 밝혔듯 당분간은 전반적인 구인난이 발생하지 않겠지만, 2040년대부터는 사회 전반의 대개혁이 없으면 많이 힘들어질 겁니다. 사실 이 인구변화는 지금 노력해서 바뀔 수 있는 건 '생각보다는' 한정적입니다. 인구학적 모멘텀이라고 불리는 현상 때문인데요, 출산율이 낮아지더라도 인구증가로 가임여성인구가 꾸준히 많아지는 추세라면 출생아 수는 높아질 수 있고, 출산율이 높아지더라도 인구감소로 가임여성인구가 꾸준히 줄어든다면 출생아 수는 줄어들 수 있습니다. 한국은 2010년 즈음부터 (-)의 인구학적 모멘텀에 들어갔다는 분석이 있으며(Whang and Choi 2015), 실제로 최근 20여년간 출생아 수 감소의 절반정도가 가임여성인구의 감소로 설명된다는 (Yoo 2022) 분석도 있습니다. 과거대비 줄어든 출생아가 미래의 성인이 되어 더 줄어든 숫자의 자녀를 낳고... 그렇게 인구가 계속 감소하는 악순환이 반복됩니다. 실제로 앞으로의 출산율 증감으로 변할 수 있는 인구구조의 폭은 제한적입니다(김정호 2021) 미래 세대 쪽수가 노인이 될 베이비붐 세대에 맞먹으려면 출산율이 3명까지 뛰어야 하거든요. 이게 가능할지는... (Sigh) 그리고 앞서 이야기했지만 아동인구비율의 갑작스런 증가는 단기적으로는 오히려 부담이 됨도 고려해야니다. 한국 인구구조를 기업에 비유하자면, 몇십년 뒤부터 상환하는 조건인 인구배당이라는 부채를 자의 반 강제 반으로 엄청나게 사들여서 사업이 대박이 났는데, 그 엄청난 부채를 한꺼번에 상환할 때가 온 것입니다. 그렇다면 한국은 몰락이 필연일까요? 결코 무시못할, 안이하거나 잘못 대처하면 패망이 필연시되는 수준의 큰 도전임은 분명합니다. 다만 지금까지 이야기했듯이 곧 닥칠 인구학적 역풍은 지금까지의 인구학적 순풍을 빼고 설명할 수 없다는 사실을 명심하셔야 합니다. 위에서 말한 1차 인구배당 말고도, 2차 인구배당이라는 개념이 있습니다. 바로 경제성장 과정에서 형성되는 매우 높은 인적자본 수준, 그리고 노후대비를 위한 자산형성(단 공적연금 비율이 너무 높으면 안됨)에서 기반한 경제성장인데요. 이 경제성장은 1차 인구성장과는 달리 영구적입니다. (Lee and Mason 2006, Lee and Mason 2010, Mason, Lee and Jiang 2016, Mason et al. 2022) 한국은 위에 기반한 2차 인구배당을 충분히 누릴 자격이 있습니다. 그러니 사회구조를 그런 방향으로 이끌어야 합니다. 기대수명이나 교육연수로 대표되는 인적자본 수준은 선진국에서도 최고 수준이기도 하고. (다만 최근 불거진 기초학력 문제는 분명 짚고 넘어가야 합니다) 다만 자산시장은 아직 부동산을 빼면 빈약한데, 이는 100세 시대를 맞아 고쳐져야 합니다. 대선에서 드러난 한국 주식시장의 후진성도 개혁되어야 하고요. 위에서 언급한 추게 글에서도 언급했지만 여성, 노인 노동력도 차별 없이 적극적으로 활용해야 합니다. 지금같은 인구구조 추이에서는 정부 요구 아니어도 기업이 숙이게 되겠지만, 정부가 어젠다 단위로 적극적으로 몰아붙여야 이행과정에서의 피해가 최소화될 것입니다. 저는 몇십년동안 한국의 변화를 보면서, 기존관념으로 한국을 재단하는 게 얼마나 잘못될 수 있는지를 깨닫습니다. 영미권 선진국에 비견되는 수준까지 복지국가가 확대되고 증세할 것이다, 이민자 비율이 5%까지 올라가고 나름 잘 적응할 것이다, 배달일자리와 IT 직종 일자리가 선풍적 인기를 끌 것이다. 감염병 위기에서 한국이 서구 선진국보다 더 잘 대처할 것이다, 한류를 넘어 한국 문화컨텐츠가 전세계를 휩쓸 것이다. 공무원이 사양직종화될 것이다, 입시교육 과열이 아니라 기초학력 저하가 사회문제가 될 것이다. 이런 이야기를 10-20년 전에 했다면 조롱거리가 됐을 겁니다. 되도 않는 공상을 한다, 국뽕도 적당히 빨아라 하는 식으로. 현실은 어땠나요. 앞으로의 10-20년 뒤도 비슷할 겁니다. 지금 우리 사회에 대한 통념 중에서 미래에 안 통하거나 처음부터 안 맞았던 것도 꽤 될 겁니다. 물론 그 반대로 '지금까지 모든 위기에 잘 대처했으니 앞으로의 위기에도 잘 대처할 것이다'고 낙관하는 것도 마찬가지로 위험합니다. 그렇기에 앞으로는 더 열린 사고관이 필요합니다. 무조건적인 비관과 체념보다는(그 반대도 마찬가지로) 현실을 보다 엄밀하게 분석하고, 도전에 적극적으로 나서는 태도가 필요합니다. 예를 들어, 제가 노동조합 위원장이었다면 인구구조 예측을 들이대면서 '너 아니어도 일할 사람 많다'는 시대는 끝났다면서, 합리적인 직장 문화와 적절한 노동 시간, 여성 차별 및 경력 단절 해소를 몰아붙일 것입니다. 과거의 밑도 끝도 없는 맬서스적 인구폭발 비관론은 허구로 들어났습니다. 변화하는 시대에 맞춰 교육, 여성 인권을 향상시켜 출산율을 빠르게 낮췄고, 농업 효율성을 높이는 등의 조치가 있었기 때문입니다. 지금의 인구구조 비관론도 그렇게 허구로 드러나길 바랍니다. 그러려면 출산율을 높이는 노력과 동시에, 변화하는 세상에 시스템을 맞추는 것이 우선입니다. * 원래는 타임라인에 펑글로 올렸지만 펑글이고, 타임라인에서 편히 읽을 길이의 글은 아닌지라 약간 수정해서 티타임에도 올려봅니다. ** 이 주제를 제대로 논하려면 논문이나 책 수준의 글을 써야는 고된 노동이 되는지라, 가급적 간략하게 쓴 글임을 양해 부탁드립니다. 참고문헌 Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic transition. In: National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA. Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3990182 Goodhart, C., & Pradhan, M. (2020). The great demographic reversal (Vol. 1, No. 2.1). Springer International Publishing. Jeong, H. (2019). Demographic change in the Republic of Korea: policy lessons for other Asia-Pacific countries. ESCAP, Social Development Working Paper, 2019/08. Kim, H. K., & Lee, S.-H. (2021). The effects of population aging on South Korea’s economy: The National Transfer Accounts approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 20, 100340. Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What Is the Demographic Dividend? Finance & Development, 43(3), 16-17. https://www.proquest.com/trade-journals/what-is-demographic-dividend/docview/209408407/se-2?accountid=17077 Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2010). Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging. Demography, 47(1), S151-S172. Mason, A. (2021). Are Asia's Demographic Dividends Disappearing? China: An International Journal, 19(3), 18-32. Mason, A., Lee, R., & NTA Network. (2022). Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy. Population and Development Review, 48(1), 51-73. Mason, A., & Kinugasa, T. (2008). East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(5-6), 389-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2008.09.006 Mason, A., Lee, R., & Jiang, J. X. (2016). Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving. The Journal of the Whang, C., & Choi, S. (2015). Age structure and population momentum in South Korea. Development and Society, 44. Yoo, S. H. (2022). Total number of births shrinking faster than fertility rates: fertility quantum decline and shrinking generation size in South Korea, Asian Population Studies, DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2022.2054090 Zhou, Anson. (2022). The Macroeconomic Consequences of Family Policies. Working Paper. 김정호. (2021). 저출생에 대한 오해와 진실. In 원승연 외. (2021). 정책의 시간 - 한국경제의 대전환과 다음 정부의 과제. (9장). 생각의 힘. 방하남, 이다미. (2015). 동아시아의 인구고령화와 노동시장의 변화. 한국인구학. 38(4). 1-32. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 51
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22/09/01 01:55
176989>삭제 주소복사
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글 흥미롭게 잘 읽었습니다.
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