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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | Picard |
| Subject | 민주당 결선투표와 무효표 논란에 대한 시각 |
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안녕하세요. 정치이야기 좋아하는 아잽니다. 결선투표와 무효표 처리 논란에 대해 생각을 해봤습니다. 아래 메뉴물있뉴님이 말씀하신것 처럼, 이게 수학적으로는 '결선투표를 한다면, 무효표 처리를 이렇게 하면 안된다'에 기본적으로 동의 합니다. (이 글은 메뉴물있뉴님 글에 대한 반론이 아닙니다.) 댓글에도 썼지만, 결선투표제 도입하면서 이 무효표 처리 조항이 특정 상황에서 특정 후보에게 문제가 될 수 있다는 것을 파악하지 못한게 아닌가 싶습니다. 과거 위성정당의 출현을 '에이, 설마 그렇게까지 하겠어?' 라는 나이브한 생각으로 넘어갔던 것 처럼요. === ㄱ) 1위후보가 41%, 2위후보가 30%, 3위 후보가 20%, 4 5 6위 후보가 나머지 9퍼센트를 나눠 가진 상황. 이 상황은 결선투표에 가는 상황이됩니다. 아무도 50퍼센트를 못넘었죠? 다만 현재 민주당 경선룰을 적용하는 상황에서 1위, 3위후보가 서로 손을 잡고 3위후보가 고의로 사퇴하게되면 1위후보가 41% -> 51.25%득표를 하게됩니다. 결선투표없는 당선자가 만들어지죠. === 정치적으로 생각해 보면, 20%나 얻은 3위 후보가 41% 얻은 1위 후보 지지선언을 하면서 사퇴시킬 수 있는 상황이면 결선투표 가도 결과는 똑같습니다. 3위 후보가 20%나 얻었다면, 1,2위 후보와는 다른 독자적인 색을 가지고 있었다는 것인데, 이정도면 차기를 노리기 위해서라도 끝까지 갑니다. 결선투표 가서 3위 후보가 '저는 1위 후보를 지지합니다.' 라고 하는 것과 결선투표 안가려고 사전에 사퇴하는 것은 정치적인 의미가 크게 다르죠. 그럼에도 불구하고 20% 얻은 3위가 1위를 위해 사퇴하는건 1-3위의 관계 혹은 정치적 색깔이 2-3위의 그것들 보다 가깝다는 얘기겠죠. 이번에 3위한 추미애가 (20%나 얻지는 못하고 9%쯤 얻었죠) 2위인 이낙연 보다는 1위인 이재명과 정치적 방향이 같았던 것 처럼요. 그럼에도 불구하고 추미애는 완주했죠. 추가 명 50% 넘겨주려고 사퇴했으면 그 후폭풍 감당키 어려웠을 겁니다. 이재명과 정치적 생명을 같이 가겠다는 뜻이 되는데, 내년에 민주당이 대선을 반드시 이긴다는 보장이 있는 것도 아니고 불안불안한 상황에서 명을 위해 사퇴하면 정치 더 안하겠다는 각오가 필요하죠. === ㄴ) 1위후보가 30%, 2위후보가 20%만 득표하고 3 4 5 6위 후보가 나머지표를 나눠가진 상황. 이상황 역시, 결선투표에 가야하는 상황이지만 3 4 5 6 위 후보가 전부 사퇴하면 1위후보의 득표수가 30%에서 갑자기 60%가되면서 결선투표없는 승자가 됩니다. === 3,4,5,6위 후보가 전부 1위 후보 편이라면.. 혹은 과거 위성정당처럼 경선을 끌고 가기 위해 자기 계파 사람들을 경선에 우르르 출마시킬 수 있을 정도의 압도적 세력과 지지를 가지고 있는 1위 후보라면 애초에 이런 거추장스러운 짓을 할필요가 없습니다. 2위 후보는 3,4,5,6위 후보중 누구의 지지도 얻지 못한 셈이니까요. 1,2위 후보만 나와서 둘이 붙어서 5:3 으로 졌겠죠. 이번에 민주당 경선 후보로 나온 6명(이재명, 이낙연, 추미애, 박용진, 정세균, 김두관)을 보면 누가 누구 계파다, 서로 친하다 할만한 사람이 없어요. 이건 국힘도 마찬가지고요. 이런 들러리 선거는 의원내각제에서도 어렵습니다. 이번 경선과정에서 이낙연이 뼈아팠던 점은 정세균이 사퇴하면서 지지선언을 얻어내지 못한 겁니다. 김두관이 1% 미만의 득표율로 빌빌대다가 '저 이재명 지지해요' 라고 사퇴했지만, 정세균은 나름 5%의 투표를 얻어내고 있었거든요. 다들 아시다시피, 낙캠은 기존 민주당 지지층, 친문이라는 사람들의 이재명에 대한 반감, 불신을 끌어내서 결선투표 가면 반명을 결집시켜서 이길 수 있다는 전략으로 갔습니다만, 세균맨 할아버지의 지지도 못 끌어냈는데 이게 결선간다고 반명이 집결했겠습니까? 또한, 추미애의 득표율을 보면서도 결선투표-반명집결 이라는 전략을 바꾸지 못한 것도 패인이죠. 결선가서 명-낙 붙으면 추를 뽑은 9%가 이낙연을 찍겠습니까.. 결과론이지만, 반명을 최대한 긁어모아도 55:45로 졌을 겁니다. 상황을 거꾸로 봐도 그렇습니다. 자신이 당대표일때 결선투표제를 도입하고 무효표 조항이 특정 상황에서 문제가 될 수 있음을 몰랐다. 그런데 내가 1위로 과반을 간신히 이겼다. 그런데 무효표 조항을 조정하면 과반이 안되서 결선을 가야 한다. 이재명이 이걸 꼬집어 경선불복을 하고 결선을 가자고 한다. (이낙연이 당대표이던 시절 만든거니 더 큰 책임을 물을 수 있습니다. 음모론도 나올만 하고) 여기서 이낙연이 '제가 당대표 시절 저지른 실수니 시원하게 결선가서 국민과 당원의 판단을 받겠습니다!' 라고 할까요? 민주당 당헌당규에는 결선투표는 본선투표일 이후 4-5일 이내 한다고 되어 있습니다. 현재 득표율과 구도로는 이낙연이 결선가서 이길 가능성은 정치적으로는 없습니다. 4-5일 시간 벌어서 대장동에서 터져주기를 기다리는 수 밖에... 그런데, 11월이나 12월, 이재명이 후보되고 한달, 두달 지난뒤에 대장동에서 뭐 터지면.. 이재명이 후보자격을 유지할 수 있을까요? 민주당은 비대위 들어가고 여론조사 또는 지난 경선에서 2위한 이낙연으로 간다! 라고 할 수 밖에 없습니다. 대선후보등록전에는 바꿀 수 있죠...? (국힘 입장에서는 뭐 터질거 있으면 내년 2월 중순 후보등록 완료후 터지는게 가장 베스트죠.) 이낙연 입장에서는 본인은 침묵하고 캠프 인사들이 이의제기(라고 쓰고 경선불복이라고 읽는) 먼저 하면서 분위기를 좀 보다가 아니다 싶으면 나서서 '저는 불복한적 없습니다' 라고 하는 간보기를 할 수도 있겠지만... 아니 안철수도 아니고... 간낙연 소리 듣고 싶습니까. 진짜 사람들을 바보로 보나.. 설훈 말대로 제보도 많이 들어오고 대장동이 터져서 이재명이 나가리 될게 뻔하다는 확신이 있다면, 굳이 이런 노이즈 마케팅으로 자기 이미지를 더 깎아 먹어야 하나... 안타깝네요. P.S) 이게 누구 주장처럼 조직적인 역선택 표가 유입된 결과라고 하면, 앞으로 '온라인 국민선거인단'의 신뢰성이 문제가 될 것 같습니다. 차라리 국힘처럼 선거인단 모집 안하고 여론조사로 가는게 나을지도. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 Picard님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 542
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 543
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 545
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 576
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 429
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 599
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
163917 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
163917 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
163917'> 매뉴물있뉴
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/10/12 10:11
163917>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
제 글에 대한 반론이 아니라는 선생님의 서두 말씀에 적극 공감합니다 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
애초에 "3 4 5 6위 후보가 1위후보와 영합할수도 있다"는 사실 자체가 "1위후보가 처음부터 결선투표의 유력한 승자로 예측된다"는 방증이 되기 때문... ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
별로 큰 의미 없는것이라고 보는게 맞읍니다. ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
애초에 "3 4 5 6위 후보가 1위후보와 영합할수도 있다"는 사실 자체가 "1위후보가 처음부터 결선투표의 유력한 승자로 예측된다"는 방증이 되기 때문... ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
별로 큰 의미 없는것이라고 보는게 맞읍니다. ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
163917>
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