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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 22/05/12 00:35:45 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | Leeka |
| Subject | 부동산 시장에 대한 다양한 개인 잡담 |
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- 제가 아마 2020년에는 제발 보금자리론으로 살 수 있는 집 사세요.. 라고 많은 분들에게 이야기를 했었는데.. 1 - 보금자리론은 무려 규제지역을 무시하고 LTV 70% 또는 3억중 하나를 뱉어주는 신의 옵션 (지금은 개선되서 3.6억까지 해주심) 2 - 30년 '고정금리' 에 체증식까지 가능.. 근데 제가 받았을때 기준으로 '우대금리 없이' 30년 2.23% 고정금리였습니다. ?!?! 우대 받은 분들은 30년 1.4% 까지도 나왔는데.... 놀랍게도 2년이 지난 지금 '아무때나 꺼내쓸 수 있는 토스뱅크가 이자 2% 줍니다' 주담대 이자가 은행 예금수준에.. '적금이자보다 더 저렴' 해서 갚을 필요가 없는 사기급 대출로 진화했습니다. (원금을 갚는게 아니라 은행에 넣어두면 오히려 돈이 늘어나는 마법..) 이런 관점에서 보면 2020년은 사실 오를수밖에 없는 핵심 요인중 하나를 가지고 있었는데.. 왜 그때 임대차3법을...... ------------ - 현재 부동산시장 최대 화두는 결국 재건축입니다. 이제 분당/일산등.. 1기 신도시들이 줄줄히 30년을 넘기게 되는 등.. 이제 30년을 넘기는 아파트가 쭉쭉 나오는 타이밍이 왔거든요. 구축 아파트는 살기 불편 어쩌고를 넘기고 현실적으로 말하면 '주차장 문제' 가 상당히 크고. 조금 더 나아가면 '결국 전기차 보급' 에 큰 장벽중 하나기도 합니다 -.-; 구축은 당장 주차할곳도 없는데 전기차 충전 보장은 개뿔..이니. 주거 품질을 위해서는 결국 재건축을 정권 시작때부터 했어야 했는데 이걸 틀어막은게 지금 1기 신도시들 겹치면서 답이 안보이는 각이.. ----------- 요즘 부동산 시장은 오를 요인과 내릴 요인이 섞여있습니다. 그래서 위다 아래다를 예측하는건 쉽지 않다고 보지만 확실한건 원자재값 상승 + 인건비 상승.. 콤보로 인해 '땅값이 싼 곳' 은 위기가 한번 오지 않을까 싶네요. 서울에 짓나 지방에 짓나. 사실 '땅값' 차이지.. 위에 올라가는 집값 차이가 큰게 아닌데 극단적으로 땅값 20억 + 아파트값 2억 = 22억 짜리 집과 땅값 1억 + 아파트값 2억 = 3억 짜리 집은.. 아파트 원가가 1억이 올라버리면 전자는 23억이 되서 뭐 조금 올랐네? 인데 후자는 4억이 되서.... 폭등했네?.. 가 되는.. 현실버전에선 4억을 맞춰주기보단 그냥 안지을 확률이 높지 않나 싶습니다. 근데 그게 선행될려면 땅값이 비싼곳은 재건축/재개발 아니면 공사 수주를 할 방법이 없음.. ------- 저는 원래 투자, 재태크는 잘 안하는 쪽이였는데 20년에는 부동산을 해야 해서 공부하고 했고 21년에는 주식을 해야 해서 공부하고 했습니다 -.-; 그런 분위기에서는 안하는게 잘못된거라고 생각했기 때문에.. 문제는 욕심을 더 부려서 주식을 지금까지 들고있다가 100 벌고 안빠지고 40 버는 수준까지 내려온뒤 빠짐........ 인간의 욕심은 끝이 없고.. 이제는 다시 부동산/주식은 공부만 하고 긴 시간동안 또 안할까?.. 싶네요. 보통 해야 되는 시기가 언제, 어떻게 올진 모르지만 공부하면서 있다보면 온다고 생각하고 저는 그럴때까지 꾸준히 돈을 모으면서, 그 시기일때 한번 하고 다시 실탄을 모으자. 쪽을 택해서.. 슈카님이 한 말중 이 말을 가장 좋아합니다 버는것보다 잃지 않는게 가장 중요하다. ------------- 부동산 시장을 몇년간 공부하면서 가장 크게 느낀건 주식은 '우량주라는 확신' 이 있으면 존버할 수 있는것처럼 부동산은 '내가 장기간 실거주' 하는데 문제 없는 집이라면. 존버가 가능합니다. 잘 모르시는 분들은 '무조건 실거주 가능한 아파트' 로 고르시면 버틸 수 있습니다. +@ 한국에서 아파트만 집이 된 이유중 하나는 청약제도의 문제도 있습니다 -.-; 집을 한번 소유하는 순간 청약이 후르륵 가버리는 구조라서.. 실거주할 집을 싼 집부터 타는게 아니라 한번에 올라가려는 경향이 강해진.. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 6 이 게시판에 등록된 Leeka님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 22
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
173272 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
173272 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
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173272'> Hi
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
22/05/12 08:01
173272>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
부동산 시장은 참으로 논란이 많은 곳이고 많을 수 밖에 없는 곳 같습니다. 부동산은 누구에게나 필요하지만 오묘하게 공공재이면서 시장재적 성격을 가지고 있어서죠. 잘 발달된 인프라와 인접한 토지자원이 한정자원이고, 해당 인프라토지는 공공개발계획에 의해 추진되니, 해당 주택을 돈 많이 주는 사람 순으로 분배할 순 없으니 청약으로 제비뽑기를 만들어 버렸는데, 이건 뽑기에 걸린 극 소수에 혜택을 몰아준 셈이라서 마음이 들지 않습니다. 공공재가 아니라 치고 청약을 통해 제공할게 아니라 시장가로 그저 돈 많은 사람들이 살수 있게 가격을 높여 ... 더 보기
부동산 시장은 참으로 논란이 많은 곳이고 많을 수 밖에 없는 곳 같습니다. 부동산은 누구에게나 필요하지만 오묘하게 공공재이면서 시장재적 성격을 가지고 있어서죠. 잘 발달된 인프라와 인접한 토지자원이 한정자원이고, 해당 인프라토지는 공공개발계획에 의해 추진되니, 해당 주택을 돈 많이 주는 사람 순으로 분배할 순 없으니 청약으로 제비뽑기를 만들어 버렸는데, 이건 뽑기에 걸린 극 소수에 혜택을 몰아준 셈이라서 마음이 들지 않습니다. 공공재가 아니라 치고 청약을 통해 제공할게 아니라 시장가로 그저 돈 많은 사람들이 살수 있게 가격을 높여 팔던지(이러면 부자동네와 극빈층 동네로 이원화 되어 버리니 못하겠죠.).. 만약 공공재라면 청약 제비뽑기로 해서 일부 소수에게만 혜택을 줄게 아니라, 완전히 공공임대로 전환하거나(이 경우 과연 공공임대 관리주체가 시장주의보다 효율적일지에 대한 의문은 존재..), 시장가로 판 후에 판매금의 일정분을 공공임대주택예산으로 돌리는 방안(이 경우 여전히 동네 양극화 문제..). 현재는 어중간하게 두 개를 섞어버렸는데, 그러다 보니 전 국민이 생애 한번 로또 뽑기와 눈치싸움을 하도록 강제하고 있는것 같습니다.
그리고, 여기에 2주택 이상 구매와 매매차익에 대한 세금까지 정권성향에 따라 왔다갔다 하니 재미있죠... 이런 부분들을 제외하면 전체적으로 주식시장과 비슷하게 동작한다고 봅니다.. 그래서 부동산시장 공부와 주식시장 공부를 그렇게 크게 따로 할 필요가 없다고 생각합니다.
그리고, 여기에 2주택 이상 구매와 매매차익에 대한 세금까지 정권성향에 따라 왔다갔다 하니 재미있죠... 이런 부분들을 제외하면 전체적으로 주식시장과 비슷하게 동작한다고 봅니다.. 그래서 부동산시장 공부와 주식시장 공부를 그렇게 크게 따로 할 필요가 없다고 생각합니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
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Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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