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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 21/10/05 02:19:39 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | Folcwine |
| Subject | 월세 폭등의 시대가 도래할 것인가 |
|
좋은 이야기를 쓰고 싶은데 쉽지가 않네요... 최근 금융당국의 역대급 강력한 대출 규제로 난리가 난 모습입니다. 대출 관련 어려움을 겪으시는 분들은 꼭 해결됐으면 하는 바램입니다. 앞으로 전세가 계속 월세나 반전세로 전환된다는 것은 다들 알고 있는 상식적인 이야기 같습니다. 요즘만큼 사람들이 부동산 공부 열심히 하는 때가 없었죠.. 최근의 정책과 현상들이 앞으로 부동산 시장에 어떤 영향을 미칠지 생각해보면 [월세 폭등의 시기가 올 수 있다]고 생각됩니다. 1. 대출금리의 상승 : 제일 핵심 원인입니다. 작년 2%초중반이었던 전세대출 금리는 이제 3%대로 상승했습니다. 우대금리 조항을 정부에서 삭제 권고 하면서 실질금리는 당초보다 좀 더 상승한 모습입니다. [금리 상승에 따른 전세의 비용 증가]로 월세의 가격적 메리트가 발생하기 시작합니다. 2. 전방위적 대출 규제 : 전세는 이제 [대출이 안 나올 수 있다는 리스크가 생기면서 비용이 증가]했습니다. 지금 전세 3억 매물과 2달전 전세 3억 매물의 느낌이 아예 다릅니다. 이제 시장에는 월세의 상대적 우위가 발생했습니다. 3. 임대차 3법으로 인한 최근 전세시세 급등 : 올라간 전세가로 전세금을 올려주지 못하거나 전세금을 감당하지 못하는 사람들이 [반전세나 월세로 강제 전환]되고 있습니다. 원래 정보력도 보통 임대인(집주인)이 우위였는데 [가격협상력]까지 우위를 점하게 되었네요. 4. 월세 매물 공급은 제한적 : 2, 3번의 영향으로 전세에서 월세로 전환되는 수요는 급증합니다. 하지만 사정상 전세를 줘야만 하거나 전세만 주고 싶은 임대인은 상수로 존재하므로 [전세에서 월세로 전환되는 공급은 제한적]입니다. 5. 인플레이션 등으로 인한 원가 상승 : 인테리어 비용, 대출금리 등 원가가 상당히 많이 증가한 상태입니다. 대체로 전세를 선호하는 특성상 월세의 가격상승이 억제되어 왔으나 2~4번에서 보듯 이제 임대인이 월세 가격결정력을 갖추게 될 것이고, [원가 상승요인이 실제 가격에도 반영]되기 시작할 것입니다. 6. 임대차 신고제 : 임대차 신고제 도입으로 임대인에게 월세 계약은 세금 신설에 따른 수익률 감소 리스크가 발생했습니다. 이것도 일부는 원가 요인에 반영됩니다. 또한 전월세 가격의 움직임이 투명하게 보이기 때문에 상승 흐름이 포착되면 집주인들도 가격을 올리려는 동기가 발생합니다. 7. 상방이 열려있는 임대료 : 우리나라는 낮은 주택임대료(RIR 20% 이하)를 갖고 있었습니다. 이걸 다르게 이야기하면 하방은 막혀있고 상방은 열려있는 모습이라고 해석할 수도 있겠죠. 임대차3법 이후 전세가격은 부담스러운 상황이나 월세의 가격상승은 아직 공간이 남아있는 상태입니다. 특히 아파트의 경우 매매가 대비 임대수익률이 낮은 상태인데 우리나라의 아파트 선호와 겹쳐서 월세 가격의 빠른 상승도 가능해보입니다. 적고 나니 그냥 제 생각에서 끝나고 실현되지 않았으면 하는 마음만 가득해집니다. 아득하네요. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 2 이 게시판에 등록된 Folcwine님의 최근 게시물 |
|
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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163713 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
163713 class='vcm '>
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
163713'> 사십대독신귀족
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 134
수정됨
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
21/10/05 02:29
163713>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
저, 가족, 지인 들이 입은 손해 등을 생각하면 끔찍한데 문제는 앞으로도 계속 이어질 상황이라는 게 더 무섭습니다.
대출은 현재 분양받고 중도금 내야하는 분들 조차 안 해줘서 패닉 상태에 빠진 걸 실제로 보고 있자니 안타깝습니다.
임대차3법은...당장 폐지해도 이젠 바로 효과가 나올 거 같지도 않은 판에 심지어 다음 대통령으로 유력한 후보 중, 여당의 이재명은 이거보다 매우 강력한 부동산 규제를 할 예정이라 당선되면 지금보다 더 심해질 거 같고요.
야당의 윤석열은 2+2에서 2년으로 돌리지만 상한제는 ... 더 보기
대출은 현재 분양받고 중도금 내야하는 분들 조차 안 해줘서 패닉 상태에 빠진 걸 실제로 보고 있자니 안타깝습니다.
임대차3법은...당장 폐지해도 이젠 바로 효과가 나올 거 같지도 않은 판에 심지어 다음 대통령으로 유력한 후보 중, 여당의 이재명은 이거보다 매우 강력한 부동산 규제를 할 예정이라 당선되면 지금보다 더 심해질 거 같고요.
야당의 윤석열은 2+2에서 2년으로 돌리지만 상한제는 ... 더 보기
저, 가족, 지인 들이 입은 손해 등을 생각하면 끔찍한데 문제는 앞으로도 계속 이어질 상황이라는 게 더 무섭습니다.
대출은 현재 분양받고 중도금 내야하는 분들 조차 안 해줘서 패닉 상태에 빠진 걸 실제로 보고 있자니 안타깝습니다.
임대차3법은...당장 폐지해도 이젠 바로 효과가 나올 거 같지도 않은 판에 심지어 다음 대통령으로 유력한 후보 중, 여당의 이재명은 이거보다 매우 강력한 부동산 규제를 할 예정이라 당선되면 지금보다 더 심해질 거 같고요.
야당의 윤석열은 2+2에서 2년으로 돌리지만 상한제는 남기고 대신 세제혜택을 주겠다던가 하던데 전자보다는 낫겠지만 후자도 엄청 좋은 대안이라고 생각지 않습니다. 문제는 이 두 명 밖에 당선확률이 없는 지라 임대차3법의 영향은 현재보다 크게 나아지지 않거나 아니면 더 심해질테고, 공급 역시 지금 당장 시작해도 다음 정권까진 별로 늘어날 거 같지도 않아서 암울해 보이네요.
대출은 현재 분양받고 중도금 내야하는 분들 조차 안 해줘서 패닉 상태에 빠진 걸 실제로 보고 있자니 안타깝습니다.
임대차3법은...당장 폐지해도 이젠 바로 효과가 나올 거 같지도 않은 판에 심지어 다음 대통령으로 유력한 후보 중, 여당의 이재명은 이거보다 매우 강력한 부동산 규제를 할 예정이라 당선되면 지금보다 더 심해질 거 같고요.
야당의 윤석열은 2+2에서 2년으로 돌리지만 상한제는 남기고 대신 세제혜택을 주겠다던가 하던데 전자보다는 낫겠지만 후자도 엄청 좋은 대안이라고 생각지 않습니다. 문제는 이 두 명 밖에 당선확률이 없는 지라 임대차3법의 영향은 현재보다 크게 나아지지 않거나 아니면 더 심해질테고, 공급 역시 지금 당장 시작해도 다음 정권까진 별로 늘어날 거 같지도 않아서 암울해 보이네요.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
163713>
163713>
